After 30 years, IBM says PC going way of vacuum tube and typewriter
August 11, 2011 | Source: Network World
IBM CTO Mark Dean, one of a dozen IBM engineers who designed the first PC unveiled Aug. 12, 1981, says PCs are “going the way of the vacuum tube, typewriter, vinyl records, CRT and incandescent light bulbs.”
Dean’s remarks continue a debate over whether we are now in a so-called “post-PC” era, in which smartphones and tablets are replacing desktops and laptops.
“PCs are being replaced at the center of computing not by another type of device — though there’s plenty of excitement about smartphones and tablets — but by new ideas about the role that computing can play in progress,” Dean says. “These days, it’s becoming clear that innovation flourishes best not on devices but in the social spaces between them, where people and ideas meet and interact. It is there that computing can have the most powerful impact on economy, society, and people’s lives.”
Comments (11)
by Scott Woodard
Thats a pantload. IBM gets out of the PC business so they diss PCs…naturally.
by laughin
been hearing this a long time… i mean if you’re a teenager cell phones are fine. but as an adult you need real interfaces, and ergonomic at that. All i see is more of the same with the cell phones. Yay its powerful enuf to run the space shuttle.. k great, battery still dies within a day just like the model from 10 years ago, the screen still requires my aging eyes to squint and i get carpal tunnel trying to type on it. Been there, done that, they been saying this ‘replace PCs thing’ for a decade now, still 0 progress in the only 3 things i care about – battery, interface, call clarity. Wow.. angry birds.. neat.. who cares?
by Cybernettr
The problem is not so much the prediction that PCs will be replaced, but with the insinuation that the replacement is imminent. This will not happen until the screen size problem is solved.
The problem is that the more easily portable a device is, the smaller the screen it tends to have. Smartphones are more portable than tablets, but have less screen real estate.
This problem will not be solved until something like practical glasses that project a larger screen image for the user are developed. That will no doubt someday happen, but to claim that PCs will disappear before then is sheer hype.
by bl
i agree with the article, and disagree with all the comments here. The current smartphones run at speeds pc’s ran at 10 years ago, with Moores law, in a few years smart phones will run at 2+ gigahertz, with plenty of ram.
I think “docking stations” will be the foreseeable future, where you simply dock your cell phone into a monitor/keyboard peripheral. This way you have the benefit of a mobile device, but can do workstation tasks when needed using a keyboard and larger screen.
by Atmic
This is EXACTLY what I meant to describe. I agree.
by karnoefel
I agree with the above comments. If you compare top tablets, smart-phones and even laptops with a frontrunning desktop-pc they are al left in the dust behind it. Only good for listening music, checking email etc..and phonecals. Serious work you can only do on a decent pc. It stays still on for a while I suppose..
by Atmic
I agree with everyone so far, but I think we’re missing the subtext of the statement. I read it a different way: that eventually interfacing with mobile devices will be as practical as interfacing with your tower at home. That eventually the gap between mobile computing power and traditional desktops will shrink, so the concept of a desktop computer will be obsolete. You won’t have to come home to use your rig, it’ll be with you everywhere.
by Comrade
I disagree; smart devices have merely found their niche in the market, one the PC isn’t designed to fill. It just so happens that this niche involves going places that would make taking a PC along impractical (unless it’s a laptop), has largely gone untapped until recently, and is geared towards users that can’t be arsed to learn even the very easy to use Windows 7 (which includes laptops).
by Imperator03
I’m not so sure about that. PC’s will no longer be the business drivers of the market like they were in the past. Smartphones and tablets seem to be the future of computing. But that doesn’t mean the PC is dead. Unlike the “dumb” terminal phase the preceded the PC, new computing technology differs little from personal computing. If you want power computing your best bet is to get a PC, not a smartphone or tablet.
An interesting growth area for the PC is in the ubiquitous computing market. In essence, you set up PC’s to do powerhouse computing like running a media center or a home filled with dozens of cameras, automatic systems like lights, etc.
Jaynay has a point. Plus when you consider things like the entertainment industry and 3d movies, you’ll still need massive workstation computing power. Not only that, you’ll always have hobbyists that want the biggest, fastest monster PC out there.
What the revolution is really about is mobile computing. Long term forecasting can see a day in which we have implantable devices, or even nanoscale distributed computing. Will this eliminate the need for devices like the PC? Probably not, although with the nanoscale stuff we still don’t know what or how much can be done within an individual.
by Tuco
#Jaynay.com: I absolutely agree with you.
by Jaynay.com
The PC is dead for non-technical consumers only.
Consumers will migrate toward “connected devices” because they serve specific purposes without the requirement of having any technical knowledge. That’s great for consumers. For technical people, creative people, peopel like me.. we will always have workstations with serious horsepower and serious screen realestate.. because we need it.
And there are A LOT OF US out there.. so PC’s aren’t going anywhere.