1987 time-capsule predictions for 2012
August 1, 2012 by Amara D. Angelica
Levitated superconducting trains in 2012? Not quite yet. (Credit: ET3)
Writers of the Future has released the 1987 time capsule predictions from science fiction writers for the year 2012.
They ranged from wildly utopian to prescient.
The utopian predictions included people living in space and on the Moon, an expedition to Mars, much industry located off-planet, multiple sclerosis and Parkinson’s disease effectively cured, a network of levitated superconducting trains under construction in Western Europe and in Japan, and dramas performed by computer-generated images indistinguishable (on screen) from living people.
(Curiously, no mention of AI applications, the Web, or ubiquitous smartphones, even though the early forms were already in existence.)
But the predictions also included some hits (or close hits): we would be capable of doing engineering on the nanoscale, most automobiles and heavy machinery manufactured in Japanese-owned plants located in America, a cashless/checkless society, and heavy industry, mining, and large-scale farming given over to machines.
It would be interesting to try this again, perhaps for 25 more years, in 2037?
What are your predictions?
Comments (63)
by Justin Kesner
We will all live underground, divided into two species, constantly at war and our main diet will be lollypops.
by Howie
2037 people will print there own pot :) , but it will still b illegal cuz the war on drugs is still going on lol (I’m being sarcastic , lets hope……)
by vrshowdown
in 25 years i expect the fallowing at least:
1.driver-less cars (electric)
2.cure for cancer
3.3d printed meat
4. really really smart phones or glasses with augmented reality
5. holograms in some form available to consumers
6. solar energy wide spread use
7. robots and printers building houses (possibly moon and mars bases)
8.schools in today’s form will not exist.
9. a floating city and buildings made for growing plants and vegetables.
by jerry t. searcy
25 years from now?
If alive I will be 95 & if Obama gets 4 more years I will be “living” in an America where poverty & misery reign. Here’s how:
1. Obama excretes an executive order turning 12 million (assuming that’s a correct number) illegal aliens into voting citizens.
2. Obama showers the newly minted citizens with special favors, financial & otherwise, because they have been exploited & deserve special favor (plus Hispanics overwhelmingly vote democrat!).
3. For decades, perhaps longer, the democrat party never experiences less than a super majority in Congress and always occupy the Oval Office.
R.I.P. America 1776-2008!
by gt
Why do you take a good optimistic thread of progressive imagination and bog it down with political opinion? You must be crushed from the weight of all the chips on your shoulders; I feel bad for you.
by Jayce Cameron
Out on a limb here and say, nothing worth noting changing. no flying cars, no brain phones (at best spectacle phones/recorders)
by didilika@gmail.com
stem cell operations being available …. for almost any disease, diognosis
by Jonathan Berner
-Restructured self sustaining power grid based on solar energy collectors attached to every building on it.
-PennDot will in finally finish the Mon-Fayette Expressway.
by Piit
The Ricky Gervais Show – Karl’s Future Predictions :D
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8y-vJr1mxYY&feature=youtube_gdata_player
by Don Berry
A new, global intelligence and consciousness will emerge from the continuous expansion of the internet.
by Neil Craig
That in 25 years we will be building not just the first O’Neill settlement but a massrpduction (& ultimately scalable) facility for them., ultimately by the million.
There will still be climate alarmists though I think it less than 50% that they will still be pushing warming.
by John
After figuring out the brain work, there comes access to control feelings, emotions and view of the world around. Also it will show everybody the illusion of self. The new scientific version of buddhism will take over the minds. With abundantly available feeling of happiness and joy, they will no longer be aim. What is left as the reason-to-live is the pure interest in how this world works and why it came to existence. With intelligence amplification this will be figured out fast. After that the gods can choose to die or do sth else, we can’t tell now.
by Vin
Religion reduced in influence to the status of some embarrassing personal idiosyncrasy furtively done in private with the lights off.
Emergence of the ‘Teme’ (tech/AI meme) replicator, something we probably cannot control or hope to understand, that could either bring great benefit and niche-multiplying outreach into resource for humans (as did gene/meme phases) or move at too fast a rate or intensity (i.e exponentially) beyond our awareness or resolution ability to monitor and mitigate any growing dangers (i.e chaos, extinction)?
by Ian Clarke
Not really a prediction as such (as it will undoubtedly happen), but I am looking forward to when our bulky & unsightly computers, TV’s, and assorted gadgetry can completely disappear physically, and be replaced by augmented reality virtual keyboards & screens via Project Glass or similar. This will be our next step towards a more seamless integration with our technology.
I can’t wait. Bring it on! :)
by Snaz
I’ll see Paul in Vancouver’s list and raise him:
drastic reductions in birth rates.
· selective conceptions (i.e. Gataca)
· artificial organic organs
· full range of prosthetic organs
· life extension therapies with drastic efficacy
· gene engineering/modification of adult humans
· fringe groups will have formed with the aim of changing their members to some other form, such as semi-aquatic, arboreal, or even into Tolkien elves.
· maximum human lifespan limits become unknowable
· direct mind-machine interfaces (true cyborgs, mentally and bodily)
· synthetic intelligence (human level or better)
· artificial organic life forms
· uplifted animals (animals raised to human intelligence)
· robotic asteroid mining
· factory grown bulk protein and other foods
· nearly complete automation in all resource acquisition (farming, mining, construction, refining)
· nearly complete automation in manufacturing, equipment operation, and most service industries
· gross domestic production at least one or two levels of magnitude greater than in year 2000
· 70 to 80 percent of the population without sufficient employment for self-support (dole required to avoid dystopia)
· cheap or free education at all levels, attendance encouraged by government payments to students
· government provided entertainment, and possibly recreational drugs, in an attempt to keep the masses quiescent
· gifted individuals offered no-pay internships (or little more than the dole) for many years but which may lead to employment
· highly stratified society: resource owners, production and information owners, highly educated and skilled professionals, relatively unskilled labor (rare), unpaid interns, self-employed, servants, gifted hobbyists, and the have-nots
· upward mobility mostly limited to especially gifted, talented, or charismatic individuals (i.e. geniuses, artists of special note, top athletes, famous entertainers, lottery winners, and those who find special favor with those of higher classes)
· high level politicians will be almost exclusively of the owner classes
· people who spend all waking moments in virtual realities (some working, most not)
· Enormous controversy and unrest eclipsing all previous controversies (pro-life/pro-choice, pro-slavery/abolitionist, etc.) on the question of “What defines a human or human equivalent being that should be accorded all rights under the law?”
· constantly mounting resistance (legal, regulatory, economic, social, etc.) by those favoring the status quo to the use of mushrooming DIY technologies (3D printing, nano-resource gathering, etc.) that threaten the primacy of the owner classes
· substantial growth in populations that choose to live “off-the-grid” to at least some degree, such as the Amish
· changes in demographics, production methods, military models, and economies have derailed China’s thrust for superpower status
· due to the intentional choices of their leadership (in promulgating policies for their own aggrandizement that are contrary to the expert advice they have copious access to), some countries, particularly in the third world, will continue to exist in perpetual states of grinding poverty, disease, and starvation for large segments of their people (and some people in other countries will continue to blame this on the greed of those in countries that are better off)
· concern over low levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere due to excessive removal for synthetic fuels and other substances by artificial photosynthesis
· squatters in Antarctica
by Ben
Hopefully some of this.. however, http://www.thevenusproject.com is something I think we NEED…
by CACapitol
@ Snaz-I like how you’ve listed many of the social/political changes resulting from technological progress rather than the usual technological advances themselves. It was both refreshing and disturbing to read.
by Bernard
The American Gini coefficient (measure of income inequality)has been rising steadily since Reagan. It is now the highest in the G8. In twenty five years it will be approaching Mexico’s and America will be well on its way to becoming a dysfunctional police state run by and for the one percent. In this context that computer in Utah that will read everone’s email and listen to and analyze everyone’s phone calls makes sense. Also Homeland Security’s purchase of a half billion rounds of .40 calibre ammo.
by toasterdad
For my full timeline/collection of futurist/expert predictions up to 2045, visit here: http://www.dipity.com/inaway/Accelerating-Map/
A few highlights:
Computers of all sorts and combinations (quantum, neuromorphic, cloud, biological, implanted) all integrated seamlessly on the user end
Robotics and AI have caused the price floor to drop out from the market for human labor globally and in every field. While people still work, it won’t be for money.
Solar power supplies enough energy for 100% of our needs, though it is still supplemented with other forms. All our excess is shot off to the creation of megastructures like Dyson Shells
A series of medical breakthroughs will allow an indefinitely extended youthful lifespan
and of course much more, most of which we couldn’t possibly guess at today.
by michel banks
ISAAC ASIMOV, forgot what a political buffoon he was. He predicted population growth by over 1 billion too many, blamed Pres. Reagan for widespread war and famine since the end of the Soviet empire, but sadly didn’t live long enough to see how wrong he was – dead these 20 years.
Ray’s predictions, on the other hand, are based upon scientific analysis and an understanding of human nature relatively free of reliance upon political gobble-t-gook…makes one all the more grateful for his intellectual generosity and prescience.
by Kenik
i predict a colony on mars.
Screw the moon it’s just a useless piece of rock, we need to go directly to mars.
by Mark Plus
I predict that by 2037 at least one currently democratic country, and possibly more, will return to some form of monarchy because the democracy trend around the world looks like an unsustainable bubble.
Ironically science fiction writers, with their fondness for neo-feudal social structures, noble houses and aristocratic forms of governance set in future societies, might have gotten something right for once.
by Hudi124
Democracy is an unsustainable bubble? what? Politics and economics are separate, and to claim that democracies are inherently unstable is outrageous. Statistically speaking, democracy is the most stable form of government in history, with fewer uprisings, civil war, or ethnic riots than any other governing style. Additionally, having more democracy around the world (which we do, we’ve had more democracies created in the last 50 years than in the last 300) does not lead to any kind of ‘bubble’, in fact the more democracies you have, the less likely war will break out between states, this is because of the positive-sum game that is created by international trading, making countries vested in each-others continued prosperity.
by Mark Plus
I know the democracy propaganda as well as anyone. I just have to question democracy’s sustainability when democratic governments set up welfare states which don’t work demographically because they cause their voters’ fertility to implode, but not their voters’ life expectancies and their demands for benefits.
by DGC
Hello Hudi124,
I wanted to reply to your statements because I wholeheartedly disagree.
Democracy may seem more sustainable than past systems of government, but in all honestly it is still in its infancy. We have experienced two of the greatest wars in the history of human kind while living in a democratic world. My problem perhaps has more to do with Capitalism and the central requirement of greed that goes along with it than Democracy, but the two concepts are intertwined with one another.
Our resources are finite. The more we advance, the quicker we burn through them. We are locked in a race between advancing to the point where we can repair the damage that we’ve done and reaching the time when our resources become so scarce that the worst war of them all will come.
by TonEmo
My prediction for the future? That the gap that separates our ever-advancing technological prowess from our moral development and wisdom will have become even wider.
by Mike
Well, 21 Dec 2012, it’s TEOTWAWKI, right? lol
by Bri
Well maybe the REM song will be playing, the Mayan calendar doesn’t end, a new cycle starts. It’s about as good a date as any for the knee of the exponential knowledge curve. Strap your selves in, we’re gonna hit light speed!
by Erik
Most predictions underestimates the progress in information technology while overestimating what will happen in the physical world.
Back to the future II, taking place 2015, had flying cars and hoverboards, but they were still using fax machines and there were no sign of Internet.
In Minority Report, that takes place in 2053, Tom Cruise had gloves for controlling what was ten years ago a very cool user interface.Today, an XBox with Kinnect can probably do better job not using gloves at all.
In Demolition Man, taking place 2032, people go to a booth where they “chat” with the main computer using a keyboard instead of using a mobile phone or a more advanced technology.
by MrFriendly
Really good point.
by Dennis R.
One billion plus die in social upheaval. Loss of good paying jobs accelerates in the near future. Debtor status of majority of population leaves them with feeling of desperation. Distribution of the fruits of technological advance is uneven at the beginning and envy and resentment lead to violence as most lash out locally. More resources diverted to protecting the privileged class and their property creating more resentment and violence against forces of oppression. People (particularly aging people) and institutions currently in power foresee their advantages waning in an age that promises abundance and use their resources to rally adherents against “socialism” and “others.” Media echoes these messages and confusion becomes widespread. Robots are destroyed, medicine becomes suspect, education/science is ridiculed, communication webs are shut down or censored, and safety is paid for in loss of freedom.
I hope I’m wrong.
by gaoptimize
A Canticle for Leibowitz? Nope, young people are too adicted to their devices and their trivial social networks. I agree on the omnipresent monitoring and loss of freedom part.
by Readitina Book
Think you are a bit modest. I’ll go with two-thirds of the population dead by NBC warfare (that’s about 4-5 billion), religious persecution of Christians politically popular, Islam Sharia law common, extreme loss of technological advance, most large cities in ruins, and beginnings of a return to agrarian society needed for survival. Most common means of transportation is horseback.
by b
Sharia law common? Please…. what makes you think that is going to happen…
by Marcos Marin
No more time capsules?
by tedhowardnz
We will be living in a post economic world of abundance, where all of the essential needs of individuals are taken care of by self sustaining machines.
There will still be economic activity, and there will be new levels of cooperation between individuals, and many people will simply be “doing their own thing”.
The awareness that such a thing is possible is growing, exponentially, as is the desire to bring it into being.
Cooperating groups will be building orbiting habitats by remote “telepresence” workers.
Plans will be well advanced to use most of the mass of both Mars and Venus to make new habitats for earth life.
by Bri
Such idle speculation. At least Ray is grounded in a real understanding of science. Few of his predictions do I diagree with. These prediction are baseless speculation. One thing I predict. AI will happen in far less than twenty five years, probably less than ten
by Paul in Vancouver
Some of my predictions for 2037:
1. low-cost nano-molecular manufacturing
2. human exploration of Mars
3. permanent lunar colony
4. quantum computers
5. organ regeneration
6. hypersonic passenger jets
7. widespread use of autonomous self-driving vehicles in developed countries
8. average lifespan of 90+
9. cure for cancer
10. drones (soldiers, tanks, ships, aircraft) will represent 90% of the U.S. military
by Gorden Russell
You have a lot of good predictions here, Paul in Vancouver.
by Mark Plus
What about the relinquishment trend in technologies? We’ve already pretty much thrown away nuclear power, supersonic passenger jets, progress in pharmaceuticals, etc. Why wouldn’t this trend affect other forms of engineering?
by Editor
Right
by de Broglie
Pax Japanica! That is rich. Little did they know that the Japanese economy would be in the doldrums.
by L2k4FC
2037 predictions: humans no longer living on Earth.
by Editor
… so there won’t be anyone here to check the validity of the prediction … good plan :)
by Luis
We could check from our colonies!
by MrFriendly
The reality of technological progress is almost always more humble than our predictions. It’s easy to think that progress is rapid, given how many studies and laboratory breakthroughs are published (almost daily), but so many of them hit roadblocks, and very few ever mature into useful technologies or medicines.
by BJ
The reality of technological progress is almost always more humble than predictions? Wrong.
“640K ought to be enough for anybody.” — Bill Gates, 1981.
“I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.” — Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943.
“There will never be a bigger plane built.” — A Boeing engineer, after the first flight of 247, a twin engine plane that holds ten people.
“Radio has no future. Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible. X-rays will prove to be a hoax.” — William Thomson, British scientist, 1899.
“The abdomen, the chest, and the brain will forever be shut from the intrusion of the wise and humane surgeon.” — Sir John Eric Ericksen, Surgeon to Queen Victoria, 1873.
Be optimistic and contribute whatever you can, people. I want my science fiction future.
by MrFriendly
Those are nice quotes, but compare the number of articles citing breakthroughs to the number of actual materialized products, and you’ll see that true progress is much slower.
I can find all kinds of quotes about flying cars, robot butlers, etc.
by Jon
A breakthrough means that something we could not do before is now possible. Not every breakthrough translates into a product.
Furthermore, the technology and services that are available today to the average consumer are truly staggeringly powerful. Many people just don’t realize because they are used to seeing them every day.
by MrFriendly
I’m generalizing the term, “product.” I don’t necessarily mean something you can buy off a shelf; i only mean something that is useful in the real world. Take a look at quantum computing. There’s a breakthrough nearly every week, but it’s going to be many decades before it ever becomes a real, useful, working computational device.
I’m not saying that technology isn’t moving at a blistering pace. Im only saying that there’s a bit of an illusion of much faster progress that is created by the myriad papers that become science news articles. The main reason why I come to this website is because the articles are properly written, without hype.
Also, I think Ray does a good job of giving us ideas of where technology will go in the next couple decades.
by Gorden Russell
I really wish that Ray would get in on this discussion, Amara. We really need to know if he has done the match to chart when we will have the self-assembling photovoltaic carbon nanocells that will take carbon out of the air and spin and weave it into all the carbon compounds we need to build a world of abundance for all. Is 25 years too soon? Just ask him that.
by Editor
Not an area we have researched, but worth doing.
by Carl Borrowman
Missed it by 3 years Ray… you would have left them in the dust, but then again, you already do.
http://www.amazon.com/The-Age-Intelligent-Machines-Kurzweil/dp/0262111217/ref=la_B001ILHHDS_1_5?ie=UTF8&qid=1343844441&sr=1-5
by Bill
This site is run by the “Church of Spiritual Techology”, according to Wikipedia.
by Ed
“Writers of the Future” is tied to L Ron Hubbard with the obvious connection to Scientology.It continues the tradition of pulp science fiction where Ron once made his living.
by Editor
Yes, but at least there was no prediction that Xenu would return from the Galactic Confederacy and kill billions of people at volcanos with hydrogen bombs….
by MrFriendly
lol
by advancedatheist
Speaking of L. Ron Hubbard, no cult member wants to admit that an ordinary schlub founded his cult. Instead he usually argues that an Extraordinary Man gave the world the Revealed Truth. (Just refer to the behavior of Eliezer’s fanboys.)
Hence Scientologists try to make Hubbard sound like a real-life Doc Savage or something, though I suspect these days they de-emphasize Hubbard’s claim of expertise in nuclear physics. Nuclear physics sounded cutting-edge and futuristic in the 1940′s and 1950′s when Hubbard started his phony religion and psychobabble scam, but that branch of physics has a bad reputation now, not to mention that it also sounds a bit paleo-futuristic. Presenting Hubbard as a nuclear physicist in 2012 probably doesn’t help in establishing his credibility.
by Involved
As you rightly point out, our current stage of technology, particularly computational capabilities, communications and the Internet could have been predicted. They’re fairly simple and straightforward extrapolations and essentially inevitable.
Going forward the future will start to get blurrier. The possibilities are more of the same in a smaller more convenient package or something entirely new. There may be discontinuities, unforeseen disruptions that supercomputing in a pocket can bring. We repeatedly fail to imagine what large scale computation with ubiquitous connectivity can do until we have it deployed on a massive scale. We dare not even dream until it’s possible.
There are people who already know but can’t tell. Those who are working on technologies that will hit the stores in 1-3 decades are bound by stiff non-disclosure agreements.
Big parts of the future are already here, but they tightly held within corporate walls – and will stay there. Look at Apple and Microsoft. Years of silence preceding an afternoon announcement of something you didn’t exactly see coming.
Don’t trust their corporate future visions. If they really showed you the future, they would be giving the competition advantage. They’re not stupid. They’re simply advertisements designed to to impress this year’s customer and share owner with even shinier versions of what you already have. The real future will remain under wraps.
by Marcos Marin
share “holder”.
by Kripaghan
My prediction- http://sensation-in-olympics2012.blogspot.in/
by Marcos Marin
even the place you got “your prediction” from is being smart enough to “retract previous message about 4th august”… lol
by Prajo
I just came across this. This guy has got some fascinating prediction- yahoo answers most stunning event at olympics?