Blocking the sun: study looks at costs of 6 geoengineering schemes
September 5, 2012
As the planet warms and the world continues to emit greenhouse gases at a searing pace, some argue that geoengineering ideas are rapidly becoming attractive, if not downright necessary, IEEE Spectrum reports.
In other words, hack the planet.
One of the two main categories of geoengineering is solar radiation management, or SRM. (The other is the direct removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.) The idea is to mimic what volcanos do naturally, by putting aerosol particles into the stratosphere on a massive scale. For example, when Mount Pinatubo erupted in 1991, the cloud that encircled the planet caused an overall cooling of about half a degree. An argument has been raging for years now about the wisdom of creating our own version of a volcanic eruption: Can it be done? Should it be done? What are the risks? What are the benefits? A few countries and research groups have tried to start demonstration projects; even these proof-of-concept exercises have garnered significant backlash from the scientific community as well as the public at large.
Most scientists would agree, though, that geoengineering ideas are at least worth looking into. And one of the primary questions is whether we can afford to do it. A new study published in the journal Environmental Research Letters has done a thorough cost analysis of the main techniques for SRM — importantly, this is not a cost-benefit analysis, where risks and benefits are included, but simply a look at the costs of putting enough aerosols into the atmosphere. What they found is either encouraging or terrifying, depending on one’s feelings about geoengineering: it is, in the grand scheme of things, very, very cheap.
The authors, Justin McClellan, David Keith, and Jay Apt, found six main schemes for SRM:
1. Existing airplanes
Using aircraft to drop lots of aerosols into the stratosphere is the simplest method. Existing planes would require modification to fly high enough, which does increase the cost; still, putting one million metric tons of aerosols between 20 and 30 km into the air would require a mere $1 to $3 billion per year.
2. New airplanes
Those modifications required for existing aircraft suggest that simply designing new ones for this purpose might be the way to go. The cost analysis indicates a slightly cheaper overall price, probably below $2 billion per year to provide the same output.
3. Guns
This is, obviously, a radically different approach. Starting with a two-decade-old analysis of using a battleship-based 16″ Mark 7 naval gun to distribute aerosols, the study also looked into newer ideas including electromagnetic and hydrogen gas-based gun systems. Perhaps not surprisingly, delivering the required payload by firing guns into the sky does not turn out to be the cheapest way to go ($137 billion per year, using the original Mark 7 gun; $19 billion per year with a modernized version of the gun).
4. Rockets
Or more accurately, rocket-powered gliders. This sounds incredibly cool, but again, the costs go well beyond the stratosphere. Even using “off-the-shelf rocket engines” (I, for one, have never seen such a shelf) the cost to distribute enough aerosols would be a stunning $390 billion per year.
5. Airships
The authors note that airships — i.e., blimps — are attractive because of a large payload capacity and long endurance potential. Getting them up high enough and into strong wind shears will be a problem, though; costs are similar to that for aircraft, in the $2 billion per year range, with much of that going toward high-altitude R&D.
6. Pipes
The most far-fetched idea has arguably come closest to being implemented. Akin to “space elevator” schemes, this involves a 20-kilometer pipe running from the ground and suspended by helium balloons. Crazy, right? Well, one demonstration experiment planned in the United Kingdom was scrapped only after some patent conflict-of-interest issues were raised. In this analysis, the pipe method would cost a modest $4 to $10 billion per year.
The authors conclude, as others have in the past, that hacking the planet is “feasible from an engineering standpoint.” They are quick to point out, though, the technical achievability and relative affordability “[do] not mean that SRM is a preferred strategy.” There is still much work to be done on the risks of such large-scale science experiments, and critics often point out that blocking the sun’s rays as a way to bring down temperatures does nothing to stop the rapid acidification of the oceans.
Still, the cost analysis and the continued international failure to act on climate change make geoengineering ever more intriguing. The authors point out that the estimated costs of unabated climate change range between $200 billion and $2 trillion per year by 2030 (and some estimates, like the Stern Review, lean even higher, toward 5 percent of global GDP per year). Cutting back on emissions is everyone’s first choice for fighting back, but every year of inaction leads us closer to the geoengineering precipice.
Justin McClellan, David W Keith, Jay Apt, Cost analysis of stratospheric albedo modification delivery systems, Environmental Research Letters, 2012, DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/7/3/034019 (open access)

Comments (12)
by MikeB
Q: Why the effort to maintain the climate as it is? Why not more effort in doing what has made us the dominant species, adaptation to change. What madness makes us think we have become gods? Do we really believe we can control nature, something any good scientist will admit we barely understand?
A: Profit. Beware the man selling you a cure-all.
by Tim Hansen
It’ll never work! We’re all gonna die1
by longnow
Do ppl think that political parties that base themselves mainly
in the south are going to let the demographics shift to the
north? Does anyone think that an entire region like tbe
south and SW is going to sit back, deny deny and wish
AGW away? No, they know that airconditioning can’t
save them which means all they have to do is deny and buy time
by Christian Gehman
“Stand By and Fry!” — that’s your plan?
by Marcos Marin
Are they including the cost of the Alzheimer ridden population from all this raining aluminum or they figure that since pensions are doomed anyway we dont have to worry about it (any more than already should)?
by Kris Knight
You are seriously behind here……..aerosol spraying in the skies has been going on worldwide for well over 10 years…….I refer you to two of the newest DVD’s for quick update if you truly aren’t aware of this……..WHAT IN THE WORLD ARE THEY SPRAYING? and a bit more recently WHY IN THE WORLD ARE THEY SPRAYING?
I’m nearly speechless at how outdated this info is re. what is really going on in our skies, to our weather.
by Gorden Russell
Sure, everybody talks about it, but nobody is going to do anything about it. The responsible parties will just watch the tide roll up Wall Street and keep on denying responsibility. One day you’ll be able to tie up your boat to the horns of that big bronze statue of a bull…and even then they’ll be saying that this is all a natural cycle coming around on its own..
But there are some things that will save us:
Solar cells are steadily becoming more efficient and less expensive. As time passes more and more people will have them on their rooftops. This will give them enough cheap electricity to make hydrogen gas out of water.
Do you remember the old song, “They Say it Never Rains in Southern California?” When the 10 million motor vehicles of the L.A. basin are all burning hydrogen instead of gasoline, they will be emitting nothing but water vapor from their tailpipes. That just might be enough moisture to give Los Angeles a drizzle of rain during the coolest hours of the night before dawn.
Sometime after 2030 or 2040 there will be the self-assembling photo-voltaic carbon nanocells that I keep talking about. They will be able to take carbon-dioxide out of the air just as green plants do. This carbon can be turned into graphene, carbon nanotubes, fiber diamond and any other of millions of useful carbon compounds. Do you remember the article that recently appeared at this website about the memristors that use a single atom of iron to store a bit of memory? The micro-meteorites that fall on your roof will supply enough iron for your nanocells to grow enough memory to store the files that contain the plans for growing your house into a mansion.
When nine billion people have these nanocells and take carbon out of the air to grow homes and everything contained in them including food, the problem of global warming will start to be reversed — but Wall Street will have to be submerged first for this to happen.
by Gorden Russell
Oh, and another thing, there was an article posted here at this website a few weeks ago telling about the discovery that graphene can desalinate seawater by filtering salt out of water by reverse osmosis.
Carbon nanocells can grow the desalinization plants at the coast and then grow the pipelines up over the mountains to the deserts where all the poor people of the world can grow their own shining marble palaces…just as long as there is enough calcium in the soil to make the CaCO3.
by Bri
That’s a Lot of water and a lot of pipe. I agree with you and Ray that global cooling might soon be the problem because atmospheric carbon is so readily available. Are they fools to consider SO2???? the water is too acidic already.. All the coral reefs are dying because of that. Why don’t we just put some plutonium in the air and really get the job done. I mean to say that it seems they want to destroy all life on this planet! My idea is to cause an eclipse of sorts. Either really close to the sun(cheaper) or in geostationary orbit. A billion gazillion movable tiny Mylar mirrors or something like that. They would be able to tilt to block light or let it pass. They could relay it to the colder regions thusly reducing the severity of storms. It wouldn’t be cheap but storm damage already costs us billions each year. Every space flight could bring up some to lower orbits and then robotic solar sails could ferry them up higher. This wouldnt happen for a while and we need to understand whether better. In my eyes this is far saber a concept and if we didn’t want to mess around with warming cooler regions , then it could be diverted to energy production. Particularly if we shaded deseart regions they might lower in temp enough to cause precipitation. Look at climate forecasts for the US. A good portion will turn into a dessert. That’s even more money and potential habitable zones lost. That seems like a win win situation and Sir Richard Branson could help us do it with his ideas for space tourism.
by Christian Gehman
More likely, Buckminster Fuller will come back form the dead.
by SpottedMarley
i sure hope there is something left to be saved
by Christian Gehman
After Apophis? not really likely, is it? Or … maybe you believe what they’ve told you already ….