Industry Says Limits on Moore’s Law Far Off
March 19, 2002 | Source: EE Times
Limits predicted by Moore’s Law won’t be reached until after 2028, according to a semiconductor industry leader.
Calvin Chenming Hu, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation’s Chief Technologist, said 9 nanometer devices “can be ready more or less on time, in 2028 according to long-term forecasts or 2024, according to the 2002 (industry roadmap).”If Hu’s view is correct, fundamental limits on current two-dimensional integrated circuit technology are still far off. In that timeframe, the industry would have 25 years to reduce current lithography by a factor of 10, compared to 15 years for the last reduction. “There’s a lot of time,” Hu said.
Previous roadblocks to Moore’s Law scaling have included design productivity, fabrication costs, reliability, lithography, leakage, and materials.