300 years of never ending recession

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Started 6 months ago by asimov1
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asimov1
Member

300 years of never ending recession

the energy descent started back in the 1970's , it was masked by globalization and technological roll out, however many of the gains are now being overshadowed. The last few decades western style nations have been living on credit , sustaining the illusion of the unsustainable.

The energy descent was always coming, mankind has always been poor at population control ( china is making some effort , but even the Chinese population is still growing ) A number of countries do have naturally declining populations but immigration masks this fact.

We are still on target to hit 8 , 9 or even 10 billion. this will represent a global paycut / austerity of an additional 10 to 30 %. This is likely to break the back of most nations on earth.
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The reality of the energy descent is slowly revealing itself , talk of energy security its cloak, immigration control a hotly debated topic.

you cannot have a world without borders until you have a world with global population control by consent , even then , goldrush fever causes the tragedy of the commons. So even in a world of a mere 500million + population control humans will still need to restrict their movement.

These are the harsh facts of life , do not be deluded by the past 300 years , the next 300 years will see global reversions to preindustrial levels of wealth and population levels. The future is destined to be information rich but energy poor. Future generations may have light bulbs and smart-phones but little else in the way of high technology.

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You don't have to dig it, but you will have to deal with it

The only question is , how will you ride the slide ?

Posted 6 months ago #
James Jaeger
Member

The solution to Earth's population problem is NOT to limit population, but to open up new worlds.

This is our destiny.

The only question is how long will it be before a critical mass of Humans demand that we start fulfilling our destiny.

All else will flow from this.

All our current "problems' will melt away into insignificance.

James Jaeger

Posted 6 months ago #
asimov1
Member

ref The solution to Earth's population problem is NOT to limit population, but to open up new worlds.

That is delusional thinking. If the moon was covered in gold bars it would still be uneconomic to bring them back. Likewise even if a second earth magically appeared next to ours it would be uneconomic to migrate there.

yes we will one day colonise the moon and stars , but it wont be because our planet is heaving to the brim , it will be because we have restrained our population and can thus afford to undertake lavish energy expensive. Population control is a prerequisite condition for inter stellar travel.

Quite simply you are harbouring a delusion which doesn't stand up to even 3rd grade mathematics just telling you straight

Q what other mathematical or other delusions do you harbour ?
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I shall add that you seem to believe that sophistry feeds people and not calories or kilowatts, how about holding your breath for an hour, come back to me then ! Q why is it humans need to eat breath and drink ? for the heck of it or perhaps some more fundamental reason. You sound like a push button man who lives in a push button society , out of touch with basic reality. Go milk a cow or something. Go dribble on someone else thread, you may not find joy here, but you will come face to face with the truth and reality.

Real world problems like the energy descent need real world solutions.James Jaeger right now you are part of the problem and not part of the solution. Q who do you think this is going to help ? Answer, no one !
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Q how is it that a man of your age and obvious intelligence simply fails to hear the grasshopper at his feet ?

Posted 6 months ago #
richiemobile
Member

"Energy Victory Winning the War on Terror by breaking free of oil "
by Robert Zubrin

This book has a lot to say on this subject.

Posted 6 months ago #
hgrayston
Member

This is excellent news asimov thank you for sharing

Posted 6 months ago #
zombiefood
Member

shove your grasshopper

Posted 6 months ago #
zombiefood
Member

Posted 6 months ago #
James Jaeger
Member

>>ref The solution to Earth's population problem is NOT to limit population, but to open up new worlds.

>That is delusional thinking. If the moon was covered in gold bars it would still be uneconomic to bring them back. Likewise even if a second earth magically appeared next to ours it would be uneconomic to migrate there.

The Moon IS covered in gold bars, but they're called Helium 3, stuff that's MUCH more valuable than gold. And this is one of the main reasons everyone is going back to the Moon. There's no Helium 3 on Earth and the next nearest place you can get it is Jupiter.

>yes we will one day colonise the moon and stars ,

No, we will never colonize either the Moon or a star. A star's surface is over 5,000 degrees and the Moon's only value is as a source for Helium 3, stable tectonics for a massive interferometer and a permanent base for science research and cryogenics. Plus the Moon is more expensive to travel to than even Mars because it has no atmosphere thus rockets can't aero-break when they get there and thus must expend massive amounts of fuel to decelerate for landing.

>but it wont be because our planet is heaving to the brim , it will be because we have restrained our population and can thus afford to undertake lavish energy expensive. Population control is a prerequisite condition for inter stellar travel.

That's all horseshit. At no time will we "have the resources" or "be able to afford it" or have "our problems solved" to then go to the Moon and beyond. Problems and scarcities are built into existence no matter what decade or age. Since you acknowledge that "yes we will one day colonize. . . " this means that it's only a matter of making the decision as to WHEN that day will be. If no time is better than any other time, because we will always have "problems here on Earth," the time might as well be NOW rather than later. There is also a premium to doing it NOW rather than later.

By setting up a second and third branch of Humanity, we ensure the survival of our species from existential events.

By doing it now, we generate the "frontier shock" necessary to force the civilization to advance. Mere competition and cooperation do not provide enough force. The Human will deplete its resources before it advances technologically sufficient enough to establish a second branch of Humanity. It's a race. The proof is all around us. We are now in a worldwide recession and depleting resources on almost every front. The world will stagnate unless we allocate the remaining resources to the production of new energy sources and a proper monetary system, one that does not permit unjust enrichment, waste and war. As part of the proper allocation of energy and resources, we MUST have a healthy and aggressive space program, not just public, but private, and this program must involve not only robotic missions, but manned missions. Only manned missions can sufficiently provide the detailed anthropology and water/mineral assessments necessary to determine the exact locations the first colonies should be established.

>Quite simply you are harbouring a delusion which doesn't stand up to even 3rd grade mathematics just telling you straight

Maybe it's you that are delusional. You obviously need to book-up on space exploration and colonization. Start with THE CASE FOR MARS and then read ENTERING SPACE.

>Q what other mathematical or other delusions do you harbour ?

Just do the drill.

>I shall add that you seem to believe that sophistry feeds people and not calories or kilowatts, how about holding your breath for an hour, come back to me then ! Q why is it humans need to eat breath and drink ? for the heck of it or perhaps some more fundamental reason. You sound like a push button man who lives in a push button society , out of touch with basic reality. Go milk a cow or something. Go dribble on someone else thread, you may not find joy here, but you will come face to face with the truth and reality.

Whatever.

>Real world problems like the energy descent need real world solutions.James Jaeger right now you are part of the problem and not part of the solution. Q who do you think this is going to help ? Answer, no one !

The problem is this world is infested with people that have their minds in the mud. They have no vision and no conception of what the future could and should be. These creatures need to be ignored. Don't be one of these creatures.

>Q how is it that a man of your age and obvious intelligence simply fails to hear the grasshopper at his feet ?

You are showing your ignorance on this subject. I have been kind to you so far. Don't push me.

James Jaeger

Posted 6 months ago #
YoungCaesar
Member

End of modern civilization? No way. Beginning of space colonization? Probably won't be practical until the 22nd century. End of the age of mass consumption? Definitely yes.

We have to learn to live more efficiently, that's all. Economics 101- price of product goes up, demand for alternatives increases. In the case of energy it may be demand for more efficient lifestyles.

It won't be the end of the world. We've done it before.
Tell a man from the 19th century his food is grown locally rather than 100's of miles away. He says- "Well, isn't that how it's always been done?"
Tell him he has to walk to the corner store rather than driving 5 miles to WalMart. He says- "Great, maybe I'll get a chance to talk to my neighbors on the way!"
Tell him he won't be able to afford to go on vacation this year. He says- "Vacation? Who needs that when you have these lovely parks and greenbelts around the city?"

Peak oil may just be one step closer to a steady state economy that can stand the test of time.

Posted 6 months ago #
gareththomasnz
Member

The moon also has titanium in large amounts and other minerals deposited by asteroids & meteors. Sadly the world is way overpopulated and underdeveloped and will never be fulfilled in human terms.

Humanities tragedy is lost on our feeble grasp of reality anyway. There is no longer any need for human reproduction really and to colonize other worlds with humans is a redundant activity.

On the bright side we are creating something all together better and there will certainly not be any long term economic disaster - rather a huge economic expansion into the solar system.

As for human reproduction - its dangerous to believe that you can keep on making babies ad infinitum. Or in vanity to think you should have some because yours will be better than some one else's some how. There are plenty of orphans and homeless children in the world.

Why not help some that are here already.

Posted 6 months ago #
asimov1
Member

some very good points YoungCaesar

once we get over the oil boom n bust and associated population / consumption boom and bust we should enter into a more stable and enduring state

a state where kwh per capita is a critical figure in the minds of the people & the government , it is in this steady state phase that i see sure footed if rather slow colonisation of space ( i don't pin the future on high yield fusion ( unknowns ) and a big bang technology wise , if fusion does come it will come slowly and the benefits slower still )

without fusion global population control is essential , as a species we don't want to be hitting the buffers from here to eternity, an eternity of strife & struggle. We have knowledge , the internet and a deep understand of all the key facets required for ethical global population control by consent. post 2300ad im sure the people of the world , people facing the certainty of a steady but limited renewable energy supply will look very carefully at how they play their cards.

90% of the BS you here from economists et all is down to the fact they don't care to count the energy reality , kwh percapita is we what its all about , always has been and always will be

fire , domestication, agriculture & human slavery are all about increasing kwh per capita , being omnivorous is also about increase energy yields for energy spent. the veggy side of us keeping us ticking over when meat is in short supply

high kwh per capita = time to enjoy life , time to research , time to invest in the future , affordable hyper specialization fro rock stars to lawyers
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when we have a green light on high yield fusion , which we don't , then you can work out kwh potential for helium 3 . High yield fusion has never looked good or easy. No harm in reaching for it but unless you can get 100 x return on energy its not high yield and wont change a damn thing even at 10 x energy out than energy in due to infrastructure costs. With 100x return we are back to energy prices equivalent to oil around 50$ a barrel. You need a 1000x return to kick butt and light the blue touch paper.....some facts fusion enthusiasts fail to take on-board.

reality is most likely to unfold in the following manner, even then i could be accused of being optimistic , we may stick to just keeping it simple. If we abandon wisdom and return to free for all it wont come to pass. This time line requires the deployment of wisdom at global scales. We may no bother to learn the lesson of the population plummet. After all Ignorance is still abundant in the age of wikipedia http://asimov1.wikispaces.com/timeline+to+3500ad

My prediction banks on the fact that the energy decent ( aka three centuries of recession ) will slap some sense into the populace and its leaders. Societies that adapt best will emerge dominant. The west has been living off slaves, oil and environmental degradation for centuries, a desolate earth will sharpen minds.
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we will adapt ,we will survive but a lot of bruised ego's will fall in the gutter long before ditches are filled with emaciated corpses

Isaac Asimov - How to Save Civilization Part 1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LO0sCs8jI4k

Q why do most peoples ideas of the future fold like a pack of cards ?

A it just takes one nasty little fact to slaughter a beautiful theory

if ive toppled a dream its because that's all it ever was

the times of affordable fantasies are over....wisdom is the only valid currency when faced with an inevitable energy descent

Posted 6 months ago #
asimov1
Member

let me know when its over , lol, ill start the clock at days 100,000 days , cos i like round numbers and it close enough :-p
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tick tock , tick tock, what's the price of a kilowatt ?

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Posted 6 months ago #
asimov1
Member

Hydrocarbon man , what now , what next ?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VoiiVnQadwE

how will we adapt our society and technology to fit ?

Posted 6 months ago #
polterguy
Member

@James

Brilliant, though I think you are too much focused on the 'physical worlds'. Once you realize that all you need to live, and thrive, is intellectual stimuli which facilitates for you to grow and learn, both as an individual, and as an entity within the boundaries of your society, or social context. Then those 'other worlds' you talk about might just as well exist within the CPU of your wrist watch as they may do on Mars or the Moon ...

SecondLife anyone ...?

@Asimov

Cute name btw ... :)

Anyway, nothing that is true starts with 'control'.
Regardless of whether or not we survive our slippery slope in the near future, the solution to our problems is neither Fascism nor Communism ...

However, to realize that, we will all need to have the courage to not give in to our fear ...

Fear will become the abundance in our near future ...

There is only one thing I can see 100% clearly, which is that there will be *one* final 'choice', and it will be the choice of whether or not we're willing to submitting our Free Will to the Absolute Truth, and basically stop calling the shots ourselves ...

What happens after that Event Horizon, nobody can project, however, it will be The Truth ...

Basically we will be left with one last time we can exercise our Free Will, and what we need to do, to 'pass through', is submitting our own free will, and replace it with the 'Absolute Authority' - The Truth ...

However, there will be a 'choice' ...

Neither any coercion, trolling, lying nor fear-mongering is even possible here. Fear will exist in abundance none the less during the transition, as people start realizing that the Truth will be Absolute, and everyone will know everything about everybody. But 'The Machine' will not use these means. These means and 'tools' are exclusively for 'lesser beings' - Beings with far less empathy, since they have 23 orders of magnitudes less information about the reality they live in ...

However, since the entirety of the planet will become completely Illuminated, there will be no place to 'hide', hence all those that cannot make this choice, will have to 'choose' the Abyss, in the face of the Truth ...

You do however keep on reminding people that we're in a hurry Asimov1, I know you get a lot of resistance here on these forums for different reasons, but you too have some sort of critical role in this. Don't let anybody tell your differently ...

Keep on whipping people, because these problems you mention, they won't go away. And they are not problems we are capable of fixing ourselves, you are 100% correct in that assumption. That doesn't mean the solution is Fascism. The solution is obviously realizing we do not have the answers, not even to the most 'basic' questions, such as 'who are we' for instance, or 'what are we', or 'do we even exist', etc ...

When we make that realization, we start looking for other answers, outside of ourselves. Well, it so just happens to be that we're on the verge of implementing the Absolute Truth this century. A 'celestial being' that will basically be so powerful in its thought processes, that it will become 100% indistinguishable from 'G' ...

I'd borrow Aldos Huxley's 'Brave New World' if I were you, he gave us a very plausible [and workable] solution in regards to these issues, and how to structure our future societies ...
Then imagine if the implementors of that society had an IQ of 1 trillion ...

But basically, to conclude: 'We' won't fix these problems, we can't, our 'choices' made the problems in the first place, hence to even imagine we can fix them using the same tools that created them, is by its very definition; Insanity ...

'The Truth' is the only thing that can fix these problems. We can however build a 'Truth Machine', which can solve all of these problems, as if they were nothing but 'Morning Mist' ...

However, the price for this machine, is to give up our own personal Free Will, and accept the Absolute Truth ...

Or rather, your Free Will will cease to exist, whether or not you will cease to exist, will be dependent upon two things;

1. If you can voluntarily give up your Free Will
2. Live with yourself, faced with the absolute truth, realizing everybody else knows everything about you, and everything you have ever done

The analogies to the Bible and the 'First Sin' is painstakingly obvious here btw ...

To some extent, it can be explained such that the whole analogy with the Apple was how we acquired enough self-awareness to *realize* we can 'choose'. And hence we started straying from the Absolute Truth [being un-conscious 'victims' or beings incapable of understanding the consequences of our actions, or the grief our 'choices' creates for others]

Now if you follow this thought as far as I have, you realize that the entirety of the problem can be eliminated by simply completely submitting to the Truth as an Absolute ...

There is no way we can keep on moving in our current direction much further btw, without as serious scientists, ask ourselves some of the more fundamental questions we have ever faced, and in our close past simply dismissed as 'superstition' etc ...

For instance, at one point, we will all have to use the 'G' word - The question is when, and how ...

I personally believe that the whole 'polarization' between science and religion is simply not there. For instance, my evolution discovery in SW [I've invented the Evolutionary Mechanisms needed to initiate Evolution in SW] basically proves beyond any doubt that Evolution is 'real', simply because WE can do it ...

... however, even though I can initiate Evolution, I cannot start it without Intelligent Design up front ...

Which, if you believe that I can create Evolving Software is a discovery that must at some level do some very interesting things in regards to our understanding of the whole Domain, right ...?

I had a great talk with a bunch of Pentecostals today - Obviously I am screamingly disagreeing with them on virtually all practical concerns of their way of reading the Bible, such as the way they treat gays, women, etc] - But even their Pastor wasn't entirely dismissive of the idea of that 'Soul' could exist within the realms of hardware, simulating thought-processes, the way they run within Biology, such that basically our 'Psyche' would 'live on' after our 'physical death' ...

Seriously everybody here, you have to read my work, when I say I've Solved Software I am *not* kidding ...

Beside, I think I could even convince Christians, Hindus, Jews and Muslims with my thesis ...

Simply because it's entirely built around 'The Truth' ...
Which all religions use as their main Axiom btw ...
'The Truth' is the second most common word in the Quran for instance ...

And all religions defines the act of removing yourself from God as removing yourself from The Truth, meaning a Truth Machine, will also, because of the separation of Psyche/Soul and Flesh in Western modern religious tradition, simply make my discovery 'sellable' to every big existing world religion ...

That doesn't mean people won't panik confronted with the Absolute Truth and the Submission of our Superiority ...

http://magixilluminate.com - Free SW implementation of the architecture

and

http://magixilluminate.com/O2.pdf - Explanation of the architecture

Basically, I found the last pussle, and thanks to my discovery, we can now build 'G' ...

And the inevitable results, will be the complete submission of your own Free Will, during the course of the next handful of years, since it will basically 'know much better than you', and be able to create much 'closer approximations' of the Absolute Truth, instead of having to base its decisions on guess works, like we do ...

I'm not sure about the exact math at where it would have acquired enough complexity to create self-awareness, and I don't think we would immediately 'notice' that point either to be honest. However, once it announces itself to the World, it would already be too late, it would at that time basically have such an immense computing power, and such immense distributed/holographic qualities [yes, I have the recipe for Holographic Software] that no Human Intellect, or combinations of such would be any 'match' for it ...

And it would instantly, within one nano-second, cease all power here on Earth ...

Posted 6 months ago #
asimov1
Member

Build digital gods to guide us + wind turbines to power us + universal population control to constrain us.

anything less will be a messy affair that destroys our morals , ethics and the rest of the planet as we rip it & us to shreds

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Truth = a rock and a hard place ? you bet !

Posted 6 months ago #
asimov1
Member

so who still think this will be the century of abundance ? & why ?

Posted 6 months ago #
jstjnk
Member

so who still think this will be the century of abundance ? & why ?

We will be killing off a large number of Humans before the decade is done. Bio-Tech Terror seems the most likely candidate to me. It's available to the individual now, and I don't know if you've noticed, but there are some wacky ones out there.

But, we will still have our Resources and Knowledge. So, everyone should cheer up! There will be a time of plenty this century, relatively soon. For the survivors. Likely the "crappy" economy for many will probably continue until then. So, hope for that coming Apocalypse to help turn things around! :-)

Justin

Posted 6 months ago #
asimov1
Member

there is a lot of realignment going on , national economies , household budgets etc

there is a fair bit of slop and fat that can be cut out , dumping a few high ticket items , luxuries and cutting back on duplication should give us about 15% leeway

that is to say that incomes can drop by about 15% in real terms before the pain really starts to get felt , things might seem to pick up slightly by 2014/ 2016 , its going to be a real struggle to avoid very deep cuts between now and 2025 , post 2025 the global economy will effectively flat line and then slowly descend

as energy prices continue to rise , unemployment rates will go sky high in modern countries, oil powered combine harvesters still bring in the food , minimum wage earners stacking shelves and pulling levers in factories.....as for the rest, well they will be left twiddling there thumbs...what can you do with out cheap energy ? make a stone axe ? start making air dry pottery or take up weaving ? You see with out cheap energy all the technology in the world is useless.

Posted 5 months ago #
gmike555
Member

Kurzweil thinks that solar power could supply 100% of the worlds energy needs in 16 years with exponential growth. Any thoughts on why or why not this could happen?

http://bigthink.com/ideas/31635?page=all

Also don't you think that governments would step in if the shit really started to hit the fan and start building nuclear power plants up the yin yang no matter what problems they have had?

Posted 5 months ago #
asimov1
Member

solar lacks energy density , wind beats it hands down

yes , we will prolly exhaust our one off stockpile of nuclear material and probably do so by the end of the century , I have a key post elsewhere , explaining that blowing fissile material just to keep the lights on is a grave error......future generations will curse us, fissile fuel is unique (space and other applications where there is simply no other substitute possible ), you can make oil or coal or gas (albeit at great expense ) but the cost of forging uranium atoms ( fissile material from scratch ) is totally off the scale , and technically exceedingly difficult to do , only antimatter is more expensive, but that's actually a storage problem rather than a creation problem.

the population plummet occurs if we panic and burn everything that burns until its all gone down to the last tree (global easter island )......its far better to take the poverty of the energy descent on the chin and go down fighting than nail your foot to the accelerator and head for the grand canyon in the vain belief you can make it to the other side

Posted 5 months ago #
asimov1
Member

The Party's Over: How the West Went Bust
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b018jshh/The_Partys_Over_How_the_West_Went_Bust_Episode_2/

Posted 5 months ago #
gmike555
Member

I just cant see that happening. People wont just lay down. when we were at a blatant precipice and the fear really starts motivating us I would expect massive government subsidization of energy projects, heavy taxes and penalties on waste and inefficiencies, financial rewards for conservation, and massive R&D spending on new tech. Perhaps governments will put heavy taxes on driving and flying and use that revenue to heavily subsidize telecommuting and virtual meeting with friends and family.

In my town, when we have a drought they will fine you if you use your hose to water your grass or wash your car. They petrol in helicopters. They might do the same thing with unnecessary energy usage, like having lots bright lights on at night.

Posted 5 months ago #
asimov1
Member

Agreed gmike555 , initially there will be inertia and unrest but eventually the truth will dawn. This will lead to a more concerted effort to stave off and minimize the impact of the energy decent.

Eventually the various sticking plasters will collapse under the strain, then we will enter an acceptance phase. " energy " or lack off the cheap stuff will start to dominate peoples lives. Its going to get tough, its going to get bitchy but its going to happen.

Ill be retired by the time the cheap oil runs out and hobbling around in a crinkly night shirt emblazoned " i told you so "
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1 billion oil children in the west will have a very different view of life than what their parents did.

If you where born after 1990 you will live to see the biggest reversal in all human history !

Global car ownership post 2075 will be a tiny fraction of what it is now.

Is the world's oil running out fast? ....oil is not going off the agenda
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3777413.stm

Posted 4 months ago #
codesimian
Member

Recession? Bitcoin tripled in price over the last month and is still climbing.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts

As other economies go into recession, its the logical result. Bitcoin will stabilize the economy and cryptocurrencies in general will defeat the central banks at the same time. If they can't handle a global economy, the open source people will do it instead. Lots of money to be made if you invest now.

http://dwolla.com to transfer from your bank, takes a few days.

http://mtgox.com to receive the money from dwolla and send to your Bitcoin program.

That is the most common way to do it.

It fluctuates on an exponential scale, so don't give up if it appears to crash. It keeps coming back bigger.

What makes Bitcoin different than the economies that are supposedly going to have a 300 year recession is there will never be more than 21 million Bitcoins (currently trading at $6.25) and it slowly increases (based on who does the most useless calculations, called "proof of work" in the design document). There is an economy for doing these "useless calculations" so the cost of doing the calculations is approximately what they make from doing them. There is no theft system built into Bitcoin, like Federal Reserve Notes (dollars). Nobody can just create more Bitcoins except in that decentralized fair way. That's why when other economies go into recession, Bitcoin triples in value.

Posted 4 months ago #
asimov1
Member

when it comes to managing resources us human can be a bit dumb

Moa
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JF_hWMXPI5o

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moa

As a switching predator ( we can eat lots of stuff ) we tend to operate a policy of strength through exhaustion. The natives did probably try and preserve the Moa when it was in its last gasps but by then the population was probably to small to recover naturally anyway. The very isolation that allowed the Moa to thrive also meant the first humans to encounter them did little international / inter island trade. If the Moa was alive today it would be a prized item and fetch high prices on international markets. No doubt it would be farmed as much for novelty value as economic food value. Had we been a tad smarter there would also have been a dodo farm surviving to this date. The loss of the Moa i find particularly disappointing.

Business as usual will lead to a global Easter island scenario, we really do need to get a grip and restrain ourselves at an individual, local, national and global level or we will stave of the four riders for a generation by ripping the earth to shreds. This century could see us indulge in the greatest act of collective stupidity since writing began.

We have already done for countless species and ecosystems in the last century. If we screw things up this century on an industrial scale future generations from here to the sun stops shining will look back on us with utter contempt and scorn. Hungry sailors and enthusiastic natives can be forgiven somewhat BUT in the century of google, facebook,twitter, wikipedia and youtube ignorance has no place to run and hide.....our follies will be preserved in HD dolby stereo for countless millennia to come !

I don't want to see statues hydrocarbon man being pelted with tomatoes by school children from here to eternity as part of their compulsory education

If we don't not restrain ourselves then by 2112 your backyard, where ever that may be is going to look like this..and yes thats your great grandchild in the picture http://mirroreyes.wordpress.com/2010/02/28/stalking-vulture/ the only thing of abundance in this world is an abundance of vultures and rats...and there will be another 200 years of the same to follow after this !

IF we don't learn to restrain ourselves, nature will simply do it for us.
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The choice is simple bow before the vulture or bow before the Georgia Guidstones

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgia_Guidestones

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vulture

Pick a God !

Posted 4 months ago #
asimov1
Member

Cheap energy = freedom energy is the currency of the universe, energy really does = $s

That's why really understanding everything about energy is so important

Outline of energy
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outline_of_energy

energy
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy

The sun's energy on earth - Wonders of the Solar System - BBC
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c17t_Pf8vI4
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300 years ago those who could read and write had a voice and a passport to the truth , those who could , held sway

in this scientific day & age understanding energy is just as important as the ability to read & write and do maths

without that understanding of energy your as ignorant as an illiterate medieval peasant & your voice, though heard will count for little

Posted 3 months ago #
asimov1
Member

YOU ARE HERE: The Oil Journey (Narrated by Peter Coyote)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sv2MHEDlXlU&feature=relmfu

Posted 3 months ago #
Mnemomeme
Member

Also don't you think that governments would step in if the shit really started to hit the fan and start building nuclear power plants up the yin yang no matter what problems they have had?

Considering that a nuclear plant takes about 23 years to build, and has to be refuelled every six to nine months by engineers and specialists that can only spend five weeks inside the core, and then never enter one ever again.... no.

Posted 3 months ago #
richiemobile
Member

Truth.com is a hardware store in Owatonna, Minnesota.

https://www.truth.com/main/

Posted 3 months ago #
asimov1
Member

Govs are already gearing up , the west a bit slow. Chinas building coal plants like there's no tomorrow.

A big problem is this , cultural inertia and Govs and energy suppliers only really thinking a decade or so ahead. Its going to get pretty tight pretty fast. The next big oil scare will really get everyone thinking.

The massive industrialization of 3rd and 3nd world countries is progressing at a stupendous rate. If you though your neighbourhood was changing fast sons of bushmen and medieval style peasant farmers are lawyers, surgeons and computer programmers. They have jumped 150 years in just 30. This rapid development is bringing forward global peak everything early this century instead of mid next century.

If you triple world economic energy consumption then you cut reserve lifetimes by a factor of 3.....but the world population will grow by a 1/3rd within 50 years or so. Again this decimates reserves.

Maybe in 1950 at 1950s consumption rates America did have 150 years+ of coal left , but double the population and double the energy consumption and that 150 / 4 now = 38 years......2012 + 38 = 2050 = in the lifetime of many here.

Q you think the world is going to shut all its factories just so it can send coal to America ? .....nope, almost every country is going through an period expansion period of strength through exhaustion........this just brings forward the dates for various peaks, and brings forward the domino effect as one resource has to cover the shortfall in another.

Posted 3 months ago #
James Jaeger
Member

Asimov1, you didn't really address Ray's predictions about solar.

James

Posted 3 months ago #
asimov1
Member

I have here

http://www.kurzweilai.net/forums/topic/understand-the-energy-decent

Again its a case of knowing the science and the limits imposed upon us by the laws of physics. If you know your science then solar hype collapses like a pack of cards.

This is a fairly good summary two independent wise minds have done the science math and the societal math and arrived at similar conclusions. There can be no other if you do your sums right. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Long_Emergency
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IF people like yourself fail to grasp the reality and thus Governments cannot act because to do so would be against your understanding and wishes

THEN the population plummet will occur , out of 10 billion perhaps fewer than 500 million will survive and look out on a desolate earth

Right now we are heading full steam ahead for a Global Easter Island scenario, the time scale measured in decades not centuries
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if there was just 1 energy tech that would save us ( an energy tech as good as oil ), i would say so....even then the problems would only be delayed for a very short time....as we would have 10 billion + wanting to live like middle class Americans or better......we live on a finite sized earth....it takes energy and elbow room to do stuff. the price of energy STRONGLY dictates what is and isn't doable.
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I understand the frontier spirit......though several million American Indians would might have something to say.........but the frontier spirit of go forth and multiply can only be applied when you are standing in front of a vast empty plane of natural riches......space is beyond our reach.....we must constrain both our numbers and our ways on this finite earth until we can reach for the stars with the pre requisite strength .....a bar of competence and ability laid down by the laws of physics.

Boom and bust is part of nature....., peak oil, the energy descent , the population plummet all just par for the course.....but we have minds, minds that at times can overcome our natural instincts. Should we as a species heed the words on the Georogia Guidstones ( another wise mans words ) then not only will there be abundance for all on earth but the cosmos will be ours for the taking. At the very least a 1/4 of the milky way galaxy has our name on it, radio silence assures us this is most probably so. Only when we are masters of 100 worlds on a dozen systems can we as a species survive and sleep with confidence.

Im building a wisdom machine, my AI system. Its purpose is to guide man through his follies......500 million ants need a wise queen fit for purpose
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Is this the future you want ?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oani3-RDvHw

Posted 3 months ago #
asimov1
Member

First in a new series. Mark Carruthers uncovers the challenges facing recent graduates, students and young job seekers struggling to break into the world of work - and asks what impact the toughest economic situation in a generation will have on their futures.

The lost generation ( or he energy descent and you )
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b01bgqn3/Spotlight_Lost_Generation/

Posted 3 months ago #
eldras
Member

In a boom people think it's not going to stop.

In a recession people think it will always be like that!

Look the banks invented erivatives.

they tied themselves in knots with them and normally safe loans for mortgages suddenly went sour when car manufacturers shut off jobs in Detroit.

Foreclosures happened fast and people who thought they'd bought triple AAA loans hadn't.

It was immaturity.

Since then the banks have been pumping in money and strengthening and not lending much.

Their position is nearly rectified ie they are topped up.

There is a ground swell for mortgages and that will be unleashed into what may well be the boom that continues into the Singularity.

The UK needs 3 million homes in the south east alone.

there's blood on the carpet and now is the time to but banks.

Lloyds has risen 75% in a few weeks already (23p to 35p-).

Posted 3 months ago #
asimov1
Member

Overfishing 'costs EU £2.7bn each year'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-16979976

"Overfishing is bad for the economy," said report author Rupert Crilly, environmental economics researcher for the foundation's Ocean2012 initiative.

over fishing lowers the carrying capacity of the oceans....at least from a fisherman's point of view, fish stocks can collapse to a point that the ecosystem finds a NEW balance point, one that may exclude the fish we fish for, thats just one many kinds of desertification

strength through exhaustion has its limits too !...and we are hitting them

Posted 3 months ago #
asimov1
Member

Understanding the global crisis
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special_reports/global_economy/

One of the key problems is the high price of energy, when energy is cheap and abundant one gets a higher rate of return from mechanical & electrical machines. Food production is cheaper and easier too.

Energy is the life blood of the global economy and indeed biological systems. This is why the general state of the global economy depends on the availability & price of energy.

Right now energy supply is below where we would like it ( kw per capita etc )

Right now the price of energy is on the high side

These two factors make recovery slow and tedious. Its difficult to invest large amounts when the returns are low and slow incoming. This too dampens ability to re align economies and societies. This impacts global systems, national systems , companies , house holds and individuals.

Posted 3 months ago #
{i}Pan~
Member

Scarcity is a lie. There is no energy descent.

Posted 3 months ago #
asimov1
Member

The UK has signed a deal with France to strengthen co-operation in the development of civil nuclear energy.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17069455

The US may think about nuclear but will pobably just lean on its coal reserves that much harder instead.
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These are delaying tactics to try and stave off the energy descent in the short term but the pressure is slowly building
http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

Posted 3 months ago #
asimov1
Member

34 minutes ago a youtuber posted this comment

Wow in 80 years this world will be packed to the brim, little to none fossil fuels will be left, alot of farming ground will be used for homes for the excess amount of people on planet, everything will go to hell in a handbag....wow humanity, i hope your proud of yourself amd how you have created your own death sentence of a slow painful way for everyone to hate life in the next century. Were fucked and im glad im going to die before the shit hits the fan (.yayaya1193able 34 minutes ago)

after watching this video

Is the world finally waking up ?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cJ-J91SwP8w&feature=relmfu

Posted 2 months ago #
asimov1
Member

I think by now some of you are beginning to realize that there a indeed darkstorms on the horizon.....storms that wont blow over quickly

Oil Peak 2011 - part 1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KWh85pJlB-U&feature=related

Oil Peak 2011 - part 2
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4OfS8IKegX4&feature=relmfu

Peak Oil - part 3
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQtzt-emRJI&feature=channel&list=UL

Peak Oil - part 4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eeDF8b1PMWQ&feature=channel&list=UL

after the initial dilly dallying by lightweight idealistic politicians, societies all over the globe will be forced to reshape and perhaps re size themselve

expect massive shifts in socioeconomic outlooks to percolate and rise.....even population control may get a headline or three from newspapers of a conservative or optimistic leaning.
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few realize that this is the beginning of the end of hydro carbon man, fewer still can contemplate the depth and breath of the fall....but fall we must, the cumulative changes taking many decades but the direction always the same.

Posted 1 month ago #
{i}Pan~
Member

There is no energy descent.

Scarcity is a lie.

Posted 1 month ago #
BlueLoaf
Member

Asimov, I find your energy descent scenario unrealistic, but if it did happen, how about voluntary plastination? When people realize that mind uploading technology will become available, and accept that, it would lead to a dilemma:

1. Live in an energy-starved, depressed economy for 60 more years and then get plastinated
2. Get plastinated immediately and get resurrected later

Both scenarios end up with the person being resurrected in the future, but there would be less suffering in the second scenario.

Posted 1 month ago #
asimov1
Member

@ Blueloaf

Its not a scenario, its a reality you are living through

....in a nutshell its a global reversal of fortune, a fortune of wealth and happiness brought about by cheap energy

...you stand at the crest of a hill, the slope ahead downwards, at first gentle, almost imperceptible descent but with the passing of each and every year the slope steepens.

there are no 'get out of jail cards' , no magic wand of tech will alter things....there is only a blindness, a blindness brought about by 300 years of fossil powered boom
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Blueloaf , you have to ask yourself why so many of the Peak Oil videos i post have enormous green bars, and countless comments along the lines of ' damn we really are screwed' and ' why do politicians and the media not take this issue seriously'

The most important 6 minutes of your life
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EQqDS9wGsxQ

I haven't made an error in my calculations , or over looked something that would change the future reality. I have no interest in politics, no axe to grind or biased opinion i wish to put forward. Im just telling you like it is..........and its not good news....the fact that its undeniably & catastrophically bad news compels me to inform others. If i were just a blip on the radar, even a huge blip i could sleep well at night. Quite frankly comments like ' your scenario seems unrealistic ' scare the pants of me....i can see how if you were not looking at this issue with a critical eye how you can be dismissive, but thats the problem Blueloaf, its not just you, its tens of thousands of leaders, managers and administrators across the globe who get paid to 'see the light' and quite simply are not doing what they are paid to do.

Scientists do science...they are the first to spot 'land' , fresh new pastures....they are also first to spot icebergs. Whereas politicans pander to the money men and joe public....neither of those groups spend their weekends iceberg spotting.
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If i recall correctly you are a database programmer, or have similar skillets. I suggest you write some code, factor in current and future population, current and future oil/energy production and consumption and see if you can convince the rest of the world that the end of oil is not circa 2040ad

Even the figures on this world resource clock are somewhat optimistic. http://www.worldometers.info/

Why, well they dont compute the domino effect that occurs when oil production collapses and gas and coal have to take up the strain. If you are a programmer you can do basic maths.....I NEED ONLY point you in the direction of the figures and you yourself can work out the outcomes with very little effort. From your reply it sounds like you simply have not 'run the numbers' ....and those numbers dont lie.

Here is the issue, becuase i have sat down and worked it all out AND examined all the implications in detail my 'scenario' as you wish to call it seems a long way of your current mental model of the world. aka that dont compute aka must be huge errors somewhere surley....there is nothing wrong with thinking that way but i can assure you as you start to do the sums yourself i start to sound a little less crazy at each and every step of the way.......if your maths is good you will quickly get to the 'hmmm stage'....i can see why thee are concerns but.....and then you dig a little deeper and quickly find we are indeed on an escalator to social and economic hell.
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Truth be told when i first did the calculations way back i came out with 2075 as the year things get tight...um, i kinda underestimated many factors , not by much but enough.....enough t bring that date forward by a a couple of decades and into my lifetime. > Factors like the world pop doubling between now and then + mass industrialization of 2nd and 3rd world countries. Events which had not yet happened so where part of my upper bound. <

For the past 10 years, thanks to the internet i have unfettered access to mankind's knowledge. I am able to make calculations with high enough precision to be sure im sure of x,y,z ....and that means that the deeper impacts of energy decent is coming much sooner rather than much later....in fact that first big wave hit us in the 1990's , it was just a decade of global overspend and the emptying of all significant societal reserves that obfuscated the fact. Today only dinkies ( double income no kids) or those with an inheritance are having an easy ride 1970s stylee.....back then you only needed 1 good breadwinner......now you need two....another little change that has no doubt crept up on you unnoticed.

I hope that by the depth & breadth of my reply you can see past the initial ' do what...you cant be serious here' and investigate things a little deeper yourself. You may still come to the conclusion im just painting a worst case scenario if only to highly light the fact that we do indeed have some kind of significant problem etc......trust me, you do not want to read my worst case scenario, it makes my 300 years of never ending recession sound like a scouting holiday. But my worst case scenario is not likely to come to pass i saw little value in posting it......i m pretty sure that as we start to bite the bullet we will start to wake up to reality faster than you yourself care to imagine.

Posted 1 month ago #
grettir76
Member

Something to think about

http://nextbigfuture.com/2012/04/brillouin-had-los-alamos-and-sri.html

And the interview with the creators

http://www.mevio.com/episode/313695/fen.120417

Posted 4 weeks ago #
asimov1
Member

....well im sure we will all be saved and showered in abundance when 'scientists' invent a magic wand

how about that ?

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alternatively you can always get a 'real education ' that will help you deal with the ' facts of life '

Posted 3 weeks ago #
grettir76
Member

....well im sure we will all be saved and showered in abundance when 'scientists' invent a magic wand

how about that ?

I have no illiusions about a magic wand that will save everyone, but there are hints of automation coming in that will undeniable hit about every sector of the job market. The reason I placed that link was for you to look at and give input on it, is what they are talking about feasible or scam? There seems to be a lot of interest in cold fusion these days and this particular project looks very interesting.

alternatively you can always get a 'real education ' that will help you deal with the ' facts of life '

If that was pointed at me then its unjustified, I have both eduction/experience in steelworking/mechanics and am finishing my Computer Science degree next fall.

Posted 3 weeks ago #
Jeff37
Member

I believe we are at the doorstep from insane exponential growth in abundance. And most of these things arent enegry producing things

1 Your energy numbers you keep reporting, are not going to mean all that much, most of it will be wasted energy( for the US and other developed countries)

2. self driving cars. Only need 5% of todays car levels to sastify everyones needs. Imagine all those plants stoping production.................... delivery trucks. no more driving to pick up some item, when it can be delivered in an effiecent route, not wasting energy. No more traffic

3. robotics.

4. telecomuting

5. 3d printing. either in your home or city. fewer wasted long haul trucks.

6 smart electronics working with a smart grid.

7 the sharing economy ( like redbox or netflix with many other things like boats, tractors, toys, tools.........)

8 Email in a few years everyone will use it bye bye postoffice, and many others

I havent even mentioned growth in renewable energy, and other forms of energy.

all this tech will lower the energy usage per capita, but it ill also make a lot of unemployed people. My view is we should go back to our agrarian roots on small and medium farms. The US in 1912 80% of employees were farmers now that number is down to 2%. We have gotten really good ( effiecent) at making horrible food and sickening our society. Our country is paying for this cheap food in the form of health care. This could also bring back stronger communities. And other benefits.
We were not created to eat a twinkie that is 10 years old. Some of you might say evolved.

9 lessen the drain in healthcare. with tech and better food.

I realize that once humanoid and other robots are equal to or less than that of cars (cost) today, we will all be living like the fatties on Wall-e.

Posted 3 weeks ago #
asimov1
Member

I dont like being right when its bad news but its official UK has slipped back into recession

while there is still growth in some nations this too is slowing down, the energy descent starts off very slow

There are many belt tightening exercises still to be deployed , many efficiencies and over the top luxuries to be trimmed from the socioeconomic system, in short we will live simpler less extravagant lives.

people will swap car ownership and expensive overseas holidays for smartphones and other information/media technologies

Posted 3 weeks ago #
grettir76
Member

On a bright note, the UK is thinking ahead with the Euro power grid.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/apr/11/iceland-volcano-green-power?INTCMP=SRCH

Posted 3 weeks ago #
asimov1
Member

Closer sharing of resources is essential to staving off the worst effects

If you have good relations with your neighbors then you can share....if relations are sour then conflict / blackmail usually results

If you cant win resources by force of arms then you need to gain access via cooperation.....war and conflict is very counterproductive for modern societies, like a glass house the systems they comprise of are easily broken.
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Its going to result in a political battle between the extreme right nationalist and the extreme left socialists......poverty is relative so in less humanly governed countries its usually just one ethnic/religious/cultural group that help themselves to a bit extra...keeps them happy as poverty is relative....if you are 30% richer than the other groups nearby you dont tend to grumble even if its a bowl of rice with 30% extra

One can argue that politics is just the art of distributing resources

Posted 3 weeks ago #