We have gone over this subject of the Fermi Paradox and the Drake Equation here at the MIND-X for over a decade . . .
. . . and I'm glad we continue to discuss this most fascinating subject . . .
My CURRENT "conclusion" with regards to the EMPIRICAL Fermi Paradox and the THEORETICAL Drake Equation is that there may be other extraterrestrial technological civilizations in the Milky Way -- at this time -- but they are probably at about our level of development: pre-Singularity, Type I Civilization.
If the Galaxy is isotropic and homogeneous -- and all indication is that it is -- then we could say it not only has the same "weather," but the same "climate" through out. If the climate is the same throughout, then Life will bloom throughout, simultaneously. All the lilies of the field bloom at about the same time.
Thus, the reason for the Fermi Paradox is simple: any other extraterrestrial civilizations in the Galaxy are just as able to communicate with us as we are able to communicate with them. Since we are NOT able to communicate with them, they are probably not able to communicate with us. Yet.
It's safe to assume there are somewhere between zero and an infinite number of extraterrestrial civilizations in the Milky Way Galaxy. But whether this number is zero or tends towards an infinite number depends on how many factors in the Drake Equation.
If the Drake has only one factor, then the number of technological civilizations will tend to be infinite. If the Drake has an infinite number of factors, then the number of technological civilizations will tend to be zero.
So that's the calculitic range.
My understanding is, the original Drake Equation had seven factors as follows: the average annual rate of star formation in the galaxy, the fraction of those stars that have planets, the number those planets that can develop viable biospheres, the number of biospheres that actually do develop life, the fraction of that life that develops intelligence, the fraction of the intelligence that develops technology sufficient to communicate, the duration of that technological civilization.
Since other factors have recently been postulated -- such as each extra-solar planet must have an iron core so a magnetic field can develop to shield its biosphere from stellar radiation; and each must have a moon to stabilize its orbit and a moon as large as our Moon to perfectly eclipse the host-star -- these push the number of potential technological civilizations down towards zero.
Given this, I have thus come to the conclusion that each galaxy probably has only one (1) technological civilization. Kind of like there is usually only one pearl per oyster.
Even so, the Universe collectively has potentially billions and billions of technological civilizations.
And this would make sense, because, if each civilization in each galaxy eventually arrives at a Singularity -- this writer defining it as the point whereby the dominant species of a world evolves its technological nexus -- that civilization will immediately have the power to dominate quite a large volume of space. Since life seems to COMPETE with itself until it learns to COOPERATE, I would expect that a post-Singularity civilization would be no different.
If so, the Universe -- in order to survive itself -- would never place two post-Singularity civilizations in close proximity, because their competition would result in an inhalation of each other within a few thousand years. The Universe would SPACE out all post-Singularity civilizations by making them extra-galactic. This is the reason each galaxy probably only has one (1) technological civilization -- because two or more would mean total destruction, and this pattern repeated throughout the Universe would eventually mean the inhalation of ALL technologically intelligent life, pre- and post-Singularity.
So, the Universe -- in its quest to survive -- will space out post-Singularity civilizations at galactic distances because the distances are immense enough to ensure it will take a certain amount of time before even a post-Singularity civilization will be able to communicate, let alone travel to its nearest neighbor. Over this duration, the post-Singularity civilization will mature enough to replace its tendency for COMPETITION with a tendency for COOPERATION.
If this sounds far-fetched, consider this: what did the entire world do right after it received the technological gift of the industrial revolution? It had not one World War, but two World Wars -- both wars where the entire world, especially certain countries, were vying for world domination BY MEANS OF THE NEW SMOKE- STACK TECHNOLOGIES.
If this is the kind of chaos that will happen on just one small world when its civilization gets some SMOKE-STACK technology, imagine what a GALACTIC civilization would do when it gets POST-SINGULARITY technologies.
So, the Universe isn't stupid. It knows it's gotta keep the boys separated until they are mature enough that they don't kill each other.
And it's as simple as that. We as a world WILL have our Singularity. We are probably IT for this particular galaxy. And we WILL meet up with others . . . when we are ready to do so without destroying the entire Universe.
James Jaeger
(1) The reason I say the EMPIRICAL Fermi Paradox and the THEORETICAL Drake Equation is because we can see from experience that no technological civilizations have (yet) been detected. Despite the claims of so-called UFO experts -- and there are now hundreds, if not thouands of these worldwide -- I have seen no science-grade evidence of any extraterrestrial intelligent life visiting Earth. As the late Carl Sagan used to say:"Extrodinary claims require extrodinary evidence." I have seen no extrodinary evidence that would validate "UFOs" as extraterrestrial technological devices or species. Given this, I would still not say that it's impossible that extraterrestrial beings are here or have visited Earth in the past. It's entirely possible they have indeed visited, but I would put such visits in the distant past, as we have never seen any forensic evidence of their existence.
