Big Think | Ray Kurzweil’s top 5 reasons to be optimistic for 2013
January 1, 2013
Source: Big Think — January 1, 2013 | Daniel Honan
Will you be better off this year than your were in the past? To the futurist and inventor Ray Kurzweil, the answer is a resounding yes. “We are far more productive and healthy and better off in every way than we were in the past,” Kurzweil, the author of the new book How to Create a Mind: The Secret of Human Thought Revealed, told Big Think in a recent interview. Below are Kurzweil’s top 5 reasons for optimism in 2013. [...]
Comments (7)
by Dan Robinson
Meanwhile 2012 was the hottest US year on record, with no sign that we’ll reverse that trend, or it’s central cause, continued population increase. How long with local, US and world economies be able to adapt to these changes to support the infrastructures of civilization? Will the Singularity come in time? I doubt it.
by Gabriel
Dan, this isn’t “The Day After Tomorrow”….yes, climate change is a big issue but it’s not gonna wipe out all civilization next week.
That said, while I can totally understand Kurzweil’s optimism from a broad historical viewpoint (healthier, wealthier, etc), because it’s true…I can understand frustrations from a more narrow focused viewpoint, like, as you say, climate change, and the many individual issues plaguing us today. He’s right, but this far-out broader viewpoint, while not incorrect and needing more people to comprehend to fully appreciate how lucky we are to be born in this day and age….can understandably frustrate people because it can also makes it seem like his head in the clouds with regards to contemporary issues, even though he outlines all sorts of tech down the road that has the potential to solve all our issues
by Bri
My big issue of concern is the jobs issue. I agree with Ray in the short term, but I’m unsure as to the long term. Everything he said about the job market is true for now, but how does he envision AI affects on those upper level jobs? I can’t see 8 billion people augmenting themselves so that they can compete. More so the issue is time utilization. Any robotic AI can work without breaks 24/7. They also don’t require salaries. How can humans even begin to compete against that. For 2013 it’s not an issue. I wonder what Ray thinks will happen in this regard, during the 2020,s. Unless he knows something that I haven’t heard from him, all I can see is AI excelling and humans wanting more leisure time. To me it’s an unanswered question, perhaps suitable for an Ask Ray..
by Gabriel
Well, according to the Singularity is Near book, Kurzweil sees Work and Play (alongside real and virtual reality, man and machine etc) as being instinquishable in the future…that, in the future, the purpose of work (and play) will be to “create knowledge”.
Human knowledge in all of it’s forms (arts, science, tech, etc)…the value of virtually anything will be in it’s information, and be created with nanotech for next-to-nothing.
by Cybernettr
Yes, I see Kurzweil is still claiming that “we destroy jobs at the bottom of the skill ladder, but we create a larger number of jobs at the top of the skill ladder.” And yet he fails to recognize that these jobs will eventually be available to only the smallest percentages of people–the intellectual elite, if you will. The average guy who’s a truck driver now will never be able to be retrained to be a nuclear physicist…at least not until brain augmentation occurs, which is not until the long term future .The short-term–maybe 10 years from now–is going to be one of much unemployment and civil unrest.
by Bri
I agree whole heartedly. To what lengths would a human have to go to keep up with the explosive rates of change. I feel that the competitive nature of it would force us to constantly be augmenting. Insider to say this and I hope that it’s not taken in a negative way, but I think Ray is a little obtuse to the average persons position. Many of the pick up jobs that people rely on in hard times, are about to disappear. Particularly for young adults.
by Lint
Cybernettr, I agree with that. We will soon have massive unemployment. Well said.
Re global warming: the Singularity will save us, if it comes on time. But ahead of that, we are due for green tech making strong inroads to replace fossil fuels. For example, solar is expected to finally surpass coal (coal !) on a cost/watt basis in a couple years.