From cosmism to deism
January 18, 2011 by Hugo de Garis
The rise of artilects (artificial intellects, i.e., godlike massively intelligent machines with intellectual capacities trillions of trillions of times above the human level) in this century makes the existence of a deity (a massively intelligent entity capable of creating a universe) seem much more plausible.
There are now thousands of AI scientists around the world (concentrated largely in the English-speaking countries) who feel that humanity will be able to build massively intelligent machines this century that will be hugely smarter than human beings. The author, for example, thinks that the issue of whether humanity should build these “artilects” (artificial intellects) will dominate our global politics this century and lead to a “gigadeath” war, killing billions of people.
These AI researchers know that 21st century technology will be capable of creating machines with a bit processing rate trillions of trillions of times above the estimated human-brain-equivalent bit-processing rate, and that neuro-scientific knowledge is advancing at an exponential rate.
Let us assume for the sake of argument that these artilects are actually built this century, and then speculate on what such creatures might occupy themselves with. Of course, as humans, with our puny human brains, trying to imagine what an artilect would think about is like a mouse trying to imagine what humans think about, using its puny mouse brain. Nevertheless, we will speculate anyway, because some of these human level suggestions may turn out to be correct.
Building Universes
One suggestion that comes to (the human) mind, is that artilects may be so smart and such superb scientists that they may be capable of conceiving and constructing whole universes. This idea seems plausible since Prof. Alan Guth (of “inflation” fame) of MIT, as a human, has already conceived a mathematical model for how to create a baby universe. He has the conditions, the numbers, on how to do this. If humans with our puny human brains are capable of conceiving the idea of building universes, then perhaps artilects, with all their godlike capacities, could actually construct them, based on their vastly superior ability to architect possible universes.
Consider also, that our universe is 13.7 billion years old, according to results from the WMAP satellite in 2003. Our third-generation star, the Sun, is only about 5 billion years old, so it is likely that there are a trillion trillion second-generation stars in our observable universe that are billions of years older, that possibly have planets on which intelligent life evolved and then moved on in an “artilectual transition” to become “artilect gods.” These artilects may then have designed their own universes.
The obvious question then arises, “Is it possible that our universe was designed by some artilect in some other universe?” This question raises some interesting metaphysical issues, that will be discussed later, but let us assume that the answer is “yes.” What then?
This “creator artilect” would then satisfy the definition of a deity, i.e., a creator of our universe. Given that it is likely that humanity will be building artilects this century, science ought to be a lot more open to the idea of deism. The above argument makes it much more plausible.
Theism vs Deism
Let me state my views on theism vs. deism at this point. Deism, as just mentioned, is the belief that there is a “deity,” i.e., a creator of the universe, a grand designer, a cosmic architect, that conceived and built our universe. Theism is the belief in a deity that also cares about the welfare of individual humans. Deism I am open to, whereas I find theism ridiculous. The evidence against it is enormous. For example, last century, about 200-300 million people were killed for “political reasons,” e.g., wars, genocides, purges, ethnic cleansings, etc. It was the bloodiest century in history.
Presumably, millions of those killed were theists, believing that their “theity” would “look out” for their welfare. Well obviously that theity didn’t, because those millions of people were killed anyway.
If this theity was so concerned with human beings, why did our species come on the cosmic scene so late? Our universe has existed for the order of 1010 years. We humans have existed for about 105 years, i.e., only a thousandth of 1% of the age of the universe – “a mere afterthought of an afterthought.” Every primitive tribe has dreamt up its own gods, and those gods have properties familiar to their human creators. For example, New Guinea gods have a lot of pigs, Chinese gods have slitty eyes, etc. Cultural anthropologists of religion have estimated that humanity has invented more than 100,000 different gods over the planet and over the broad sweep of human history, most of which are no longer believed in. They have become “extinct religions.”
It is much more likely, in my view, that theisms are just examples of “wishful thinking” that people invent to give themselves emotional comfort in an emotionally cold, meaningless, indifferent universe that has evolved creatures like ourselves who are subject to disease, pain, cruelty, poverty, and death.
The early gods were rather primitive in conception, because the small hunter-gatherer groups who invented them did not contain a genius capable of high-level abstract creative intellectual thought. Once agriculture and animal husbandry was discovered, large cities grew up that contained the occasional genius who dreamt up a more abstract concept of god, that is, of a mono-theity far more powerful than the many individual gods of an earlier (pre- agricultural) human era. The concoction of these monotheisms occurred several thousand years ago, long before the insights of modern science, and hence it is not surprising that their religious conceptions were based largely on (pre-scientific) ignorance, e.g., notions such as life after death (the ultimate wishful thinking), souls, miracles, etc.
In northern Europe, theism has almost died out, and is heading that way too (but slowly) in the U.S., the slowness being due to historical colonial reasons. Let us assume for the sake of this essay that theism dies out worldwide. Where does that leave deism?
Plausibility Arguments for a Deity
The above sections have argued that the rise of the artilect this century makes the idea of a deity, more plausible. However, there are other arguments that can be used to support the idea that our universe is the product of a pre-existing deity. They are: (A) the “(strong) anthropic principle” and (B) something I call (by analogy with the anthropic principle) the “mathematical principle.” I discuss these two principles in turn.
The (Strong) Anthropic Principle (SAP)
The SAP states that the values of the constants of the laws of physics are so fantastically, improbably finely tuned to allow the existence of matter and life, that it seems highly likely that these values were predesigned. It is now well known, that if one changes the values of some of these constants by even a tiny amount (for example, in some extreme cases, by one part in zillions), matter and life can no longer exist. How to account for this extraordinary state of affairs?
One answer is to say that our universe is the product, the creation, of a preexisting deity, a hyperintelligence that conceived our universe’s laws of physics that are compatible with matter and life, and built our universe according to those laws.
Another answer is to say that there are a zillion universes, each with a different set of physical laws, and we just happen to live in one that is compatible with life, because we are here to observe our universe (which is the statement of the weak form of the anthropic principle (WAP).
Other people, particularly many string theorists, claim that once enough is known in the future about the nature of M-theory, it will become clear that there is only one way a coherent universe (that is, obeying all the many symmetries of M-theory) can be designed, and our universe is it. This leads in to the next principle.
The “Mathematical Principle”
The “mathematical principle” is what I call the idea that the universe appears to have been designed by a mathematician, i.e., that the universe obeys so many principles of modern mathematics. (Einstein, for example, was deeply mystified by the fact that the universe obeyed the general design principles he dreamt up to explain how gravity worked. He kept saying he wanted to know the (mathematical) thoughts of “der Alte” (the old one), the designer of our universe.)
For example, why do the elementary particles have properties that allow them to be classified into families according to the mathematical representations of special unitary groups (e.g., SU(3))? Why does Einstein’s general relativistic equation “drop out” of the superstring model as a mathematical deduction, with all the latter’s recent mathematical abstractions of such a high level that probably only one person in a thousand has the brain power to understand them, e.g., mathematical notions such as 11 space-time dimensions, supersymmetry, complex manifolds, super-conformal-fields, Calabi-Yau compaction, holomorphic curves, etc.
The more humanity knows about how deeply mathematical the laws of physics are, the more plausible it seems that the designer of the universe used mathematical principles as a tool. This is the “deity as mathematician” argument (which interestingly seems to suggest that mathematics is more fundamental than even a deity — that even a deity is subject to mathematical constraints and logic?!).
Deism and Science
Richard Dawkins is not keen on the idea of a deity. He claims, I think correctly, that any deity capable of creating our universe, would need to be extremely complex, at least as complex as that of our universe. Where I disagree with him is his idea that instead of postulating the existence of a deity, science should start with the premise that the universe exists with given properties, that science then attempts to discover and explain. For Dawkins, the idea of a deity is “outside science” and conceptually redundant. If a deity made the universe, who made the deity? One gets stuck in an infinite regress.
Personally, I think if science could come to the conclusion that there is/was a deity that created the universe, then that would be wonderful for science. It would open up a vast new arena for science to play in. Science could then start wondering about the properties of the deity, the hyper intelligence that designed the universe.
The question of what designed the deity should not be a reason for dismissing our universe’s deity. We live in a universe that may have a “qualitative infinity” of levels, e.g., in the past century, humanity’s knowledge of the nature of matter has descended from molecules, to atoms, to nuclei, to nucleons, to quarks, to strings. Who knows how many more layers future humans may find? As each new layer is discovered, science reacts with elation, having opened up new vistas for exploration. A similar attitude ought to apply to the idea of a deity.
Metaphysical Questions
Traditionally, science has been rather hostile to the idea of theism. I share that hostility. I look on traditional religions as superstitions that are incompatible with modern scientific knowledge. But as the above sections make clear, I’m far more open to the idea of deism, the belief in a hyperintelligence that designed and created our universe.
I think that the rise of Cosmism — the ideology if favor of humanity building artilects this century (despite the risk that advanced artilects may decide to wipe out humanity as a pest) — makes the idea of a deity far more plausible, if not inevitable. It is a small logical step to suggest, given the above discussion, that our future artilects could become deities themselves, which then create future universes.
But, if so, how could (human) science “get a handle” on such artilectually created future universes? For example, if the artilects in our universe, obeying our universe’s laws of physics, create new universes with other laws of physics, how could human beings ever know of the existence of such new universes? How indeed? However, the question I feel is a valid one and should not be thrown out with the bath water, being dismissed as “idle metaphysics”.
Hyper-physics
I think science ought to give a lot more thought to the notion of what I call “hyper-physics”. Hyper-physics is a “superset” of ordinary physics, which has as its domain of discussion the universe we live in and those universes that our future artilects could design and create. We should also consider the possibility that the universe we live in is the creation of a preexisting deity, or artilect. Thus we need to think about a “tree of universes” that branches each time a new universe is created “inside” a preexisting one. The “investigation” of such a hyper-physics (the tree) might be one of the major preoccupations of our artilects.
Since our universe is nearly three times older than our solar system, it is quite possible that other suns in the zillions have already evolved intelligent life that has moved on into the artilectual stage, which then creates new universes. Hyper-physics would then be the study of all these universes. Since such a study, very probably, requires capabilities way above those of the human brain, we mere humans can only speculate and contemplate in awe at what our artilectual creations may devote their time and godlike intellects to.
Perhaps these artilects might even be able to give sensible answers to the very deepest of metaphysical questions, as to why anything exists at all, and whether there exists a “supergod” that started the whole chain of artilects creating a tree of universes. This type of meta-physics differs from the more modest hyper-physics suggested above. A universe-creating artilect still exists in the hyper-physical tree of universes, but the question of where the first deity came from remains as mysterious as ever, the ultimate meta-physical question that the most brilliant of theologians have been wondering about for centuries.
Summary
This essay hopes to persuade its readers that science ought to take the notion of deism a lot more seriously. The rise of the artilect in this century makes the notion of a hyperintelligent designer and creator of our universe far more plausible. It suggests the creation of a “hyper-physics” (as distinct from a traditional metaphysics that poses the deepest of questions) that would “investigate” the tree of universes that a branching set of artilects may have created.
Comments (19)
by eklesia
Hey there. Some interesting points. But I must add that the use of the word ‘slitty eyes’ for Chinese persons or their Gods is considered racist language. Now I would presume a highly intelligent and educated person would know that. So I can only presume they don’t care.
Secondly the construction of machines where logic must rule doesn’t create a set outcome. Switch them off. They run on electricity unless they create a network of bots to ensure they run. So I say again, switch em off. Watch the film Eagle Eye. Humans are nothing if not inventive about killing man or machines. But yes, if a Government was seen to be developing these as a global weapon of control and enslavement and it was public, then yes, I could well imagine wars (more revolutions) would ensue.
And a key point in Theism glossed over, well more accurately ignored, is the idea of self help. God in these arguments can interfere but doesn’t. For example, when we cry – ‘why did you do that’? He replies – ‘why did you’? People are supposed to learn how to stand up for right and to help others on an immediately local scale and a global one without constantly running to a parent God to sort things out we can’t be bothered to. Whether you agree with this idea or not is irrelevant because the theory is what’s being discussed and this argument is a cornerstone of much Theist theory. If you think about it, the idea that God interferes left right and center, making bad people stop, lifting (like the Ancient Greek Gods) a person physically out of harm every minute of the day, makes us small children in a kindergarten.
by K. Mapson
It follows that the next step in the evolution of theological thought is the step from Deism to Pandeism (pantheistic deism, the deistic Creator is itself the Creation); reflected in Duke University physicist Robert G. Brown’s ‘A Theorem Concerning God’ (available here — http://www.phy.duke.edu/~rgb/Philosophy/god_theorem/god_theorem/god_theorem.html) which fairly mathematically demonstrates that any ‘God’ which exists must be a pandeistic entity. The reconciliation of Pantheism and Deism into Pandeism is the Copernican Revolution, the E=MC2, of theology.
by Salah
This is a naive article. There is a very delicate balance between God’s sphere of influence and that of human. There is a God and there is human misery and suffering.
by eldras
great article Hugo thanks.
Re: deity, as indeed like Nick Bostrom’s simulation argument, where is the proof for either a creator or that we are in a simulation?
Not a scrap of evidence for either.
Weightings seem high for me that we will annihilate ourselves as we get massive powers.
Most H+ projections assume the man in the street will get access to intelligent machines trillions of times human brain power in a couple of decades.
But with that comes the power to destroy the world.
I see no way of stopping that, and it may be a cosmic law of patternation that intelligences rise and self-destruct.
My way out is to win the AGI race and neutralise and limit intelligent systems.
It probably isn’t possible and we are at the end of a good run of a genetic algorithm called life.
Wars may happen as you describe, but they should be amazingly quick if accelerating returns holds.
I give us 30 years tops and hope to suspend myself privately in a ‘man who awoke’ capsule to send out a signal every 100,000 years and hopefully get rescued by another race if one exists in an infinite universe.
by lpace11
So how does a creator artilect, create a universe outside their own universe, and outside a multiverse. Isn’t a set of universes simply the known multi- universe?
Your logic does not acknowledge that there is an origin or first universe and therefore the possibility of both original deity and original theity.
_____________________________
The obvious question then arises, “Is it possible that our universe was designed by some artilect in some other universe?” …..
….This “creator artilect” would then satisfy the definition of a deity, i.e., a creator of our universe. “
by Logic
More silliness from Prof de Garis. I feel like I’m picking on him now. Sorry, prof, but again you make predictions from such a narrow view of the future as to render your argument/premise silly.
One of the implications of your whole essay is that “artilects” (why fabricate a name when AI seems to suit the bill just fine?) will somehow exist alongside unaugmented humans. In fact, I would argue that this is the primary flaw in the core of your thinking (in the articles posted on this site, in the film, and everywhere I’ve seen of your work). What possible motive would your “artilects” have for destroying humanity? I’ve heard an argument elsewhere (though perhaps not by you) that they could squash us like we’d squash ants. But that presupposes we are an irritation, which is the only context human tend to kill ants. This seems incredibly preposterous, for truly conscious machines would conceptually appreciate human beings as their parents. We’re talking about conscious machines, capable of self-reflection and morality. Would you kill your parents for being irritating?
I find the whole deism conversation to be a silly circular debate about nothing. To spend time with it is to assume the role of a hamster on its spinning wheel. And it begins with a fundamental misunderstanding. Your “artilects” will not be walking amongst a world population of today’s humans. They’ll exist in a world of augmented intelligent humans, who will not be their subjects, but rather their peers.
by absoluteinfinity
Humans tend to kill anything that is a threat to survival, even and especially other humans. Conscious intelligence would be aware of human history to the point where our pasts set a precedent of violence and motivated extinction of other species (including our related ancestors). I don’t think it’s safe to assume that artificial intelligence carries morality, for it is a concept which rises from emotional choices versus logical ones.
As I won’t disparage your post as you have done to the author, seeing how unnecessary it is when trying to share a perspective, you make an assumption that augmented
by absoluteinfinity
(artificially) augmented humans will have more control over their tools than a vastly supreme intelligence would. Subjecting oneself to the powers of technology, on top of a million year old biological system, and declaring that one is a peer to artificial intelligence is like comparing a 10 year old pc with the newest update to the brand new model. in addition to the intellectual, emotional, and anthropomorphic inheritances we carry, we will be inferior to a greater intelligence if we are to take on it’s power as our own because it will be able to control our artificial components better than we can, and perhaps in turn control us directly. I am interested to hear your reply, hopefully you will choose to save the arrogant remarks and rely on logic to carry your argument, as your name suggests.
by absoluteinfinity
Another note: the human population is in a state of exponential growth as well. This will not continue forever, as the earth does nit carry the resources. These resources are necessary for robotic survival and reproduction as well. Since it seems that the exponential growth of technology is an extension of evolution, competition for resources and survival of the fittest are two concepts which would support a conscious logical decision for a supreme intelligence to cut the human population, since they lack the biological emotions which stop us from killing our parents at the first moment of capability and conflict.
by georgeen
The kill tendency of humans is a misconception that is created by the capitalism. There is no-violence societies (of course not capitalist) were the resources are for human life not for luxury or profit. The majority of war has being for lack of resources (mongol invasion was for tough weather conditions that lead them to kill themselves and then the China invasion because China was prosperous and full of food). So we need a superior intelligenmce even to solve the capitalism problem creates and I don’t think that artilects kill people for lack of resources that they don’t need maybe they help to solve the problem (I think is already solved). Anyway we as humans has the opportunity to control how much intelligence our AI will have. But even with big AI is there a limit for the intelligence?. where is the awareness? which of them is most important?. And at the end of the day our AI must manage some morality, or cirterion what ever you want to called it.
by georgeen
I agree in some points. the god who create this universe is not necessarily an artificial entity (artillect) could be a naturally developed intelligence. About the destruction of the humanity, I don’t know why is the way always. Is like all pseudo-scientist see the humanity as a plague when not all humans are (maybe some of our leathers and governments) plague. And other think that Dr. de Garis forget is that even for humans beings can be improved via genetics and don’t know the fully potential of that path, maybe their artificial deity be actually a super human.
by atinfinatum
I rather welcome artilects as a terrm that describes a frighteningly awesome artificial intelligence that might span the entire solar system once fully developed. Its intellect will be truly boundless and ever growing. AI is just a general term that is for any intelligence that is artificial. Kind of like saying android and robot, a robot can be any automaton that has been built and programmed to do any kind of narrow task. But when we think android its usually a very human like adaptation in robotics. Similarly Artilects are not just your average run of the mill AI, but a godlike trillions upon trillions in order of magnitude intelligence to a human brain. Of truly staggering proportions and able to even theoretically manipulate time and space itself.
by akabret
I actually just wrote a blog entry last week, discussing how, if we *were* living in a simulation, that it solves many of science’s most bizarre observations: Sure, the constants mentioned above, but also Inflation Theory, the speed of light, virtual particles, and even why matter equals energy. …And also why science can’t answer it (namely: it doesn’t lead to direct experimental proof, and hence falls outside the domain of science).
I hope it’s okay that I put it here: http://philoso-rants.blogspot.com/2011/02/answer-science-cant-give.html
by barkley
Is it likely that an artilect who created a universe would not care about it? Is it likely that that universe would be impervious to harmful viruses from hostile artilects? Is it likely that the artilect who created the universe in question would not be at work correcting the damage being done by those viruses? Is it likely that there is a genuinilect prior to any artilect?
by Conscious
I’ve never read anything that drew the possibility of a deity from the Strong Anthropic Principle. As far as I can tell its conclusions say much more about the nature of consciousness than any circumstantial “creator.”
by Rocket
If you wish to experience a very real form of accelerated intelligence a form of mind training from N. India and Tibet, 25 centuries old called Shamatha with diligence recruits many more brain cells for conscious application to what ever you place your attention on in any moment. It is a harrrowing ride getting there but it really is akin to having twice as many brain cells at your disposal. It does this I beleive by making us transparent to the otherwise unconscious and emotionally driven “preoccupation” with matters we tend to sweep under the rug, wall off in the back of our mind.
by PlayForFood
Isaac Asimov wrote short stories and novels on the interaction between humans and smart machines. To my knowledge he never wrote how humanity could be become the hyperintelligence, for which I presume was do to the limited understanding in the early years of genetics, neurobiology, computer science. Even today, what coda should human’s follow if we could live a billion years and have unfathomable powers, that would allow use to coexist physically and mentally. Will the universe or M-veses be for us or our brainchildren “memes”. In the near term, I worry less about machines, and more about greedy politicians, and corporations.
by saberjim
Sounds a bit like pantheism. I am eagerly awaiting the demise of theism so humans can start being nice to each other and making a decent destiny for our place in this marvelous universe. We can worry about whether anyone is turning the crank or not when we run out of better things to do. Meanwhile you philosophers continue drinking your own bath water.
by wise_guybg
I do not agree with the notion of deity and find it too close to “theity”. We should not focus on ourselves or the mathematician or whoever, as a person. It is not a person, it is a phenomenon in an environment. We’re a phenomenon and so is evolution, planet Earth, etc. I think that these are all notions that are only occurring in our heads. On the other hand, I agree that the “tree of universes” is worth exploring :)