“Ultimately, the promises of Apocalyptic AI are almost identical to those of Jewish and Christian apocalyptic traditions. Should they come true, the world will be, once again, a place of magic.”

The main Apocalyptic AI authors are Marvin Minsky, Ray Kurzweil and, especially, Hans Moravec, to whom much of Chapter 2 is dedicated. Geraci emphasizes the importance of Moravec’s seminal 1978 essay on Today’s Computers, Intelligent Machines and Our Future for the formulation of the Apocalyptic AI memeset.

Robert made me aware that, in this article, Moravec may have been the first to formulate the Apocalyptic AI idea of resurrection of the dead by copying them to the future: “The machine society can, and for its own benefit probably should, take along with it everything we consider important, up to and including the information in our minds and genes. Real live human beings, and a whole human community, could then be reconstituted if an appropriate circumstance ever arose.”

In a 1992 essay titled Pigs in Cyberspace, Moravec may have been the first to formulate (in modern terms) the Apocalyptic AI idea of our reality as a simulation: “An evolving cyberspace becomes effectively ever more capacious and long lasting, and so can support ever more minds of ever greater power. If these minds spend only an infinitesimal fraction of their energy contemplating the human past, their sheer power should ensure that eventually our entire history is replayed many times in many places, and in many variations. The very moment we are now experiencing may actually be (almost certainly is) such a distributed mental event, and most likely is a complete fabrication that never happened physically.” See also my article CTRL-ALT-R: Another Life, partly inspired by conversations with Robert.

Moravec’s 1978 essay first appeared on the popular science fiction magazine Analog, and Geraci emphasizes the importance of science fiction in modern culture, science and technology. Science fiction may be a window on the future, but it is certainly a window on the present, and it provides snapshots of the zeitgeist and the deeper memes, hopes and fears of our society. Also, Life imitates Art: scientists and especially engineers are inspired by science fiction, and do their best to turn it into reality.

Science fiction and popular science books have an enormous influence on the popular culture and a deep impact on actual science policy and funding decisions. Geraci is well aware of the social dimension of scientific and technodevelopment, which does not happen spontaneously but must be seen as part of a social framework: science and technology are driven by social and cultural phenomena, and in turn they influence society and culture in a continuous feedback loop. In particular, Geraci thinks religions (and in particular Western religions) have been a very important factor in the development of science and technology, which are now beginning to shape religions in turn.

Among the science fiction novels featured in the book, Marvin Minsky’s The Turing Option, with a very readable explanation of Minsky’s thoughts on Artificial Intelligence, Sir Arthur Clarke’s The City and the Stars, with the first (1956) description of mind uploading, and William Gibson’s seminal cyberpunk novel Neuromancer. In Neuromancer, Gibson introduced the concept of cyberspace, which became a meeting point of counterculture and computer science and prepared the way for the emergence of the Internet and virtual worlds like Second Life: a powerful example of the deep impact of science fiction literature on science, technology, culture and society.

According to Geraci, Apocalyptic AI is a religion: it is a religion based on science, without deities and supernatural phenomena, but with the apocalyptic promises of religions. And he thinks that, while the Apocalyptic AI religion has a powerful but often hidden presence in our culture, the Transhumanist community embraces it openly and explicitly. Transhumanism is first defined as “a new religious movement“, and throughout the book Geraci continues to see it as a modern religion.

This may shock and upset many transhumanists readers who proudly see themselves as champions of science and rationality against religious superstition. Not this reader, though. I remember my first impressions after joining the Extropy mailing list in the late 90s. I thought, this is a powerful new religion for the new millennium. Fortunately I did not write it: if I had, I would probably have been booted from the list immediately, and now I expect some transhumanists will unfriend me on Facebook and the transhumanist social networks, but perhaps they have already done so since I have been writing about this for years. I am honored to see many of my essays quoted and discussed in Apocalyptic AI.

Robert does not write as a True Believer in Apocalyptic AI (aka Robot Cultist), but rather as a sociologist and an anthropologist observing an interesting cultural and social trend. But he is certainly a friendly observer: Chapter 3 of the book is entirely dedicated to his long field recog mission behind transhumanist lines in Second Life. He attended the 2007 Seminar on Transhumanism and Religion in SL (see page 99 for a picture of our beloved transhumanist avatar Extropia DaSilva giving her lecture) and many events related to transhumanism and religion in 2008 and 2009. In the process, he became a friendly observer in our community, and a good friend of many transhumanist users of Second Life.

Bill Bainbridge, whose work is also extensively featured in the book, has given many lectures in Second Life and written two articles (1981 and 2009) on Religion for a Galactic Civilization: “it is wrong to feel that irrational religion must always be a hindrance to progress. I have suggested that only a transcendent, impractical, radical religion can take us to the stars.” Perhaps Geraci is persuaded that we may need such a new Galactic Religion, and he quotes an interesting exchange (pp. 374 and 375 of The Singularity is Near), where Ray Kurzweil and Bill Gates agree that we need a new religion, based on science.

A new religion, based on science, has been proposed by the Order of Cosmic Engineers (OCE), of which Bainbridge has been one of the founders. Robert Geraci has witnessed the birth of the Order in the cyberspaces of World of Warcraft and Second Life, where the foundation of the OCE was announced at the Conference on The Future of Religions – Religions of the Future, on June 4 and 5, 2008. He writes: “The Order of Cosmic Engineers… is a remarkable fusion of transhumanist religious ideals and life in virtual worlds. It is a group whose aims were presented by Moravec and Kurzweil but which now sees itself in the historically enviable position of pioneer.” I should add that, after the online publication of Bainbridge’s revised version of Religion for a Galactic Civilization and Ben Goertzel’s Cosmist Manifesto in 2009, the OCE has entered a reflexion phase and a subgroup is drafting a systematic framework for a synthetic religion.

Chapter 4 outlines some frequently discussed issues in robotics and AI, for example: Can Artificial Intelligences be conscious, and how can we prove they are conscious? Should AI robots have rights? Can society adapt to robot citizens? How can humans and robots live together? The last question is especially problematic, and thinkers like Moravec and Hugo de Garis believe the era of biological humans will soon be over. In Chapter 5, on The Integration of Religion, Science, and Technology, Geraci writes “Apocalyptic AI, as a successful integration of religion, science, and technology, offers a challenge to the conventional approach in the study of religion and science“, but he does not think religion and science can be integrated, or peacefully coexist, without serious problems.

I liked the book very, very much. But, in a book review, I am supposed to criticize something. What I wish to criticize, is the excessive emphasis on “dualism” in Apocalyptic AI: machines against bodies, minds against brains, software against meat, cyberspace against meatspace. Extreme dualism may be a defining feature of a simplified, black and white Apocalyptic AI caricature, but I don’t think it is a defining feature of modern transhumanism. We tend to see a continuum of shades of grey instead of black and white extremes.

I don’t see myself as a dualist. I think our bodies and brain are machines, in the sense that they are physical systems which obey the laws of physics and can be, in principle, fully understood, reverse engineered and improved. I think they are good machines, but I also think we can build better machines. We don’t hate our biological bodies and brains, shaped by evolution over hundreds of millions of years, but we think in a few decades or a couple of centuries we will be able to engineer much better physical supports for our minds, and we will enter a new phase of directed evolution, toward Moravec’s apocalyptic vision.

Author: William Halal
Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan
ISBN-10: 0230019544
ISBN-13: 9780230019546
Format: Hardcover, 256 pages

Technology’s Promise: Expert Knowledge on the Transformation of Business and Societybrilliantly deals with the co-evolution of technology, business and society. It is a concise but complete “history of the future,” covering most scientific and technological fields, with specific scenarios until 2050 and with general ideas for the future of humanity.

This truly fascinating book by William Halal is a summary of his current research aided by an expert panel of about 100 futurists around the world. Halal was educated as an aerospace engineer who served as an Air Force officer, worked on the Apollo Program and in Silicon Valley, and has always been following science and technology and its impact on the “real world.”

Halal is already a respected author, with popular books such as Internal Markets: Bringing the Power of Free Enterprise Inside Your Organization (1993), The Infinite Resource: Creating and Leading the Knowledge Enterprise (1998), and The New Management: Bringing Democracy & Markets Inside Organizations (1998). His new book now builds on his cumulative experience and that of his TechCast expert panel, which Halal founded a few years ago.

TechCast can be described as a virtual think-tank that tracks the technology revolution and its impact on humanity. The TechCast Project at George Washington University has developed a sophisticated Web site that surveys 100 high-tech executives, scientists, engineers, academics, consultants, futurists, and other experts around the world to forecast breakthroughs in all fields of science and technology. The project strives to be the most complete forecasting system available, covering the entire span of technological innovation and updated constantly. The current global TechCast results, blended together in a masterful way by Halal with his futurist ideas and visions, are the basis of Technology’s Promise.

Halal begins his book with an excellent guide to the present technological revolution, followed by specific chapters about the most important technologies and their direct impacts on business and society. He then carefully reviews most of the major areas covered in the TechCast Project: energy and environment, information technology. E-commerce, manufacturing and robotics, medicine and biogenetics, transportation and space:

Part I: Forecasts of the Technology Revolution makes an excellent summary of current developments and future possibilities in each field.

Part II: Social Impacts of the Technology Revolution builds on the previous chapters in order to visualize possible futures and the direct impact of science and technology on social institutions during this current Knowledge Age, which seems to be giving birth to an Age of Consciousness. The author argues that these changes are fundamental to the very survival of humanity.

Halal then integrates all the previous forecasts across the different fields in vivid scenarios that take the readers in a virtual trip through time. He refers to the “World Online” for the 2010 scenario, the “High-Tech Arrival” for the 2020 scenario, the “Crisis of Maturity” for 2030 and the “Global Order” for 2040−2050.

He finishes on a personal note, understanding our place in history and reviewing the “life cycle of evolution”: “I marvel at what great privilege it is to witness this maturing of civilization’s long journey.”

Technology’s Promise: Table of Contents
Foreword: Basic Training for the 21st Century, by Marvin Cetron
Preface: Discovering the Forces of Transformation
Ch. 1 Introduction: Guiding Technology’s Promise
Part I: Forecasts of the Technology Revolution
Ch. 2 Transition to a Sustainable World: Converting the Energy and Environment Mess into an Opportunity
Ch. 3 Globalization Goes High-Tech: A Worrisome World of Abundance
Ch. 4 Society Moves Online: The Transforming Power of Information Technology and E-Commerce
Ch. 5 Mastery Over Life: Promises and Perils of Biogenetics
Ch. 6 Faster and Farther: Building the Global Transportation System
Ch. 7 The Final Frontier: Preludes to Deep Space Travel
Part II: Social Impacts of the Technology Revolution
Ch. 8 Shifting Structures of Society: Business, Government, and Other Institutions in a Knowledge Age
Ch. 9 An Age of Consciousness: The Next Phase in Technology’s Promise?
Ch. 10 Scenarios: A Virtual Trip Through Time
Appendix: The TechCast Expert Panel

The book is really a masterpiece that must be read by people seriously interested in the future, and even those who only want some glimpses of many things to come. I thoroughly enjoyed reading it, even if I might be more radical in terms of the speed and the changes that are happening. For example, the ideas of Ray Kurzweil and the “Singularity,” the continuous acceleration of change, and the possible technological evolution of humans to transhumans and posthumans are only briefly mentioned in the book. However, I think that they are very powerful ideas that could make the future change faster and faster, and in more unpredictable ways.

All in all, the possibilities considered by Halal are truly fascinating, and Technology’s Promise is a fantastic way to review the history of the future, including several intriguing time scenarios.

Most previous popular treatments of subliminal forces haven’t been data driven. Vedantam, who until recently wrote the Department of Human Behavior column for The Washington Post, hopes to fill that gap. His entertaining romp through covert influences on human behavior began as a series of columns, and true to its genesis, it reads as vivid reportage overlaid with a sampling of science.

Ranging widely from the role of social conformity in violence to snapshots of racial and gender prejudice, Vedantam draws expansive arcs between findings from social psychology and the nation’s sensibilities and voting patterns. “Unconscious bias reaches into every corner of your life,” he writes, thanks to a “hidden brain” generally inaccessible through introspection. [...]

The revolution is happening before our eyes, but we don’t recognize it, because it’s incremental. It starts with driving. Cruise control transfers regulation of your car’s speed to a computer. In some models, you can upgrade to adaptive cruise control, which monitors the surrounding traffic by radar and adjusts your speed accordingly.

If you drift out of your lane, an option called lane keeping assistance gently steers you back. For extra safety, you can get extended brake assistance, which monitors traffic ahead of you, alerts you to collision threats and applies as much braking pressure as necessary. [...]

Some people see a squatter city in Nigeria or India and the desperation overwhelms them: rickety shelters, little kids working or begging, filthy water and air. Stewart Brand sees the same places and he’s encouraged. The pioneering environmentalist, technology thinker, and founder of the Whole Earth Catalog has written a new manifesto, Whole Earth Discipline, in which he defends genetic engineering, nuclear power, and other longtime nemeses of the green left as good for the planet.

Brand also makes a counterintuitive case that the booming slums and squatter cities in and around Mumbai, Nairobi, and Rio de Janeiro are net positives for poor people and the environment. Wired asked him to elaborate. [...]

Dr. Vinge is a mathematician and computer scientist in San Diego whose science fiction has won five Hugo Awards and earned good reviews even from engineers analyzing its technical plausibility… The problem is a concept described in Dr. Vinge’s seminal essay in 1993, “The Coming Technological Singularity,” which predicted that computers would be so powerful by 2030 that a new form of superintellligence would emerge. Dr. Vinge compared that point in history to the singularity at the edge of a black hole: a boundary beyond which the old rules no longer applied, because post-human intelligence and technology would be as unknowable to us as our civilization is to a goldfish.

The Singularity is often called “the rapture of the nerds,” but Dr. Vinge doesn’t anticipate immortal bliss. The computer scientist in him may revel in the technological marvels, but the novelist envisions catastrophes and worries about the fate of not-so-marvelous humans like Robert Gu, the protagonist of Dr. Vinge’s latest novel, Rainbows End.

It’s an unsettling vision, but Dr. Vinge classifies it as one of the least unpleasant scenarios for the future: intelligence amplification, or I.A., in which humans get steadily smarter by pooling their knowledge with one another and with computers, possibly even wiring the machines directly into their brains.

The alternative to I.A., he figures, could be the triumph of A.I. as artificial intelligence far surpasses the human variety. If that happens, Dr. Vinge says, the superintelligent machines will not content themselves with working for their human masters, nor will they remain securely confined in laboratories. As he wrote in his 1993 essay: “Imagine yourself confined to your house with only limited data access to the outside, to your masters. If those masters thought at a rate — say — one million times slower than you, there is little doubt that over a period of years (your time) you could come up with ‘helpful advice’ that would incidentally set you free.”

To avoid that scenario, Dr. Vinge has been urging his fellow humans to get smarter by collaborating with computers. (See nytimes.com/tierneylab for some of his proposals.) At the conclusion of “Rainbows End,” even the technophobic protagonist is in sync with his machines, and there are signs that the Singularity has arrived in the form of a superintelligent human-computer network. [...]

Also see:
“How to Get Smarter,” a post by John Tierney on The New York Times: TierneyLab Blog.

One thread in the book is launch of an expanding wavefront of intelligence, converting matter into nano-engineered computronium that is then assembled into M-brains. These then send out seeds that encode the ability to bootstrap new nano-manufacturing capacity on suitable worlds, where minds can take up residence, either downloaded from the seed or transmitted through the UniverseNet.

Full disclosure: Amara D. Angelica, editor, wrote the chapter, “Communicating with the Universe.”

How do our brains generate consciousness? Are animals or newborn babies conscious? Can machines be conscious? If not, why not? How is free will possible, or creativity? How are the brain and mind different? What counts as a language? [...]

The book, however, is more about frustration than achievement. Despite the round-the-clock efforts of the best and the brightest, today’s real-life robots are a dim, lumbering lot, a far cry from the wise, nimble models of science fiction. Indeed, the book might well have been titled “Not Very Human” or “Almost Human in the Dark if You Really, Really Want to Believe.” Yet even in the period that Gutkind observed them, the robots did get smarter or, in the case of a robotic soccer team, more agile.

The institute’s engineers tweaked their software, mended their hardware and often viewed these activities as art rather than science. “I am like Tolstoy,” said a woman working at the lab, a college student majoring in engineering. “He struggled and suffered for his art. I love the pain, because when you have a breakthrough, when something works, it is such a rush.”

Surprisingly, Autodesk founder John Walker sides with intelligent design, but not by a deity — by post-Singularity intelligences creating a reality simulation: “What would we expect to see if we inhabited a simulation? Well, there would probably be a discrete time step and granularity in position fixed by the time and position resolution of the simulation — check, and check: the Planck time and distance appear to behave this way in our universe. There would probably be an absolute speed limit to constrain the extent we could directly explore and impose a locality constraint on propagating updates throughout the simulation — check: speed of light.

There would be a limit on the extent of the universe we could observe — check: the Hubble radius is an absolute horizon we cannot penetrate, and the last scattering surface of the cosmic background radiation limits electromagnetic observation to a still smaller radius. There would be a limit on the accuracy of physical measurements due to the finite precision of the computation in the simulation — check: Heisenberg uncertainty principle — and, as in games, randomness would be used as a fudge when precision limits were hit—check: quantum mechanics.”

The book was written by roboticist Daniel H. Wilson, a graduate of Carnegie Mellon University’s Robotics Institute. Paramount has bought movie rights.

What makes the book cool — and unlike some other survival books — is that Wilson is an actual roboticist, who got his Ph.D. from Carnegie Mellon last month. While his scenarios are outlandish — describing attacks by humanoid robots, some of them with creepy tails, some that can climb walls or swim — the research on how to build and attack the robot creatures is quite real.

Randall argues that without any experimental feedback, string theorists may never reach their goal. She prefers a different strategy, called model building. Rather than seeking to create an all-encompassing theory, she develops models — mini-theories that target specific testable problems and that might then point the way to a more general theory.

For example, what if, they ask, higher dimensions are not small and curled up but large, perhaps infinite in size? Would there be any observable consequences? So they build models of what the universe might look like if it consisted of objects called branes (short for “membranes”).

Kurzweil imagines a future where the positive aspects of the new technology are available freely to everyone, allowing each of us to customize our own selves to the point where immortality — or complete spiritual freedom from the body, if that’s what you want — is more than a promise or a legend or a fable.

Countering Kurzweil’s vision are the prophets of doom, led by Silicon Valley pioneer Bill Joy, who worry that unrestricted experimentation with self-replicating nanobots could result in the entire planet — you, me, and everything around us, right down to the core — turned into food for invisible, ravenous robots. This “grey goo” nightmare is cataloged by Garreau in his “Hell” scenario, along with other dystopias of the Brave New World variety.

He imagines rodents zooming around with night-vision survival goggles, squirrels hoarding nuts using GPS locators and fish armed with metal detectors to avoid the angler’s hook.

Cybernetics is the science of feedback — how information can help self-regulate a system. That includes everything from biological mechanisms (like the human immune system) to artificial ones, like thermostats that regulate a building’s temperature. Even in the early 20th century, when Wiener did his work, feedback mechanics weren’t new; engineers had long been building steam engines that self-regulated their speed. But Wiener’s genius was to label the mysterious ghost that powered feedback: information.

It’s hard to imagine now, in our modern digital world — where “cyber” is a prefix for everything from sex to pets — but “information” as a discrete concept did not widely exist before Wiener. (Early Bell engineers referred to the signal traveling over telephone wires as “the commodity to be transported by a telephone system.”) By separating out information as a kind of Platonic solid unto itself, Wiener created the idea that scientists could measure information in a system and tweak it for optimal efficiency.