1 in 8 chance of catastrophic solar megastorm by 2020
March 4, 2012 | Source: Wired Science
Solar flares (credit: SOHO/NASA/ESA)
The Earth has a roughly 12 percent chance of experiencing an enormous megaflare erupting from the sun in the next decade, according to space physicist Pete Riley, senior scientist at Predictive Science in San Diego, California, writing n Space Weather on Feb. 23.
This event could potentially cause trillions of dollars’ worth of damage and take up to a decade to recover from, according to a 2008 report from the National Research Council.
The last gigantic solar storm, known as the Carrington Event, occurred more than 150 years ago and was the most powerful such event in recorded history.
Ref.: Pete Riley, On the probability of occurrence of extreme space weather events. Space Weather, 2012 [DOI: 10.1029/2011SW000734]
Comments (15)
by Tesla
A giant EMP, Electro magnetic pulse could cause widespread issues, but not just the USA, but worldwide, Imagine the WORLDS power grids all being fried simultaneously by such an issue, it would take years to recover, with Military, and Emergency facilitys recieving prioritys. No Internet, No TV, No Radio NO Hackers…NO ELECTRONIC DEVICES….wouldnt it be interesting to go back 125 years to the time when none of these devices existed, As they rebuilt the worldwide power systems and hardened them from future issues. What an interesting experiment it would be to have the WORLD, stop using all electrical and elctronic devices for one week. Hospitals and Militarys would be excluded but they could participate with planning…..IMAGINE…..
by Editor
To clarify, a solar megastorm may cripple some power grids (especially at higher latitudes), but it does not generate an EMP, and does not affect electronic devices, except those on satellites, spacecraft, and communication systems. NASA has a FAQ on this subject here: http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/spaceweather/index.html#q5
by Kennita Watson
If we don’t get the megaflare, are we more likely than usual to get a larger-than-usual flare that causes millions or billions in damage, or nothing out of the ordinary?
by Davide Pintus
Wasn’t this supposed to happen in 2012?
Oh well.
by Tom Keller
But it’s the power grid that is the main issue – All the transformers will be fried, and we don’t have any spares, and they are made in other countries.
by Editor
Tom, you’re right. We are all toast when the power grid goes down (from a solar megastorm or from a modified STUXNET virus).
by cosmowrench
Considering the consequences, 12% is unacceptable.
by Tomas_James
12% chance that it will happen, that also means 88% chance that it won’t happen.
by wiseman
with a 25% chance of winning in poker I am usually going all-in, so we’re good :)
by cosmowrench
If the emp is caused by particles from the sun, we could have hours to prepare. If it is caused by radiation we would have no warning at all.
by Spikosauropod
I wonder if this is caused by global warming?
by Kyle Rybski
Not sure if serious.
by Spikosauropod
No, just kidding.
I must compliment you on your alertness.
by wiseman
sounds like the movie 2012, lol
I can’t really imagine any natural desaster that would take a decade to recover from – a little more info about what would happen would be nice (scientific info, that is)
by Kyle Rybski
It would effectively be a global EMP, so we’re talking most solid-state electronics around the world being fried. Suddenly: 1950s.
However, Faraday cages aren’t difficult to make. Even a galvanized steel garbage can would do the job. If we had enough warning of such an event, the damage could be minimized to great effect.
Just make sure those all those damn planes are on the ground.