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	<title>Comments on: Is growth over?</title>
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	<description>Accelerating Intelligence</description>
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		<title>By: George Grant</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/is-growth-over/comment-page-1#comment-137578</link>
		<dc:creator>George Grant</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 11 Apr 2013 13:03:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175662#comment-137578</guid>
		<description>When something is produced in sufficient quantity, the cost to produce it approaches the cost of the raw materials.  The greatest portion of the cost of obtaining raw materials is linked to the cost of energy.  If you would reduce costs of production, reduce the cost of energy.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>When something is produced in sufficient quantity, the cost to produce it approaches the cost of the raw materials.  The greatest portion of the cost of obtaining raw materials is linked to the cost of energy.  If you would reduce costs of production, reduce the cost of energy.</p>
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		<title>By: George Grant</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/is-growth-over/comment-page-1#comment-137574</link>
		<dc:creator>George Grant</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 11 Apr 2013 12:56:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175662#comment-137574</guid>
		<description>When I say &quot;growth&quot;, I mean efficiency.  What do you mean?  Post industrial countries have negative population growth.  Perhaps when the world is post industrial, world population will decline.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>When I say &#8220;growth&#8221;, I mean efficiency.  What do you mean?  Post industrial countries have negative population growth.  Perhaps when the world is post industrial, world population will decline.</p>
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		<title>By: Marcos Marin</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/is-growth-over/comment-page-1#comment-83013</link>
		<dc:creator>Marcos Marin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 02 Jan 2013 00:39:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175662#comment-83013</guid>
		<description>you never know...
around here.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>you never know&#8230;<br />
around here.</p>
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		<title>By: craigtown61</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/is-growth-over/comment-page-1#comment-82995</link>
		<dc:creator>craigtown61</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 Jan 2013 23:17:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175662#comment-82995</guid>
		<description>Easy, create the Universal Productivity Fund (UPF). Instead of corporations and business paying taxes to government, they instead pay 20% to the UPF, in which every citizen has 1 share. These funds stay in the private market and are available for greater productivity, loan funds to start ups, R&amp;D etc. In time this fund will do away with the need for retirement, welfare, school funding programs, etc. all funding by the political state through taxation will instead be done through the opposite, By feeding productivity and creativity all social problems will evolve away.  The dividends paid monthly alone on a fund comprising trillions of dollars would eliminate all of the need based programs.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Easy, create the Universal Productivity Fund (UPF). Instead of corporations and business paying taxes to government, they instead pay 20% to the UPF, in which every citizen has 1 share. These funds stay in the private market and are available for greater productivity, loan funds to start ups, R&amp;D etc. In time this fund will do away with the need for retirement, welfare, school funding programs, etc. all funding by the political state through taxation will instead be done through the opposite, By feeding productivity and creativity all social problems will evolve away.  The dividends paid monthly alone on a fund comprising trillions of dollars would eliminate all of the need based programs.</p>
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		<title>By: craigtown61</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/is-growth-over/comment-page-1#comment-82994</link>
		<dc:creator>craigtown61</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 Jan 2013 23:09:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175662#comment-82994</guid>
		<description>Kurzweil had one error in The Singularity is Near on page 100, where he thinks that inflation has been over estimated for decades. This is in fact an error, inflation has been greatly underestimated for decades especially since the great advance of science and technology in the late 50’s. If the Fed inflated the money supply at an average of 5% a year and the natural deflation rate of a freer market with increasing returns is creating a deflation rate of 4% a year, the economy would only register a 1% inflation rate in most products affected by the deflation. Thus the Fed could increasing inflate the money supply as technology took off greatly deflating the price of goods as the 20th century aged. The effect would be the under reporting of inflation as inflation is always the amount of money the FED pumps into the economy and not the costs of consumer goods. Since the Fed inflated prices 2,500% since 1913 the natural deflationary rate of the Law of Increasing and Exponential returns actually saved the US from a huge economic collapse decades ago, but the one thing the inflation did do was it caused all profits and prices to be artificially raised and it drained away capital thus causing a major slowdown in real growth. Inflation has been underreported as deflation, especially through technological development, has caused the real prices in terms of real wages to continue to drop even in the presence of inflation in increasing amounts.  Valid Economics is indispensable to understanding this whole entire economic mess and to see the way clearly to a “utopia” for all humanity.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Kurzweil had one error in The Singularity is Near on page 100, where he thinks that inflation has been over estimated for decades. This is in fact an error, inflation has been greatly underestimated for decades especially since the great advance of science and technology in the late 50’s. If the Fed inflated the money supply at an average of 5% a year and the natural deflation rate of a freer market with increasing returns is creating a deflation rate of 4% a year, the economy would only register a 1% inflation rate in most products affected by the deflation. Thus the Fed could increasing inflate the money supply as technology took off greatly deflating the price of goods as the 20th century aged. The effect would be the under reporting of inflation as inflation is always the amount of money the FED pumps into the economy and not the costs of consumer goods. Since the Fed inflated prices 2,500% since 1913 the natural deflationary rate of the Law of Increasing and Exponential returns actually saved the US from a huge economic collapse decades ago, but the one thing the inflation did do was it caused all profits and prices to be artificially raised and it drained away capital thus causing a major slowdown in real growth. Inflation has been underreported as deflation, especially through technological development, has caused the real prices in terms of real wages to continue to drop even in the presence of inflation in increasing amounts.  Valid Economics is indispensable to understanding this whole entire economic mess and to see the way clearly to a “utopia” for all humanity.</p>
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		<title>By: craigtown61</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/is-growth-over/comment-page-1#comment-82991</link>
		<dc:creator>craigtown61</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 Jan 2013 22:55:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175662#comment-82991</guid>
		<description>This is propaganda fraud. Look at the date that the green line peaked, about 1970. What happened during that time that greatly attacked and destroyed capital accumulation which is the driver of economic growth as well as natural economic deflation?  It is simple, look at the graphs you can Google on the inflation rate of the US. It takes off exponentially in the late 60’s early 70s especially under Nixon. Then add the neo-Malthusian anti-humanist Greens who have done everything to create an artificial resource scarcity that has done nothing but drive up the price of energy and all commodities. Their self-fulfilling prophesy is all based on getting everyone to believe that the world is ruled by the Law of Decreasing Returns, not Exponential Returns. Oils huge run up in price hit the GDP of the world hard!  This is all a fraud to get you to believe their linear system of thinking.  Krugman as a Keynesian is a linear troglodyte. It is the inflationary system itself that has covered over the incredible deflationary rate of technology. If the gov printing press were to stop all prices would plummet and growth would be exponential again, the very thing the UN and the Malthusians don’t want. Cheap abundant energy, commodities, etc. are a horror to them (Ehrlich et al.) Limited minds love limited systems in which they can cram a limited humanity into. Singularities are all about unlimited freedom of humanity.  Valid economics upholds the singularity, invalid ones are designed to derail it.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This is propaganda fraud. Look at the date that the green line peaked, about 1970. What happened during that time that greatly attacked and destroyed capital accumulation which is the driver of economic growth as well as natural economic deflation?  It is simple, look at the graphs you can Google on the inflation rate of the US. It takes off exponentially in the late 60’s early 70s especially under Nixon. Then add the neo-Malthusian anti-humanist Greens who have done everything to create an artificial resource scarcity that has done nothing but drive up the price of energy and all commodities. Their self-fulfilling prophesy is all based on getting everyone to believe that the world is ruled by the Law of Decreasing Returns, not Exponential Returns. Oils huge run up in price hit the GDP of the world hard!  This is all a fraud to get you to believe their linear system of thinking.  Krugman as a Keynesian is a linear troglodyte. It is the inflationary system itself that has covered over the incredible deflationary rate of technology. If the gov printing press were to stop all prices would plummet and growth would be exponential again, the very thing the UN and the Malthusians don’t want. Cheap abundant energy, commodities, etc. are a horror to them (Ehrlich et al.) Limited minds love limited systems in which they can cram a limited humanity into. Singularities are all about unlimited freedom of humanity.  Valid economics upholds the singularity, invalid ones are designed to derail it.</p>
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		<title>By: GAUSS</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/is-growth-over/comment-page-1#comment-82951</link>
		<dc:creator>GAUSS</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 Jan 2013 19:20:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175662#comment-82951</guid>
		<description>No need to apologize.  Just curious.  Anyway, happy new year!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>No need to apologize.  Just curious.  Anyway, happy new year!</p>
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		<title>By: Jimmy</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/is-growth-over/comment-page-1#comment-82722</link>
		<dc:creator>Jimmy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 Jan 2013 00:09:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175662#comment-82722</guid>
		<description>Your wrong. Done that was easy.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Your wrong. Done that was easy.</p>
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		<title>By: Marcos Marin</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/is-growth-over/comment-page-1#comment-82718</link>
		<dc:creator>Marcos Marin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 31 Dec 2012 23:49:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175662#comment-82718</guid>
		<description>Sorry.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Sorry.</p>
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		<title>By: eldras</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/is-growth-over/comment-page-1#comment-82693</link>
		<dc:creator>eldras</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 31 Dec 2012 22:08:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175662#comment-82693</guid>
		<description>If technology doesn&#039;t make economics obsolete it will have failed to reach a Singularity.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If technology doesn&#8217;t make economics obsolete it will have failed to reach a Singularity.</p>
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		<title>By: Blade</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/is-growth-over/comment-page-1#comment-82649</link>
		<dc:creator>Blade</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 31 Dec 2012 18:51:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175662#comment-82649</guid>
		<description>Hello notthe1st,
My thoughts here is to have the IRS eliminate the label employee and transition everyone to contractor status.  The safety net will need to be privatized (Lively Hood Insurance share by both the contractor and company). If the Citizen United decision can turn corporations into natural humans for political reasons, then humans should be afforded the same option in reverse when it comes to employment (each citizen is a corporation when dealing with any company considering contracting with them for their services). This will allow for fair compensation across the board, allow the individual to cover overhead cost and a reasonable profit.

The problems of production and pay is being solved by technology, we just haven&#039;t realized it yet. Take housing data-in essence, in its natural form it belongs to the property owner and they should share in the profits it generates. But, they don&#039;t because they have been to willing to give it away for free because the current process tells them that it has always been done this way. Well, the information from the data they actually own generates billions of dollars when the data is aggregated.  If a property owner is allowed to have a share of these profits, it alone will not make them rich, but it will be just one of many revenue streams that will help keep them from abject poverty and the economy growing. 

It will be a bumpy ride, but it doesn&#039;t necessarily need to be a long one. We will have to change our thinking where it concerns work and how we allow people to earn income. Let&#039;s Get Going!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hello notthe1st,<br />
My thoughts here is to have the IRS eliminate the label employee and transition everyone to contractor status.  The safety net will need to be privatized (Lively Hood Insurance share by both the contractor and company). If the Citizen United decision can turn corporations into natural humans for political reasons, then humans should be afforded the same option in reverse when it comes to employment (each citizen is a corporation when dealing with any company considering contracting with them for their services). This will allow for fair compensation across the board, allow the individual to cover overhead cost and a reasonable profit.</p>
<p>The problems of production and pay is being solved by technology, we just haven&#8217;t realized it yet. Take housing data-in essence, in its natural form it belongs to the property owner and they should share in the profits it generates. But, they don&#8217;t because they have been to willing to give it away for free because the current process tells them that it has always been done this way. Well, the information from the data they actually own generates billions of dollars when the data is aggregated.  If a property owner is allowed to have a share of these profits, it alone will not make them rich, but it will be just one of many revenue streams that will help keep them from abject poverty and the economy growing. </p>
<p>It will be a bumpy ride, but it doesn&#8217;t necessarily need to be a long one. We will have to change our thinking where it concerns work and how we allow people to earn income. Let&#8217;s Get Going!</p>
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		<title>By: GAUSS</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/is-growth-over/comment-page-1#comment-82627</link>
		<dc:creator>GAUSS</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 31 Dec 2012 17:33:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175662#comment-82627</guid>
		<description>Do explain.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Do explain.</p>
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		<title>By: Marcos Marin</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/is-growth-over/comment-page-1#comment-82600</link>
		<dc:creator>Marcos Marin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 31 Dec 2012 16:15:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175662#comment-82600</guid>
		<description>You should get your history straight. But, since Angel is selfishly keeping all my humor to herself, I will leave it at that.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You should get your history straight. But, since Angel is selfishly keeping all my humor to herself, I will leave it at that.</p>
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		<title>By: Ian Clarke</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/is-growth-over/comment-page-1#comment-82599</link>
		<dc:creator>Ian Clarke</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 31 Dec 2012 16:14:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175662#comment-82599</guid>
		<description>&quot;There will always be dictators, corruption, etc. &quot;

Personally, I think the days are numbered for both.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;There will always be dictators, corruption, etc. &#8221;</p>
<p>Personally, I think the days are numbered for both.</p>
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		<title>By: OsirisX</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/is-growth-over/comment-page-1#comment-82490</link>
		<dc:creator>OsirisX</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 31 Dec 2012 09:20:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175662#comment-82490</guid>
		<description>I predict a creative explosion.  People who were unable to share their talents will now be free to explore and grow their creativity.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I predict a creative explosion.  People who were unable to share their talents will now be free to explore and grow their creativity.</p>
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		<title>By: OsirisX</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/is-growth-over/comment-page-1#comment-82484</link>
		<dc:creator>OsirisX</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 31 Dec 2012 08:45:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175662#comment-82484</guid>
		<description>I agree.  With soul crushing work lifted off our backs - a lot of creative output will be released.  There are a lot of people who are unable to give their creative gifts to society because of our mind numbing labor system.  I think creativity will skyrocket along with innovation.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I agree.  With soul crushing work lifted off our backs &#8211; a lot of creative output will be released.  There are a lot of people who are unable to give their creative gifts to society because of our mind numbing labor system.  I think creativity will skyrocket along with innovation.</p>
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		<title>By: Johan Liebert</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/is-growth-over/comment-page-1#comment-82482</link>
		<dc:creator>Johan Liebert</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 31 Dec 2012 08:36:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175662#comment-82482</guid>
		<description>The industrial revolution was an incremental step to shaping how we used the material we extracted from the ground.  But the effects were lasting. It spurred the assembly line, precise measurements, efficiency, logistics, etc.  Interestingly, workers at the time felt threatened by automation (even way back in the early 1800s) and so used a variety of methods to slow production.  But with clear hindsight what can we learn? Technological progress is both a smashing of the prior ways of doing things so we may do more with less, but also a tool to develop new industries to employ these workers.  

The real risk as I see it isn&#039;t technology somehow sputtering out, or being unable to develop better or new industries (e.g. computers smashed old ways of pretty much everything but also spawned a new industry to support them).  Rather, I see technological growth displacing ever smarter people as the threat.  We keep forgetting that IQ is a bell curve.  Take your average Joe and 1/2 the people will be stupider and 1/2 will be smarter.  Technological change is causing the machine to displace ever smarter people, and these folks won&#039;t be able to retool.  

I think the moment the machines begin to displace engineers is the time we should really start to worry.  Engineers haven&#039;t lost the need to think and strategize yet.  If that happens, we may as well inject ourselves with nanobots or upload our consciousness to merge with the machines, because we won&#039;t have a snowball&#039;s chance in hell of maintaining our inquisitiveness and ultimately stagnate (think Idiotocracy).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The industrial revolution was an incremental step to shaping how we used the material we extracted from the ground.  But the effects were lasting. It spurred the assembly line, precise measurements, efficiency, logistics, etc.  Interestingly, workers at the time felt threatened by automation (even way back in the early 1800s) and so used a variety of methods to slow production.  But with clear hindsight what can we learn? Technological progress is both a smashing of the prior ways of doing things so we may do more with less, but also a tool to develop new industries to employ these workers.  </p>
<p>The real risk as I see it isn&#8217;t technology somehow sputtering out, or being unable to develop better or new industries (e.g. computers smashed old ways of pretty much everything but also spawned a new industry to support them).  Rather, I see technological growth displacing ever smarter people as the threat.  We keep forgetting that IQ is a bell curve.  Take your average Joe and 1/2 the people will be stupider and 1/2 will be smarter.  Technological change is causing the machine to displace ever smarter people, and these folks won&#8217;t be able to retool.  </p>
<p>I think the moment the machines begin to displace engineers is the time we should really start to worry.  Engineers haven&#8217;t lost the need to think and strategize yet.  If that happens, we may as well inject ourselves with nanobots or upload our consciousness to merge with the machines, because we won&#8217;t have a snowball&#8217;s chance in hell of maintaining our inquisitiveness and ultimately stagnate (think Idiotocracy).</p>
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		<title>By: Boyd Martin</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/is-growth-over/comment-page-1#comment-82387</link>
		<dc:creator>Boyd Martin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 31 Dec 2012 00:30:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175662#comment-82387</guid>
		<description>I think you are missing what is really being referred to here, and that is the undeniable fact that we live on an island with finite resources, without the mandate for concomitant interplanetary technology that would relieve any further demand for growth.  Therefore, at some point--whether it&#039;s in 20 years or 200 years, growth must stop or be reversed.  Intelligent economic thinkers such as Charles Eisenstein, advocate reframing human expectations as a way to head off the inevitable future pain and suffering of dwindling resources.  He asks, Why not use the machines to create leisure, rather than more labor?  After all, that&#039;s what they are usually invented for.  Why must we all work like hamster slaves?  Of course this requires re-imagining money, but isn&#039;t that a lot easier than continuing to figure out what people can do for &quot;work&quot;, and certainly a lot easier than developing the technology to mine and ship interplanetary resources.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think you are missing what is really being referred to here, and that is the undeniable fact that we live on an island with finite resources, without the mandate for concomitant interplanetary technology that would relieve any further demand for growth.  Therefore, at some point&#8211;whether it&#8217;s in 20 years or 200 years, growth must stop or be reversed.  Intelligent economic thinkers such as Charles Eisenstein, advocate reframing human expectations as a way to head off the inevitable future pain and suffering of dwindling resources.  He asks, Why not use the machines to create leisure, rather than more labor?  After all, that&#8217;s what they are usually invented for.  Why must we all work like hamster slaves?  Of course this requires re-imagining money, but isn&#8217;t that a lot easier than continuing to figure out what people can do for &#8220;work&#8221;, and certainly a lot easier than developing the technology to mine and ship interplanetary resources.</p>
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		<title>By: Ian Clarke</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/is-growth-over/comment-page-1#comment-82375</link>
		<dc:creator>Ian Clarke</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 30 Dec 2012 23:40:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175662#comment-82375</guid>
		<description>I don&#039;t believe people are inherently lazy. Given the time and resources to educate themselves in their favoured fields (rather than mind-numbing menial work) will lead to a speeding up of innovation and creativity. This is what I see in our futures - everyone having the opportunity to contribute, and doing so for the buzz/satisfaction - the problem-solving mammal in his/her element. At the moment, I believe a lot of creative minds are being smothered. An age of abundance will release these minds for all our betterment.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I don&#8217;t believe people are inherently lazy. Given the time and resources to educate themselves in their favoured fields (rather than mind-numbing menial work) will lead to a speeding up of innovation and creativity. This is what I see in our futures &#8211; everyone having the opportunity to contribute, and doing so for the buzz/satisfaction &#8211; the problem-solving mammal in his/her element. At the moment, I believe a lot of creative minds are being smothered. An age of abundance will release these minds for all our betterment.</p>
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		<title>By: ChrisF</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/is-growth-over/comment-page-1#comment-82356</link>
		<dc:creator>ChrisF</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 30 Dec 2012 21:01:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175662#comment-82356</guid>
		<description>In general, ANY technological advance is sufficient to increase growth. It&#039;s just a matter of finding a more efficient way to turn raw materials into consumable goods. Yes, the improvements are often just &quot;incremental&quot;, but the compounded effect is what&#039;s driving the continued geometric rise in global GDP (that and our population growth of course...)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In general, ANY technological advance is sufficient to increase growth. It&#8217;s just a matter of finding a more efficient way to turn raw materials into consumable goods. Yes, the improvements are often just &#8220;incremental&#8221;, but the compounded effect is what&#8217;s driving the continued geometric rise in global GDP (that and our population growth of course&#8230;)</p>
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		<title>By: pt</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/is-growth-over/comment-page-1#comment-82347</link>
		<dc:creator>pt</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 30 Dec 2012 20:03:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175662#comment-82347</guid>
		<description>3d printing also has massive potential. Turning from a goods-dominated marketplace to an idea marketplace may have pretty profound impacts.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>3d printing also has massive potential. Turning from a goods-dominated marketplace to an idea marketplace may have pretty profound impacts.</p>
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		<title>By: pt</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/is-growth-over/comment-page-1#comment-82343</link>
		<dc:creator>pt</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 30 Dec 2012 19:55:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175662#comment-82343</guid>
		<description>Past decades have been spurred quite a bit by continual advances in computing, which show no signs of slowing down in terms of a reduction of price per computing power. Graphene processors are a short term reality which would be a pretty incredible leap. Making energy extremely cheap with rapid growth of alternatives before the decade end is also a real possibility, particularly if inexpensive nanotech infused batteries make an appearance soon.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Past decades have been spurred quite a bit by continual advances in computing, which show no signs of slowing down in terms of a reduction of price per computing power. Graphene processors are a short term reality which would be a pretty incredible leap. Making energy extremely cheap with rapid growth of alternatives before the decade end is also a real possibility, particularly if inexpensive nanotech infused batteries make an appearance soon.</p>
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		<title>By: notthe1st</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/is-growth-over/comment-page-1#comment-82314</link>
		<dc:creator>notthe1st</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 30 Dec 2012 18:14:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175662#comment-82314</guid>
		<description>Gee- there&#039;s a streetlight over here so here is where I&#039;ll look for my wallet that I lost OVER THERE.
Yeah guys - economics is concerned with money and credit and trade deficits and things that can be measured. Some heavy duty math comes into play. But economic theories and systems are the RESULT of human activity and aside from some overly broad generalizations about human behavior economics is not a proper gauge by which human behavior is to be controlled or measured.
Honest-to-God, flesh and blood, people are what makes any set of social arrangements work and  persist and if the great mass of people decide that those arrangements are not working in their best interest - well here come the pitchforks.
Unfortunately, today, too many people are finding that the roads designed mainly for the use of big rigs (aka multinational banks and companies) are not designed for them.I can&#039;t get a income tax rate of 0-15% because I don&#039;t earn enough!
You can&#039;t predict or fine-tune human behavior. People are the wild cards in 
the human equation. If we could predict the arrival of folks such as Ghandi, Nelson Mandela, Steve Jobs and Mark Zukerberg - life would so much simpler. But an unknown farmer in Tunisia set himself on fire and the entire Middle East was thrown into turmoil.
Economics is a system designed by men for the benefit of men. If we just put people first, the rest of the variables will fall into place.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Gee- there&#8217;s a streetlight over here so here is where I&#8217;ll look for my wallet that I lost OVER THERE.<br />
Yeah guys &#8211; economics is concerned with money and credit and trade deficits and things that can be measured. Some heavy duty math comes into play. But economic theories and systems are the RESULT of human activity and aside from some overly broad generalizations about human behavior economics is not a proper gauge by which human behavior is to be controlled or measured.<br />
Honest-to-God, flesh and blood, people are what makes any set of social arrangements work and  persist and if the great mass of people decide that those arrangements are not working in their best interest &#8211; well here come the pitchforks.<br />
Unfortunately, today, too many people are finding that the roads designed mainly for the use of big rigs (aka multinational banks and companies) are not designed for them.I can&#8217;t get a income tax rate of 0-15% because I don&#8217;t earn enough!<br />
You can&#8217;t predict or fine-tune human behavior. People are the wild cards in<br />
the human equation. If we could predict the arrival of folks such as Ghandi, Nelson Mandela, Steve Jobs and Mark Zukerberg &#8211; life would so much simpler. But an unknown farmer in Tunisia set himself on fire and the entire Middle East was thrown into turmoil.<br />
Economics is a system designed by men for the benefit of men. If we just put people first, the rest of the variables will fall into place.</p>
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		<title>By: notthe1st</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/is-growth-over/comment-page-1#comment-82292</link>
		<dc:creator>notthe1st</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 30 Dec 2012 16:42:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175662#comment-82292</guid>
		<description>If you don&#039;t participate in commercial/productive enterprises - you don&#039;t get paid. This is the central tenet of modern economic systems. We do have (in most western countries) a safety net to keep folks from falling into abject poverty - but the basic ideal for everyone is to get a job or run your own business to pay your own way.
However here&#039;s the rub - all productive enterprises are rushing towards the ideal of doing more with less. Year after year companies and governments are seeking ways to increase productivity and employing fewer people to get greater results.
Well the global population just keeps increasing. There are more and more people in the world and fewer ways to participate in the global economic engine.
I don&#039;t doubt that as we approach the singularity there will be more than enough resources to enable everyone to live a decent life. But what do we do in the intervening thirty years as people become unemployed by the millions and all the profits accrue to the owners and managers of companies that don&#039;t need real human beings in their factories, farms and virtual enterprises?
Hang on for a VERY bumpy ride kiddies.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If you don&#8217;t participate in commercial/productive enterprises &#8211; you don&#8217;t get paid. This is the central tenet of modern economic systems. We do have (in most western countries) a safety net to keep folks from falling into abject poverty &#8211; but the basic ideal for everyone is to get a job or run your own business to pay your own way.<br />
However here&#8217;s the rub &#8211; all productive enterprises are rushing towards the ideal of doing more with less. Year after year companies and governments are seeking ways to increase productivity and employing fewer people to get greater results.<br />
Well the global population just keeps increasing. There are more and more people in the world and fewer ways to participate in the global economic engine.<br />
I don&#8217;t doubt that as we approach the singularity there will be more than enough resources to enable everyone to live a decent life. But what do we do in the intervening thirty years as people become unemployed by the millions and all the profits accrue to the owners and managers of companies that don&#8217;t need real human beings in their factories, farms and virtual enterprises?<br />
Hang on for a VERY bumpy ride kiddies.</p>
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		<title>By: advancedatheist</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/is-growth-over/comment-page-1#comment-82270</link>
		<dc:creator>advancedatheist</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 30 Dec 2012 15:28:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175662#comment-82270</guid>
		<description>&gt;IMO the solution would be to improve the quality of the minds doing the science.

That conflicts with the diversity ideology promoted by our elites. White and Asian MEN tend to dominate technological fields for a reason, and when the state steps in to enforce &quot;diversity,&quot; then progress in those fields effectively stops.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&gt;IMO the solution would be to improve the quality of the minds doing the science.</p>
<p>That conflicts with the diversity ideology promoted by our elites. White and Asian MEN tend to dominate technological fields for a reason, and when the state steps in to enforce &#8220;diversity,&#8221; then progress in those fields effectively stops.</p>
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		<title>By: Alastair Carnegie</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/is-growth-over/comment-page-1#comment-82255</link>
		<dc:creator>Alastair Carnegie</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 30 Dec 2012 14:26:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175662#comment-82255</guid>
		<description>NASA&#039;s &quot;Dawn Mission&quot;  216 Kleopatra, a gigantic pile of rubble ore in the Asteroid &quot;M&quot; Belt. ... How many cubic kilometers of which metal are you interested in? even Gold is no problem, but not too many cubic kilometers of that stuff. Iron? As much as you like!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>NASA&#8217;s &#8220;Dawn Mission&#8221;  216 Kleopatra, a gigantic pile of rubble ore in the Asteroid &#8220;M&#8221; Belt. &#8230; How many cubic kilometers of which metal are you interested in? even Gold is no problem, but not too many cubic kilometers of that stuff. Iron? As much as you like!</p>
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		<title>By: nicky</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/is-growth-over/comment-page-1#comment-82246</link>
		<dc:creator>nicky</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 30 Dec 2012 13:01:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175662#comment-82246</guid>
		<description>All true, but in the last 4 years the expansion of bureaucracy and regulation has been so big that western economies and some  others are grinding to a halt. The system of price signals to steer economic decisions has been all but destroyed by central bankers.
There may not be  any entrepreneurs left to bring new discoveries to the market.
So where is the economic turn around going to come from if no one is allowed to move without permission from the bureaucrats.?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>All true, but in the last 4 years the expansion of bureaucracy and regulation has been so big that western economies and some  others are grinding to a halt. The system of price signals to steer economic decisions has been all but destroyed by central bankers.<br />
There may not be  any entrepreneurs left to bring new discoveries to the market.<br />
So where is the economic turn around going to come from if no one is allowed to move without permission from the bureaucrats.?</p>
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		<title>By: ChrisF</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/is-growth-over/comment-page-1#comment-82224</link>
		<dc:creator>ChrisF</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 30 Dec 2012 11:14:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175662#comment-82224</guid>
		<description>Yes, agreed. Even when we figure out how to generate unlimited free energy and raw materials, I think it&#039;s likely that two &quot;factors of production&quot; will remain in short supply : intellectual property and actual physical land. Building a house may be free, but you still need to acquire the land to build on. At least until we leave the earth and begin to colonize the galaxy in large numbers...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yes, agreed. Even when we figure out how to generate unlimited free energy and raw materials, I think it&#8217;s likely that two &#8220;factors of production&#8221; will remain in short supply : intellectual property and actual physical land. Building a house may be free, but you still need to acquire the land to build on. At least until we leave the earth and begin to colonize the galaxy in large numbers&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: Editor</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/is-growth-over/comment-page-1#comment-82194</link>
		<dc:creator>Editor</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 30 Dec 2012 08:33:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175662#comment-82194</guid>
		<description>Thanks, I thought that graph looked familiar :) .</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thanks, I thought that graph looked familiar :) .</p>
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		<title>By: Vladislav</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/is-growth-over/comment-page-1#comment-82190</link>
		<dc:creator>Vladislav</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 30 Dec 2012 08:15:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175662#comment-82190</guid>
		<description>http://blogs.cgdev.org/globaldevelopment/2008/09/crisis-not-if-we-take-a-long-v.php

http://www.singularity.com/charts/page99.html</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://blogs.cgdev.org/globaldevelopment/2008/09/crisis-not-if-we-take-a-long-v.php" rel="nofollow">http://blogs.cgdev.org/globaldevelopment/2008/09/crisis-not-if-we-take-a-long-v.php</a></p>
<p><a href="http://www.singularity.com/charts/page99.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.singularity.com/charts/page99.html</a></p>
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		<title>By: New Code Order</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/is-growth-over/comment-page-1#comment-82064</link>
		<dc:creator>New Code Order</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 30 Dec 2012 04:38:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175662#comment-82064</guid>
		<description>You all are way off topic. The question is:
Are there any more technologies that can be developed - in the short term, not decades or centuries - that would bring growth?
The answer is: No. 
Growth (as we knew it during the past decades). Is. Over.

By all means prove me wrong.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You all are way off topic. The question is:<br />
Are there any more technologies that can be developed &#8211; in the short term, not decades or centuries &#8211; that would bring growth?<br />
The answer is: No.<br />
Growth (as we knew it during the past decades). Is. Over.</p>
<p>By all means prove me wrong.</p>
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		<title>By: Editor</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/is-growth-over/comment-page-1#comment-81917</link>
		<dc:creator>Editor</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 30 Dec 2012 00:29:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175662#comment-81917</guid>
		<description>Thanks. Do you have links for sources?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thanks. Do you have links for sources?</p>
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		<title>By: Dale</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/is-growth-over/comment-page-1#comment-81809</link>
		<dc:creator>Dale</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 29 Dec 2012 20:27:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175662#comment-81809</guid>
		<description>Great observation.  I&#039;d add that vanquishing scarcity (a critical factor in evolutionary biology and natural selection) will occur when (not if) we solve the alternative (and inexpensive) energy conundrum (e.g. with solar, wind, geothermal, et al), which will &quot;fuel&quot; our robots and other machines, desalinate ocean water, etc.  This was a thematic in Diamindis&#039; book &quot;Abundance.&quot;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Great observation.  I&#8217;d add that vanquishing scarcity (a critical factor in evolutionary biology and natural selection) will occur when (not if) we solve the alternative (and inexpensive) energy conundrum (e.g. with solar, wind, geothermal, et al), which will &#8220;fuel&#8221; our robots and other machines, desalinate ocean water, etc.  This was a thematic in Diamindis&#8217; book &#8220;Abundance.&#8221;</p>
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		<title>By: Will Jones</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/is-growth-over/comment-page-1#comment-81806</link>
		<dc:creator>Will Jones</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 29 Dec 2012 20:22:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175662#comment-81806</guid>
		<description>They are against the policies of the progressive left that demand more and more centralized control.  The propaganda comes from the progressives because most would not buy into their ideas if they werent spun and frosted.  The problem is most dont connect their progressive vote with the conditions we have today created by progressive policies.  They foolishly think more progessive ideas are need and implemented.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>They are against the policies of the progressive left that demand more and more centralized control.  The propaganda comes from the progressives because most would not buy into their ideas if they werent spun and frosted.  The problem is most dont connect their progressive vote with the conditions we have today created by progressive policies.  They foolishly think more progessive ideas are need and implemented.</p>
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		<title>By: Will Jones</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/is-growth-over/comment-page-1#comment-81798</link>
		<dc:creator>Will Jones</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 29 Dec 2012 20:14:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175662#comment-81798</guid>
		<description>The unborn dont exist.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The unborn dont exist.</p>
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		<title>By: GAUSS</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/is-growth-over/comment-page-1#comment-81792</link>
		<dc:creator>GAUSS</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 29 Dec 2012 20:01:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175662#comment-81792</guid>
		<description>A great point - right now in the US it&#039;s illegal to patent algorithms, yet companies are doing it every day and filing multi-million dollar cases on them.  Were someone to successfully patent a solution to P=NP, likely in the form of some meta-algorithm, the results would be catastrophic.  Here&#039;s to hoping our patent system wakes up before this can happen.

There will always be dictators, corruption, etc.  Before MontSanto, there was the East India Trading Co.  This pattern has been propagating for some time now.  The idea is these laws would have to be laid down now, not after the fact.  For a long time, here in the US we&#039;ve been legislating on problems that have been nipping at our heels for decades.  Rarely do you see someone bring up legislature that actually preempts certain problems.  But that&#039;s all very political, so we shan&#039;t get into it much, lest the forums explode. :)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A great point &#8211; right now in the US it&#8217;s illegal to patent algorithms, yet companies are doing it every day and filing multi-million dollar cases on them.  Were someone to successfully patent a solution to P=NP, likely in the form of some meta-algorithm, the results would be catastrophic.  Here&#8217;s to hoping our patent system wakes up before this can happen.</p>
<p>There will always be dictators, corruption, etc.  Before MontSanto, there was the East India Trading Co.  This pattern has been propagating for some time now.  The idea is these laws would have to be laid down now, not after the fact.  For a long time, here in the US we&#8217;ve been legislating on problems that have been nipping at our heels for decades.  Rarely do you see someone bring up legislature that actually preempts certain problems.  But that&#8217;s all very political, so we shan&#8217;t get into it much, lest the forums explode. :)</p>
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		<title>By: Sally Morem</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/is-growth-over/comment-page-1#comment-81770</link>
		<dc:creator>Sally Morem</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 29 Dec 2012 19:16:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175662#comment-81770</guid>
		<description>Advanced tech will make it easy as pie to share the wealth.  Want to help your poor neighbor?  Tell your 3-D printer replicator to replicate itself.  Give your neighbor the copy.  It&#039;s not like we&#039;ll need a welfare state ordering us about at this point.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Advanced tech will make it easy as pie to share the wealth.  Want to help your poor neighbor?  Tell your 3-D printer replicator to replicate itself.  Give your neighbor the copy.  It&#8217;s not like we&#8217;ll need a welfare state ordering us about at this point.</p>
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		<title>By: Sally Morem</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/is-growth-over/comment-page-1#comment-81758</link>
		<dc:creator>Sally Morem</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 29 Dec 2012 19:01:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175662#comment-81758</guid>
		<description>The editor&#039;s aside is important.  Accelerating tech may make it possible for everyone to own their own wide array of production and service robots, including, nanobots, when they come into being.  This, at least, is what I&#039;m predicting  At that point, all scarcities vanish and economics changes forever.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The editor&#8217;s aside is important.  Accelerating tech may make it possible for everyone to own their own wide array of production and service robots, including, nanobots, when they come into being.  This, at least, is what I&#8217;m predicting  At that point, all scarcities vanish and economics changes forever.</p>
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		<title>By: Deleo77</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/is-growth-over/comment-page-1#comment-81755</link>
		<dc:creator>Deleo77</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 29 Dec 2012 18:54:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175662#comment-81755</guid>
		<description>I don&#039;t think there will be more war, because wars often come about when there is too much demand for limited resources.  I think the future for many countries will look like the way Japan is now - slow growth, low demand, aging populations.  I am not sure that is a recipe for war.  No matter how much the government tries to loosen monetary policy, it won&#039;t create growth because there isn&#039;t a demand for workers, no matter how much money gets thrown into the system, because everything is automated.  

I am not one for banging the raising taxes drum, but it would seem that the best solution is to raise taxes on corporate profits over time and require them to bring their profits back into their home countries.  It would create a society where corporations with trillions of dollars of profits would pay taxes to the government and the money would be distributed throughout the population.  That sounds a lot like socialism, but pure capitalism with a huge labor force is going to go away.  So some hybrid like this has to exist, and keep in mind, corporations will need this system at some point to maintain demand for their products.  Their profits will ultimately come back to them with new purchases.  They will also be able to make things with fewer workers, and they will be taxed on their profits only.  It could work, but everyone will still have to figure out what to do with their free time while the robots and AI make everything.  Hopefully that doesn&#039;t involve starting a war.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I don&#8217;t think there will be more war, because wars often come about when there is too much demand for limited resources.  I think the future for many countries will look like the way Japan is now &#8211; slow growth, low demand, aging populations.  I am not sure that is a recipe for war.  No matter how much the government tries to loosen monetary policy, it won&#8217;t create growth because there isn&#8217;t a demand for workers, no matter how much money gets thrown into the system, because everything is automated.  </p>
<p>I am not one for banging the raising taxes drum, but it would seem that the best solution is to raise taxes on corporate profits over time and require them to bring their profits back into their home countries.  It would create a society where corporations with trillions of dollars of profits would pay taxes to the government and the money would be distributed throughout the population.  That sounds a lot like socialism, but pure capitalism with a huge labor force is going to go away.  So some hybrid like this has to exist, and keep in mind, corporations will need this system at some point to maintain demand for their products.  Their profits will ultimately come back to them with new purchases.  They will also be able to make things with fewer workers, and they will be taxed on their profits only.  It could work, but everyone will still have to figure out what to do with their free time while the robots and AI make everything.  Hopefully that doesn&#8217;t involve starting a war.</p>
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		<title>By: tim the realist</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/is-growth-over/comment-page-1#comment-81752</link>
		<dc:creator>tim the realist</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 29 Dec 2012 18:52:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175662#comment-81752</guid>
		<description>In Chine they use people armed with shovels to dig instead of heavy equipment.  If the people had to use teaspoons there would be even more &quot;jobs&quot;.  This expensive approach can only work in non-capitalist economies where inefficiency is encouraged.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In Chine they use people armed with shovels to dig instead of heavy equipment.  If the people had to use teaspoons there would be even more &#8220;jobs&#8221;.  This expensive approach can only work in non-capitalist economies where inefficiency is encouraged.</p>
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		<title>By: John Y</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/is-growth-over/comment-page-1#comment-81744</link>
		<dc:creator>John Y</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 29 Dec 2012 18:30:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175662#comment-81744</guid>
		<description>Technology drives fast growth but bad government policies trump technology.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Technology drives fast growth but bad government policies trump technology.</p>
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		<title>By: Vladislav</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/is-growth-over/comment-page-1#comment-81722</link>
		<dc:creator>Vladislav</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 29 Dec 2012 17:46:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175662#comment-81722</guid>
		<description>What nonsense!
Look at this chart:
http://newmarksdoor.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341c9b9953ef0105356af946970c-800wi

So economic growth is something that is soooo predictable!

And read this:
Michael Clemens of the Center for Global Development provides some interesting perspective.

The entire effect of the 1994 so-called “Tequila” Crisis on per-capita real income of the average Mexican . . . was erased in exactly three years. In Thailand, epicenter of the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, it took all of six years. In Indonesia, the poverty rate in the population was back to its pre-crisis level within just three years. Even the big, bad 1982 Latin American debt crisis, in this figure, looks a lot more like mean reversion: Yes growth was bad in Mexico after 1982, but it had been unusually high in the years beforehand, and the net result is that real income per capita simply reverted to its historical trend. The same goes for Thailand in 1997. Bad years are typically followed by offsetting good years, and good years by bad. The good years get smaller headlines, or none at all.

He also points us to this graph of real GDP per capita for the last 200 years of American history:

He writes:

Over these years we had violent financial crashes of various types, bank panics, piles of recessions and a huge depression, many foreign wars and one enormous domestic war, had a central bank and didn’t, were on the gold standard and weren’t, had governments topple in scandal and multiple leaders assassinated, and what did it all amount to in the medium to long run? In per-capita income terms: Nothing. The overall trend does not bend or shift. Every bad year was followed by a good year that returned us to trend. The US average growth rate of real per capita incomes over the last 190 years has been 1.8% a year, and the same rate over the last 10 years has been…. 1.8% a year. Stare at that graph: The Great Depression was traumatic in countless ways, but astonishingly, it’s not clear that we are any worse off today than we would be if the whole thing never occurred. Anyone who made such a claim in the 1930s would have been scoffed at, but that’s what happened.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>What nonsense!<br />
Look at this chart:<br />
<a href="http://newmarksdoor.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341c9b9953ef0105356af946970c-800wi" rel="nofollow">http://newmarksdoor.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341c9b9953ef0105356af946970c-800wi</a></p>
<p>So economic growth is something that is soooo predictable!</p>
<p>And read this:<br />
Michael Clemens of the Center for Global Development provides some interesting perspective.</p>
<p>The entire effect of the 1994 so-called “Tequila” Crisis on per-capita real income of the average Mexican . . . was erased in exactly three years. In Thailand, epicenter of the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, it took all of six years. In Indonesia, the poverty rate in the population was back to its pre-crisis level within just three years. Even the big, bad 1982 Latin American debt crisis, in this figure, looks a lot more like mean reversion: Yes growth was bad in Mexico after 1982, but it had been unusually high in the years beforehand, and the net result is that real income per capita simply reverted to its historical trend. The same goes for Thailand in 1997. Bad years are typically followed by offsetting good years, and good years by bad. The good years get smaller headlines, or none at all.</p>
<p>He also points us to this graph of real GDP per capita for the last 200 years of American history:</p>
<p>He writes:</p>
<p>Over these years we had violent financial crashes of various types, bank panics, piles of recessions and a huge depression, many foreign wars and one enormous domestic war, had a central bank and didn’t, were on the gold standard and weren’t, had governments topple in scandal and multiple leaders assassinated, and what did it all amount to in the medium to long run? In per-capita income terms: Nothing. The overall trend does not bend or shift. Every bad year was followed by a good year that returned us to trend. The US average growth rate of real per capita incomes over the last 190 years has been 1.8% a year, and the same rate over the last 10 years has been…. 1.8% a year. Stare at that graph: The Great Depression was traumatic in countless ways, but astonishingly, it’s not clear that we are any worse off today than we would be if the whole thing never occurred. Anyone who made such a claim in the 1930s would have been scoffed at, but that’s what happened.</p>
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		<title>By: dwk67</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/is-growth-over/comment-page-1#comment-81702</link>
		<dc:creator>dwk67</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 29 Dec 2012 17:15:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175662#comment-81702</guid>
		<description>There is no problem with growth if we start to move out into space, first for resources, and then for settlements. There is an inifinite amount of wealth waiting out there for us if we dare to claim it. If you told someone in july 1969 after Apollo 11 landed on the moon that NASA couldn&#039;t even launch men into orbit in 2012, they would have thought you were nuts. All the planetary challenges we face now are things we will have to learn to solve in order to be a successful spacefaring civilization. We are capable of doing so, but are we still bold enough to do so, that&#039;s the question...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There is no problem with growth if we start to move out into space, first for resources, and then for settlements. There is an inifinite amount of wealth waiting out there for us if we dare to claim it. If you told someone in july 1969 after Apollo 11 landed on the moon that NASA couldn&#8217;t even launch men into orbit in 2012, they would have thought you were nuts. All the planetary challenges we face now are things we will have to learn to solve in order to be a successful spacefaring civilization. We are capable of doing so, but are we still bold enough to do so, that&#8217;s the question&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: Kyle Rybski</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/is-growth-over/comment-page-1#comment-81693</link>
		<dc:creator>Kyle Rybski</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 29 Dec 2012 16:56:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175662#comment-81693</guid>
		<description>As it happens, as the quality of life increases, population growth more quickly approaches zero.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As it happens, as the quality of life increases, population growth more quickly approaches zero.</p>
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		<title>By: Christian Gehman</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/is-growth-over/comment-page-1#comment-81677</link>
		<dc:creator>Christian Gehman</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 29 Dec 2012 16:20:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175662#comment-81677</guid>
		<description>Further to the point about offshoring knowledge worker and data processing jobs -- and completely overlooked thus far in all conversations about the health insurance mandate known as ObamaCare -- is the most important question of all:  where will the jobs live?  For example, when Anthem Blue Cross was purchased by (primarily) Indian investors, Governor McDonnell in Virginia forbade the overseas transfer of many back office jobs.  To get around the governor&#039;s prohibition mandate, the new Indian owners of Anthem Blue Cross transferred the jobs to Illinois, parked them there for six months or a year, and THEN shipped them overseas.  Problems like this could be addressed with legislation at the federal and state level.  If they are not addressed, then a huge source of jobs for American citizens will quietly and in many cases covertly move offshore -- to India and the Philippines.  This is the true travesty embedded in ObamaCare, and -- so far! -- no politician has ev en mentioned it.  No provisions of the Interstate Commerce Act can be construed as requiring Americans to compete for work with low paid workers in India.  The Obamacare health insurance jobs -- and all the data -- should be kept here in America.  Wake up -- this multi-trillion dollar heist is waiting to happen, and it will happen on your watch unless you actually take the time to do something about it.  
The same is true for Student Loans -- much of the student loan processing and many of the data centers are located overseas (to the Philippines, among other places).  Money paid out in wages overseas rarely has a positive effect on stimulating demand in America.  Stimulating demand creates the need for investment in manufacturing that will  help satisfy that demand.  Tax breaks create wealth -- and often the wealth decides to invest itself overseas.  Tax Breaks do not stimulate the demand from the middle class consumers that is necessary to stimulate investment. So when American wages  level off for 30 years, eventually the American economy staggers into a prolonged period of malaise.  The plain fact is that America has been paying its wealthiest citizens too much for the last 50 years.  Even Warren Buffet agrees that what we need now is not a minimal tax for the wealthy - or no tax at all! -- and here&#039;s the link:  http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/26/opinion/buffett-a-minimum-tax-for-the-wealthy.html?_r=0&amp;pagewanted=all&amp;gwh=</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Further to the point about offshoring knowledge worker and data processing jobs &#8212; and completely overlooked thus far in all conversations about the health insurance mandate known as ObamaCare &#8212; is the most important question of all:  where will the jobs live?  For example, when Anthem Blue Cross was purchased by (primarily) Indian investors, Governor McDonnell in Virginia forbade the overseas transfer of many back office jobs.  To get around the governor&#8217;s prohibition mandate, the new Indian owners of Anthem Blue Cross transferred the jobs to Illinois, parked them there for six months or a year, and THEN shipped them overseas.  Problems like this could be addressed with legislation at the federal and state level.  If they are not addressed, then a huge source of jobs for American citizens will quietly and in many cases covertly move offshore &#8212; to India and the Philippines.  This is the true travesty embedded in ObamaCare, and &#8212; so far! &#8212; no politician has ev en mentioned it.  No provisions of the Interstate Commerce Act can be construed as requiring Americans to compete for work with low paid workers in India.  The Obamacare health insurance jobs &#8212; and all the data &#8212; should be kept here in America.  Wake up &#8212; this multi-trillion dollar heist is waiting to happen, and it will happen on your watch unless you actually take the time to do something about it.<br />
The same is true for Student Loans &#8212; much of the student loan processing and many of the data centers are located overseas (to the Philippines, among other places).  Money paid out in wages overseas rarely has a positive effect on stimulating demand in America.  Stimulating demand creates the need for investment in manufacturing that will  help satisfy that demand.  Tax breaks create wealth &#8212; and often the wealth decides to invest itself overseas.  Tax Breaks do not stimulate the demand from the middle class consumers that is necessary to stimulate investment. So when American wages  level off for 30 years, eventually the American economy staggers into a prolonged period of malaise.  The plain fact is that America has been paying its wealthiest citizens too much for the last 50 years.  Even Warren Buffet agrees that what we need now is not a minimal tax for the wealthy &#8211; or no tax at all! &#8212; and here&#8217;s the link:  <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/26/opinion/buffett-a-minimum-tax-for-the-wealthy.html?_r=0&#038;pagewanted=all&#038;gwh=" rel="nofollow">http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/26/opinion/buffett-a-minimum-tax-for-the-wealthy.html?_r=0&#038;pagewanted=all&#038;gwh=</a></p>
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		<title>By: trakk</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/is-growth-over/comment-page-1#comment-81666</link>
		<dc:creator>trakk</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 29 Dec 2012 15:47:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175662#comment-81666</guid>
		<description>Its not a solution....its an inevitability.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Its not a solution&#8230;.its an inevitability.</p>
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		<title>By: Christian Gehman</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/is-growth-over/comment-page-1#comment-81656</link>
		<dc:creator>Christian Gehman</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 29 Dec 2012 15:25:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175662#comment-81656</guid>
		<description>&quot;All the gains in wealth accrue to whoever owns the robots.&quot;  -- Didn&#039;t this already happen?  But alas, the truth is that &quot;all the gains in wealth&quot; have accrued to the super rich wealthy elite, whose highly paid lobbyists have managed to give a tax regime that  lets them pay tax on their income at rates ranging from absolutely nothing to about a tenth of what the middle class pays.   You might read Ferdinand Lundberg&#039;s book The Rich and the Super Rich for a cogent look at the history of the lobbying efforts that created not only these legislative initiatives, but also a large super wealthy elite class; and in fact the most important result is that the insane tax breaks for the wealthiest Americans passed in the name of &quot;job creation, did in fact create jobs -- overseas! -- and bankrupted or impoverished American government on every level from local school boards and town governments on up through city, county, state and federal government.   And see this article relating to how H1-B visas robbed American knowledge workers of $10 trillion dollars over the last few years -- by giving jobs to foreigners.  http://www.thesocialcontract.com/pdf/twentytwo-three/tsc-22-3-nelson.pdf
Again, the owners of the companies benefited, and the American people paid the bill.  It may no longer be true that the best driver of investment is increasing demand in a vibrant, thriving, prosperous economy -- as long as most of the money goes into the pockets of the rich and the super rich.  It seems to me that those people declared war on the rest of us fifty or sixty years ago, and now we&#039;re going to suffer while they keep laughing all the way to the bank.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;All the gains in wealth accrue to whoever owns the robots.&#8221;  &#8212; Didn&#8217;t this already happen?  But alas, the truth is that &#8220;all the gains in wealth&#8221; have accrued to the super rich wealthy elite, whose highly paid lobbyists have managed to give a tax regime that  lets them pay tax on their income at rates ranging from absolutely nothing to about a tenth of what the middle class pays.   You might read Ferdinand Lundberg&#8217;s book The Rich and the Super Rich for a cogent look at the history of the lobbying efforts that created not only these legislative initiatives, but also a large super wealthy elite class; and in fact the most important result is that the insane tax breaks for the wealthiest Americans passed in the name of &#8220;job creation, did in fact create jobs &#8212; overseas! &#8212; and bankrupted or impoverished American government on every level from local school boards and town governments on up through city, county, state and federal government.   And see this article relating to how H1-B visas robbed American knowledge workers of $10 trillion dollars over the last few years &#8212; by giving jobs to foreigners.  <a href="http://www.thesocialcontract.com/pdf/twentytwo-three/tsc-22-3-nelson.pdf" rel="nofollow">http://www.thesocialcontract.com/pdf/twentytwo-three/tsc-22-3-nelson.pdf</a><br />
Again, the owners of the companies benefited, and the American people paid the bill.  It may no longer be true that the best driver of investment is increasing demand in a vibrant, thriving, prosperous economy &#8212; as long as most of the money goes into the pockets of the rich and the super rich.  It seems to me that those people declared war on the rest of us fifty or sixty years ago, and now we&#8217;re going to suffer while they keep laughing all the way to the bank.</p>
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		<title>By: james</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/is-growth-over/comment-page-1#comment-81493</link>
		<dc:creator>james</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 29 Dec 2012 09:29:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175662#comment-81493</guid>
		<description>Great point.  What happens if someone or some company develops a general purpose engineering technology of enormous power.  Say software that can solve any solvable problem far faster than what we could dream of today.   Say there is a algorithm that proves p=np or something similar, and someone now &quot;owns&quot; this idea. Its not hard to imagine how fast such a algorithm could be integrated into all other services and products. Suddenly this person/company literally rules the world.   What is the umbrella policy for such an event? What is the limit of ownership on such a thing? How do ensure both legally and in practice that everyone gets treated fairly, and that there are no world dictators?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Great point.  What happens if someone or some company develops a general purpose engineering technology of enormous power.  Say software that can solve any solvable problem far faster than what we could dream of today.   Say there is a algorithm that proves p=np or something similar, and someone now &#8220;owns&#8221; this idea. Its not hard to imagine how fast such a algorithm could be integrated into all other services and products. Suddenly this person/company literally rules the world.   What is the umbrella policy for such an event? What is the limit of ownership on such a thing? How do ensure both legally and in practice that everyone gets treated fairly, and that there are no world dictators?</p>
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		<title>By: james</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/is-growth-over/comment-page-1#comment-81485</link>
		<dc:creator>james</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 29 Dec 2012 09:07:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175662#comment-81485</guid>
		<description>What about the whole idea of ai merging with human intelligence?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>What about the whole idea of ai merging with human intelligence?</p>
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		<title>By: trakk</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/is-growth-over/comment-page-1#comment-81459</link>
		<dc:creator>trakk</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 29 Dec 2012 08:28:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=175662#comment-81459</guid>
		<description>We are already on that path. Something similar also has happened once in before in the 14 th century</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>We are already on that path. Something similar also has happened once in before in the 14 th century</p>
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