Comments on: Arthur C. Clarke predicting the future in 1964 http://www.kurzweilai.net/arthur-c-clarke-predicting-the-future-in-1964 Accelerating Intelligence Sat, 25 May 2013 06:03:59 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.4.1 By: Miroslav Pivoda http://www.kurzweilai.net/arthur-c-clarke-predicting-the-future-in-1964/comment-page-1#comment-84665 Miroslav Pivoda Mon, 07 Jan 2013 11:51:00 +0000 http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175812#comment-84665 Arthur C. Clarke, a specialist in telecommunications, estimated correctly their technological potential in 1960s. This potential has come to its successful implementation because within the past fifty years, there has been no force around to slow the implementation down or even to stop it. Why? Most applications in telecommunications were military applications. If you look into the history, under certain conditions, social revolutions can be postponed, however nothing stops military applications. Arthur C. Clarke, a specialist in telecommunications, estimated correctly their technological potential in 1960s. This potential has come to its successful implementation because within the past fifty years, there has been no force around to slow the implementation down or even to stop it. Why? Most applications in telecommunications were military applications. If you look into the history, under certain conditions, social revolutions can be postponed, however nothing stops military applications.

]]> By: Wd http://www.kurzweilai.net/arthur-c-clarke-predicting-the-future-in-1964/comment-page-1#comment-84618 Wd Mon, 07 Jan 2013 08:19:46 +0000 http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175812#comment-84618 I think you miss the point. What's more exciting to people: whether they live in a city or in a rural area or whether they can communicate with people anywhere in the world in an instant? Futurists will always get many of the manifestations of techology wrong. But this video demonstrates quite convincingly that they can get the essence of technological progress correct. We often forget how remarkable technology is today and how it would appear to the world of 50years ago. Captain Kirk would be envious of the smartphone and he was supposedly from the 23rd century! I think you miss the point. What’s more exciting to people: whether they live in a city or in a rural area or whether they can communicate with people anywhere in the world in an instant? Futurists will always get many of the manifestations of techology wrong. But this video demonstrates quite convincingly that they can get the essence of technological progress correct. We often forget how remarkable technology is today and how it would appear to the world of 50years ago. Captain Kirk would be envious of the smartphone and he was supposedly from the 23rd century!

]]> By: Mr.X http://www.kurzweilai.net/arthur-c-clarke-predicting-the-future-in-1964/comment-page-1#comment-84455 Mr.X Sun, 06 Jan 2013 18:51:54 +0000 http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175812#comment-84455 "Funny he would mention Tahiti, as I am an American architect living in French Polynesia." Hm.. maybe it is true and I have no humor... Anyway; like almost all futurists up to this date, he vastly overestimated the change that would occur. “Funny he would mention Tahiti, as I am an American architect living in French Polynesia.”

Hm.. maybe it is true and I have no humor…

Anyway; like almost all futurists up to this date, he vastly overestimated the change that would occur.

]]> By: Mr.X http://www.kurzweilai.net/arthur-c-clarke-predicting-the-future-in-1964/comment-page-1#comment-84453 Mr.X Sun, 06 Jan 2013 18:45:34 +0000 http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175812#comment-84453 Why are you guys reifying nature!? Why are you guys anthropomorphing planet Earth!?Is this some kind of mental terraforming? Why do people need to hear something that's pure garbage only once, and never change their opinion afterwards, while the same sa(i)d people fail to learn/memorize other things? The answers to these questions may unravel "secrets" that will bring the advent of the singularity much closer... But only maybe... Why are you guys reifying nature!?

Why are you guys anthropomorphing planet Earth!?Is this some kind of mental terraforming?

Why do people need to hear something that’s pure garbage only once, and never change their opinion afterwards, while the same sa(i)d people fail to learn/memorize other things?

The answers to these questions may unravel “secrets” that will bring the advent of the singularity much closer…

But only maybe…

]]> By: Bri http://www.kurzweilai.net/arthur-c-clarke-predicting-the-future-in-1964/comment-page-1#comment-84450 Bri Sun, 06 Jan 2013 18:40:59 +0000 http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175812#comment-84450 I'm kind of surprised reading the comments. I think his predictions were way off. About the only thing he got right was the " it will be possible to telecommute. Possible but not common. I love the buildings with staggered floors. Like who can afford to use real- estate like that. The thing that pulls us into towns and cities, is that we are social animals. Farming has always been done around centers of social activity. You need markets to sell your goods. If anything, cheap land and transportation made rural settins be more far flung. I would expect cities to get larger to quite some time. Even when we have full sensory communication we will still want to be around flesh and blood people. We need the sense that others are truly near, not just accessible. I’m kind of surprised reading the comments. I think his predictions were way off. About the only thing he got right was the ” it will be possible to telecommute. Possible but not common. I love the buildings with staggered floors. Like who can afford to use real- estate like that. The thing that pulls us into towns and cities, is that we are social animals. Farming has always been done around centers of social activity. You need markets to sell your goods. If anything, cheap land and transportation made rural settins be more far flung. I would expect cities to get larger to quite some time. Even when we have full sensory communication we will still want to be around flesh and blood people. We need the sense that others are truly near, not just accessible.

]]> By: Bri http://www.kurzweilai.net/arthur-c-clarke-predicting-the-future-in-1964/comment-page-1#comment-84446 Bri Sun, 06 Jan 2013 18:24:18 +0000 http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175812#comment-84446 Hey an earthquake here, an earthquake there. Maybe shift the poles around a bit. Some mega tsunamis. I'm shure she could get the job done Hey an earthquake here, an earthquake there. Maybe shift the poles around a bit. Some mega tsunamis. I’m shure she could get the job done

]]> By: Peter the printer http://www.kurzweilai.net/arthur-c-clarke-predicting-the-future-in-1964/comment-page-1#comment-84185 Peter the printer Sat, 05 Jan 2013 10:04:48 +0000 http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175812#comment-84185 Eradicate us like a plague? Eradicate us like a plague?

]]> By: MinorityMandate http://www.kurzweilai.net/arthur-c-clarke-predicting-the-future-in-1964/comment-page-1#comment-84042 MinorityMandate Fri, 04 Jan 2013 19:44:42 +0000 http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175812#comment-84042 Migration to cities has as much push - not much left in the rural areas aside from corporate farms - as a pull - a lot more opportunities opening up in high density areas everyday. Until we can push this situation onto communication channels, which may well be sooner than later, Clarke's prognosis is only a little premature in developed countries. Undeveloped countries will have to catch up. Migration to cities has as much push – not much left in the rural areas aside from corporate farms – as a pull – a lot more opportunities opening up in high density areas everyday. Until we can push this situation onto communication channels, which may well be sooner than later, Clarke’s prognosis is only a little premature in developed countries. Undeveloped countries will have to catch up.

]]> By: Cybernettr http://www.kurzweilai.net/arthur-c-clarke-predicting-the-future-in-1964/comment-page-1#comment-83976 Cybernettr Fri, 04 Jan 2013 16:06:55 +0000 http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175812#comment-83976 Surgeons operating on patients halfway across the world? Of course we have that now with the DaVinci Robotic Operating System. The problem with telecommuting, however, is that it is still difficult for a boss to keep an eye on workers that way! Even in this age of voice dictation, most salaried writers still head to an office, to name just one example. Surgeons operating on patients halfway across the world? Of course we have that now with the DaVinci Robotic Operating System. The problem with telecommuting, however, is that it is still difficult for a boss to keep an eye on workers that way! Even in this age of voice dictation, most salaried writers still head to an office, to name just one example.

]]> By: Koko J http://www.kurzweilai.net/arthur-c-clarke-predicting-the-future-in-1964/comment-page-1#comment-83893 Koko J Fri, 04 Jan 2013 10:05:39 +0000 http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175812#comment-83893 Well this doesn't take into account the fact that in the developing world, people are flocking to cities in their thousands and the percentage of the world population living in them is still rising a great deal. Well this doesn’t take into account the fact that in the developing world, people are flocking to cities in their thousands and the percentage of the world population living in them is still rising a great deal.

]]> By: Kevin http://www.kurzweilai.net/arthur-c-clarke-predicting-the-future-in-1964/comment-page-1#comment-83365 Kevin Wed, 02 Jan 2013 19:13:13 +0000 http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175812#comment-83365 Truly amazing. Funny he would mention Tahiti, as I am an American architect living in French Polynesia. THE only way I am able to procure this is precisely because of current internet technologies, so I can be connected with my Clients in the US and Canada. Arthur definitely was a visionary, among his many other talents. Truly amazing. Funny he would mention Tahiti, as I am an American architect living in French Polynesia. THE only way I am able to procure this is precisely because of current internet technologies, so I can be connected with my Clients in the US and Canada. Arthur definitely was a visionary, among his many other talents.

]]> By: Steve Waclo http://www.kurzweilai.net/arthur-c-clarke-predicting-the-future-in-1964/comment-page-1#comment-83336 Steve Waclo Wed, 02 Jan 2013 18:10:39 +0000 http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175812#comment-83336 A.C. Clarke "The difference between machines and human beings is that human beings can be reproduced by unskilled labor." This may be part of why he missed the explosion (pun intended) of cities worldwide. Too many poverty stricken folks, and their many offspring (see above) flocking to what they perceive as their only option for a decent life. If humanity cannot so something about expanding populations, Earth will shake us off like fleas (arguably, rather difficult shake off, but I'm sure others can come up with a more accurate analogy :-). A.C. Clarke

“The difference between machines and human beings is that human beings can be reproduced by unskilled labor.”

This may be part of why he missed the explosion (pun intended) of cities worldwide. Too many poverty stricken folks, and their many offspring (see above) flocking to what they perceive as their only option for a decent life.
If humanity cannot so something about expanding populations, Earth will shake us off like fleas (arguably, rather difficult shake off, but I’m sure others can come up with a more accurate analogy :-).

]]> By: wjr http://www.kurzweilai.net/arthur-c-clarke-predicting-the-future-in-1964/comment-page-1#comment-83318 wjr Wed, 02 Jan 2013 17:41:38 +0000 http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175812#comment-83318 Wrong or merely not taking into account human hysteresis? There is no real reason for a city any longer other than the fact that they exist and have been the centers of connectivity. Now, with universal connectivity wending its way into the hinterland, they make no sense. How much shopping did you do via the net as opposed to going to the mall this year? Younger people simply don't go to a store -- they go to Amazon or some other web e-tailer. It is simply a matter of generational change that will render virtually all cities into Detroit i.e. grasslands interspersed with thugs. Wrong or merely not taking into account human hysteresis? There is no real reason for a city any longer other than the fact that they exist and have been the centers of connectivity. Now, with universal connectivity wending its way into the hinterland, they make no sense.

How much shopping did you do via the net as opposed to going to the mall this year? Younger people simply don’t go to a store — they go to Amazon or some other web e-tailer. It is simply a matter of generational change that will render virtually all cities into Detroit i.e. grasslands interspersed with thugs.

]]> By: Thomas Jensen http://www.kurzweilai.net/arthur-c-clarke-predicting-the-future-in-1964/comment-page-1#comment-83232 Thomas Jensen Wed, 02 Jan 2013 14:45:41 +0000 http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175812#comment-83232 Well, he was wrong about the city part, but otherwise, it's pretty much spot on. Well, he was wrong about the city part, but otherwise, it’s pretty much spot on.

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