Accelerated returns in food production
August 19, 2012 by Sam Ghandchi
Average daily calorie consumption in countries (credit: Interchange88/Wikimedia Commons)
Ray Kurzweil’s “law of accelerating returns” is a very viable economic theory that can be used to address many of the issues that economists are facing in our times, but unfortunately most university departments of economics pay very little attention to it, whereas the old economic theories are not able to answer issues that global economy has been facing since the inception of computer revolution of the last thirty years (1).
In fact, when the global economy is struggling with issues such as chronic unemployment and the traditional economists are consulted about it, their answers are repeating the same solutions that have failed over and over again, whereas Kurzweil’s theory opens a new way of thinking to fix the economy (2).
It may be a good idea to address specific issues from the angle of the law of accelerated returns and ask economists to respond and start a dialogue on this new futurist approach of Kurzweil to seek solutions for the problems facing humanity in our times. Challenges of food production in the global economy, at the time when some countries in Africa are facing famine year after year, show the need for a new understanding to help us to come up with working solutions.
In the industrial society of the last 300 years, agriculture was the last to be industrialized and much less than the crafts in the cities. Agriculture not only produces food but it also grows crops such as cotton that are used to make clothing. In other words two of the three basic needs of humans have been historically produced by agriculture over the millennia, and this fact did not change much in the industrial society.
Only in the later part of industrialization have we seen synthetic materials used for garment production. And food production mainly remained in the sphere of agriculture until recently.
Limits to growth?
Since space colonization in the last half century has proven to be a lot more distant to achieve than previously thought, the land on Earth is pretty much the limit of what is available to humanity for the foreseeable future and therefore traditional agriculture becomes increasingly problematic.
Maybe improvements in desalination of water and expanding arable land into the deserts can help, but the limitations of useable land are a reality that humanity will be facing more and more despite the efforts at controlling the population. All of this means that we need to rethink the way we produce food.
Basically, food production is made of crop cultivation and animal husbandry. The former is being improved in two ways today. One is by trying to expand arable land or considering multistory buildings for growing crops, also known as vertical farming. The other is by using genetically modified organisms (GMOs).
Currently, companies like Monsanto are creating genetically modified crops such as drought-resistant corn that are used right now in the drought-hit areas of corn production in the U.S. Not only do GMOs address hazards like drought but they improve the yield of various crops by orders of magnitude.
Animal husbandry is the other component of food production. Not only do cattle contribute to air pollution, but the land they use is becoming less economically feasible to keep and companies in more advanced countries are moving such production to less developed countries.
Intelligent food
An alternative is using tissue engineering to create in vitro meat.
Currently, a tissue-engineered hamburger costs about $300,000 and it may seem formidable and humorous to propose it as an alternative. But this is exactly why we should look at Kurzweil’s law of accelerated returns. Forty years ago it seemed like a dream to think that every individual would have a computer on their desk.
But in 10 years, PC’s were made and nowadays not only in the advanced countries but all over the world one can see computers on every individual’s desk and $99 PC’s are no longer wishful thinking.
Production of meat by tissue engineering can not only bring abundance of meat production in the world, but it can free up land to be used for building homes.
Looking at developments like this may seem incredible when viewed with the glasses of old economic theories but just like the way personal computers and cell phones took over the world in such a short time, the law of accelerated returns can be our guide to see these potential developments for food production in the world.
Footnotes
1. Social Justice and the Computer Revolution
2. How to Fix the Economy?
Source: IRANSCOPE
Comments (16)
by Jim Mooney
And if you want to look at it from a moral viewpoint, tissue engineering obviates the cruelties of factory farming.
by Dr-Tomorrow
The developing science of Aquaponics is a good example. Also to a lesser extent, the expanding body of knowledge known as Permaculture.
With the growth of the digital web, it is now possible to research and synthesize all the best practices, inherited techniques, folk wisdom and previous growing experience in given climates, to achieve astonishing results.
Plant guild databases are another great example, and answer such questions as which plants to co-grow so as to cross-pollinate, ward off insects and diseases, clean and scent the air, and cross-fertilize?
Once again, the trend holds true. Due to “interconnectedness” of humanity, knowledge, skillsets and sophistication of processes continues to grow at an accelerated rate.
by melajara
The short answer is, even with gain of productivity in food production, we should not overbreed .
A classic to feed the debate:
http://www.garretthardinsociety.org/articles/art_tragedy_of_the_commons.html
by melajara
The short answer is, even with (massive) gain of productivity in food production, we should not overbreed .
A classic to illuminate the debate:
http://www.garretthardinsociety.org/articles/art_tragedy_of_the_commons.html
by Rob Larson
Law of Accelerating Returns is just the old Adam Smith concept of supply and demand written anew. There’s nothing unusual about our predicament. Even if population were to explode to the point where arable land would become a premium, the costs of vertical farming and in vitro animal husbandry would become more and more economical. The scarcity of arable land would drive the costs of conventional food production up, thus revealing a demand for what would become less expensive vertical farming and in vitro food production.
One thing many people don’t realize is that population, at least in the developed world, is declining. That’s why the Japanese are considering building robots to care for the elderly, a task once performed by younger family members. The only nations whose populations are skyrocketing are those which still rely on subsistence farming as it requires a large number of human workers to perform. Adoption of industrial farming techniques by so-called Third World nations would not only end the need for more and more children, those nations would then be able to redirect the labor of the people to other pursuits, which would raise the standard of living and, incidentally, the cost of having children which would have the effect of lowering global population.
China is exhibit number 2. Due to certain political peculiarities, China is a nation that is about to undergo an extreme deflation in population. Which is only made worse by a cultural predisposition to having male babies, will exacerbate the situation further. It’s doubtful we’ll get to 8 billion people much less the 9 billion, 15 billion or 30 billion predicted by some futurists.
by Bri
I’d agree with all you’ve said except for one factor. Life extention. In so short a period of time we will be able to extend our lives indefinitely. Not only that, but we will be youthful. If AI teamed with robots gets rid of jobs, one of the main ways we feel human is with family. That could be like gasoline on a fire
by anthony
This is a nice thought, except that when you face the reality of the situation, the viability of industrial farming in the long term is impossible. Industrial farming slowly, but surely uses up all arable land, the ecosystem is limited to what it can produce. It is not valid to think that food can be produced out of thin air, it is a cycle by which a plant uses components (none of which can feed an animal on their own) to create an edible fruit, this fruit is a carrier of excess sugars and starch which a plant evolved to produce in hopes that an animal would process it to create carbon rich matter which would then be returned to the soil. We can extend this cycle out for millions of years as it is the system by which the world has continued existing since the first animals came to dwell on the land and it is a viable system for continuation of life on earth.
Permaculture takes advantage of these cycles to create an artificial eco-system which is designed to serve humans, and any other animal which is essential to its functions. It is a horticultural based approach to food production and is the only system which is viable in the long term. We must not only seek to extend life for ourselves, but also life for the planet and we can do this through creating ethically based systems which return nutrients to the soil. This is regenerative as opposed to the current methods of food production which are degenerative, sustainable is in between and we can at least make it that far through using organic farming methods.
by Mitchell Powell
Have we seen any indication that the Law of Accelerating Returns applies to food production, or are we still waiting for it to begin?
by Bri
When we were hunter gatherers, grain heads ripened sort of explosively. Hard to gather. We’ve altered the plants over the years to give better yields, by staying as seed heads longer. Then we used animals to increase our yields. Later machines. All these trends now are on steroids, from industrial farming to adding nutritional components genetically. Yea it accelerates, maybe at a slower rate.
by Grey
I’m an economist from South Africa. I’ve been observing Kurzweil’s view on the increasing rate at which technology improves. I can honestly subscribe to this way of thinking. Although I’d be a bit concerned with painting a company like Monsanto as some sort of hero, there seems to be a number of people concerned that its created the super root worm in the U.S.
by Bri
And super weeds, not to mention an addiction to toxic pesticieds
by GatorALLin
I would think the access to education on how to farm efficiently and use the farming tools needed would also be a major part of this future farming. I was hoping Ray might touch on the changes of sharing education/info and also the translation of English to other languages where that could also be an issue. I would think Ray’s same laws apply here…
by why06
Monsanto can die in a hole for all I care. What ever benefit GMO crops might have, their patent wars a legal battles along with the destruction of genetic diversity is more of a threat to the world then a solution.
I look forward to hydroponics & vertical farms though, but something really needs to be addressed in the genetically modified crop business, lest we all be destroyed by one companies quest for profit.
by ChuckNorris34
I couldn’t agree with you more. Better be careful what we say about Monsanto……they will have us in court next. GMO’s? Do these people realize what GMO’s really are?
I too am looking forward to the evolution of hydroponics and vertical farming, not cattle living knee-deep in their own feces.
by anthony
Genetically modified organisms are the Frankenstein of the natural world, they may be gentle or they may be monsters. Because we cannot determine whether or not they are hazardous in a given ecosystem, it may be easier to stick with what’s naturally available instead of investing in risky stock options.
Aeroponics is even more viable than hydroponics as it uses a third less water for the same product!
by anthony
Aeroponics are even more viable as they use a third less water than hydroponics!
And I agree, why would you try to design crops to suit a degraded ecosystem as opposed to taking the easy route and restoring the ecosystem to ideal growing conditions? Or instead plant a different crop which is more viable in the given system?