Brain imaging reveals why we remain optimistic in the face of reality
October 10, 2011
Distinct regions of the prefrontal cortex tracked estimation errors when those called for positive update, but highly optimistic individuals exhibited reduced tracking of estimation errors that called for negative update in the right inferior prefrontal gyrus. (Credit: Tali Sharot et al./Nature Neuroscience)
People who are very optimistic about the outcome of events tend to learn only from information that reinforces their rose-tinted view of the world, related to a “faulty” function of their frontal lobes, researchers at the Wellcome Trust Centre for Neuroimaging at UCL (University College London) have shown.
This is a problem that has puzzled scientists for decades: why is human optimism is so pervasive, when reality continuously confronts us with information that challenges these biased beliefs? In this new study, the researchers found this due to errors in how we process the information in our brains.
Nineteen volunteers were presented with a series of negative life events, such as car theft or Parkinson’s disease, while lying in a functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) scanner, which measures activity in the brain. They were asked to estimate the probability that this event would happen to them in the future. After a short pause, the volunteers were told the average probability of this event to occur. In total, the participants saw eighty such events.
After the scanning sessions, the participants were asked once again to estimate the probability of each event occurring to them. They were also asked to fill in a questionnaire measuring their level of optimism.
The researchers found that people did, in fact, update their estimates based on the information given, but only if the information was better than expected. For example if they had predicted that their likelihood of suffering from cancer was 40%, but the average likelihood was 30%, they might adjust their estimate to 32%. If the information was worse than expected — for example, if they had estimated 10% — then they tended to adjust their estimate much less, as if ignoring the data.
The results of the brain scans suggested why this might be the case. All participants showed increased activity in the frontal lobes of the brain when the information given was better than expected, this activity actively processed the information to recalculate an estimate.
However, when the information was worse than estimated, the more optimistic a participant was (according to the personality questionnaire), the less efficiently activity in these frontal regions coded for it, suggesting they were disregarding the evidence presented to them.
For example, “many experts believe the financial crisis in 2008 was precipitated by analysts overestimating the performance of their assets even in the face of clear evidence to the contrary,” said researcher Dr. Tali Sharot of UCL.
Ref.: Tali Sharot, Christoph W. Korn & Raymond J. Dolan, How unrealistic optimism is maintained in the face of reality, Nature Neuroscience, 2011; [DOI:10.1038/nn.2949]
Comments (6)
by NakedApe
I see so many negative comments about scientific research that it’s depressing reading. If we didn’t question the world around us and frequently ended up barking up the wrong tree then we would have the intelligence of moss. I, for one, enjoy various scientific hypotheses even if they seem far-fetched at the time. Who would ever think that quantuum mechanics is nothing but the raving of a madman. And, yet, it works for reasons we don’t understand. And what about dark matter…
Vstoriguard hit it right on the nail when he/she said that optimism is an evolutionarily derived characteristic. So are altruism and religious delusions. Humanity suffers from delusions of grandeur and self-importance because we hate to admit that our lives are meaningless and insignificant in a universal context. But this mindset gives us the desire to go on reproducing and investing in our offspring. Bingo! That is exactly the “aim” of evolution. Evolution doesn’t do things in a logical or ethical way but in a contingent manner where whatever works, succeeds. If it works to steal, cheat, kill, rape or believe in non-existent gods, then that person lives to breed and pass on his genes and thereby his/her way of thinking and behaving. Happily, being good, kind and helpful to our fellow human being also results in reproductive success. So, stop poo-pooing scientists for questioning the world and develop some original hypotheses of your own!
by Vstoriguard
Yet, it seems that optimism is a powerful survival characteristic. In the face of overwhelming odds we keep on fighting. And, sometimes we win. Evolution would thus seem to tend toward optimism.
victor s.
http://www.amazon.com/-/e/B005JT22MG
by equsnarnd
What an incredibly stupid piece of ‘science.’ Optimism is an attitude about life, not a reasoned response to events. When you can’t know the outcome of something, but are involved in it none-the-less, a ‘belief’ about the outcome is a projection based on many things. Meaning that ‘optimism’ changes depending on what criteria one uses to evaluate a situation. It is not a monolithic, fundamental stance. This article, and the researchers seem to have treated it as such. It seems they went looking for the ‘science’ to confirm a belief they already had. This experiment is so confounded over it’s own terms as to render it totally useless and a waste of taxpayer money. But I am nothing but ‘pessimistic’ that the researchers will ever see the foolishness of their design.
by Khannea Suntzu
Maybe I am just too sane to.
by carolillouz
Hmmm, I’m wondering what the Allen Institute for Brain Science is cooking these days. Their Symposium was last week. Nothing about reading an interesting article just to go sideways from the defined angle ? Ok this is all about scientific data, but what’s beyond the biologic mechanism? Why and when it starts. Is it a survival instinct because frankly if we weren’t activating these mechanisms we will be consuming Lorazepam and Prozac, like drinking water. And what about those totally delusional who can’t face any bit of reality that displease them ?.They are legion these days….:)
by croftandi
hi Ray, please take a look on my paper on the human brain transcendence, thanks:
http://www.nervos.ro/agrigoroaie_andi/blog/2011/10/09/the-design-of-brain-waves-through-sound-image-transcendence-with-deep-implications-inside-energy-and-mass-the-spark-of-a-unified-field-of-intelligence-and-higher-mathematics/