Comments on: Machines will achieve human-level intelligence in the 2028 to 2150 range: poll http://www.kurzweilai.net/machines-will-achieve-human-level-intelligence-in-the-2028-to-2150-range-poll Accelerating Intelligence Sat, 25 May 2013 19:50:18 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.4.1 By: egore http://www.kurzweilai.net/machines-will-achieve-human-level-intelligence-in-the-2028-to-2150-range-poll/comment-page-1#comment-9865 egore Thu, 08 Mar 2012 14:20:52 +0000 http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=116203#comment-9865 Anything we can think of has probably all ready happened. Anything we can think of has probably all ready happened.

]]> By: George Allen Miller » Singularity Event only 50% by 2050? WTF? http://www.kurzweilai.net/machines-will-achieve-human-level-intelligence-in-the-2028-to-2150-range-poll/comment-page-1#comment-3262 George Allen Miller » Singularity Event only 50% by 2050? WTF? Sat, 30 Apr 2011 02:30:12 +0000 http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=116203#comment-3262 [...] to the original article: http://www.kurzweilai.net/machines-will-achieve-human-level-intelligence-in-the-2028-to-2150-range-p... Share and [...] [...] to the original article: http://www.kurzweilai.net/machines-will-achieve-human-level-intelligence-in-the-2028-to-2150-range-p… Share and [...]

]]> By: dirk.bruere http://www.kurzweilai.net/machines-will-achieve-human-level-intelligence-in-the-2028-to-2150-range-poll/comment-page-1#comment-3256 dirk.bruere Fri, 29 Apr 2011 13:33:46 +0000 http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=116203#comment-3256 Far too pessimistic in my opinion, given that exascale machines will be available by 2020, and that they will likely exceed Human brain processing capacity by some considerable margin. Presumably the report is focusing on s/w only. As for orgs likely to develop strong AI, look to the NSA - it is *exactly* the tech they need, and the funding they have Far too pessimistic in my opinion, given that exascale machines will be available by 2020, and that they will likely exceed Human brain processing capacity by some considerable margin. Presumably the report is focusing on s/w only. As for orgs likely to develop strong AI, look to the NSA – it is *exactly* the tech they need, and the funding they have

]]> By: cesium62 http://www.kurzweilai.net/machines-will-achieve-human-level-intelligence-in-the-2028-to-2150-range-poll/comment-page-1#comment-3234 cesium62 Wed, 27 Apr 2011 18:46:21 +0000 http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=116203#comment-3234 Argh, typo. A cluster would have on the order of 10 to 100 *Tera*Flops of compute capability. Argh, typo. A cluster would have on the order of 10 to 100 *Tera*Flops of compute capability.

]]> By: cesium62 http://www.kurzweilai.net/machines-will-achieve-human-level-intelligence-in-the-2028-to-2150-range-poll/comment-page-1#comment-3233 cesium62 Wed, 27 Apr 2011 18:24:10 +0000 http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=116203#comment-3233 I'm amazed that self-proclaimed experts in the field are so pessimisstic and produce these sorts of responses. (1) Watson and various aspects of Google Instant Search clearly suggest that AGI will not be modeled on human intelligence. We currently are taking huge databases with billions to trillions of data points to provide results that look intelligent to a human: e.g. to perform good language translation or to suggest to a user of google search what kinds of similar questions others have recently asked. (2) Many of the responses for "what sort of result would suggest AGI will be achieved within 5 years" seem to actually answer the question "how will we tell when AGI has been achieved". To a certain extent, we keep moving the bar on what is AI. It used to be: play chess well. Then: play Jeopardy well. Natural language translation is probably the next milestone, and the suggested "when a computer writes the world's best chess playing program" would be a strong result. (3) Industry is clearly the leader for where AGI will most likely arise. Dell, HP, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, IBM, ... are each putting together mutli-billion dollar grids of computers for cloud computing. The amount of money industry can spend on the problem dwarfs what academia can spend. The NSA and DOD could outspend industry with a concerted effort, but isn't likely to. (4) Maybe the responses for when AGI will be achieved are in terms of the commonly referenced $1,000 computer. However, the poll doesn't specify a price range. Watson is nearly a cluster-sized computer and has about the right amount of hardware to compete with a human brain. A Google-sized grid of computers certainly has plenty of raw hardware. Give us another 10 years, and the software ecosystem running in the cloud should be rich enough that most observers will feel we essentially have AGI. @matsbeem: Moravec makes the best argument I've seen for how much hardware is needed to compete with a human brain and came up with a figure of about 100 TeraFlops. Cluster sized computers of 1K to 10K processors each of about 10 Gigaflops (based on memory bus bandwidth) provide 10 to 100 PetaFlops of compute capability. A google-sized grid would contain on the order of 100 clusters. All computer power in the world dwarfs a google-sized grid. I’m amazed that self-proclaimed experts in the field are so pessimisstic and produce these sorts of responses.
(1) Watson and various aspects of Google Instant Search clearly suggest that AGI will not be modeled on human intelligence. We currently are taking huge databases with billions to trillions of data points to provide results that look intelligent to a human: e.g. to perform good language translation or to suggest to a user of google search what kinds of similar questions others have recently asked.
(2) Many of the responses for “what sort of result would suggest AGI will be achieved within 5 years” seem to actually answer the question “how will we tell when AGI has been achieved”. To a certain extent, we keep moving the bar on what is AI. It used to be: play chess well. Then: play Jeopardy well. Natural language translation is probably the next milestone, and the suggested “when a computer writes the world’s best chess playing program” would be a strong result.
(3) Industry is clearly the leader for where AGI will most likely arise. Dell, HP, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, IBM, … are each putting together mutli-billion dollar grids of computers for cloud computing. The amount of money industry can spend on the problem dwarfs what academia can spend. The NSA and DOD could outspend industry with a concerted effort, but isn’t likely to.
(4) Maybe the responses for when AGI will be achieved are in terms of the commonly referenced $1,000 computer. However, the poll doesn’t specify a price range. Watson is nearly a cluster-sized computer and has about the right amount of hardware to compete with a human brain. A Google-sized grid of computers certainly has plenty of raw hardware. Give us another 10 years, and the software ecosystem running in the cloud should be rich enough that most observers will feel we essentially have AGI.

@matsbeem: Moravec makes the best argument I’ve seen for how much hardware is needed to compete with a human brain and came up with a figure of about 100 TeraFlops. Cluster sized computers of 1K to 10K processors each of about 10 Gigaflops (based on memory bus bandwidth) provide 10 to 100 PetaFlops of compute capability. A google-sized grid would contain on the order of 100 clusters. All computer power in the world dwarfs a google-sized grid.

]]> By: matsbeem http://www.kurzweilai.net/machines-will-achieve-human-level-intelligence-in-the-2028-to-2150-range-poll/comment-page-1#comment-3232 matsbeem Wed, 27 Apr 2011 17:10:30 +0000 http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=116203#comment-3232 A recent statement was, that all the computer power in the world equals roughly one human brain today. If Moore's law will be true for ever, it will take about 50 ears before an average computer will equal the processing power of 1 brain. A recent statement was, that all the computer power in the world equals roughly one human brain today. If Moore’s law will be true for ever, it will take about 50 ears before an average computer will equal the processing power of 1 brain.

]]> By: MysticMonkeyGuru http://www.kurzweilai.net/machines-will-achieve-human-level-intelligence-in-the-2028-to-2150-range-poll/comment-page-1#comment-3226 MysticMonkeyGuru Wed, 27 Apr 2011 00:57:42 +0000 http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=116203#comment-3226 The Human Genome Project is one thing, but Strong AI is another. I put the coming of strong AI between 2100 and 2150. The Human Genome Project is one thing, but Strong AI is another. I put the coming of strong AI between 2100 and 2150.

]]> By: RobinSongs http://www.kurzweilai.net/machines-will-achieve-human-level-intelligence-in-the-2028-to-2150-range-poll/comment-page-1#comment-3225 RobinSongs Tue, 26 Apr 2011 22:16:22 +0000 http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=116203#comment-3225 Indeed. Once upon a time, people said there was a very low percent chance of sequencing the entire human genome within 15 years. Indeed. Once upon a time, people said there was a very low percent chance of sequencing the entire human genome within 15 years.

]]> By: Arenamontanus http://www.kurzweilai.net/machines-will-achieve-human-level-intelligence-in-the-2028-to-2150-range-poll/comment-page-1#comment-3224 Arenamontanus Tue, 26 Apr 2011 21:14:23 +0000 http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=116203#comment-3224 A slightly updated diagram (taking the skewness of people's estimates into account) can be found here: http://www.flickr.com/photos/arenamontanus/5657887546/in/set-72157626583204714 For some more thoughts about the statistics, see my blog post on it, http://www.aleph.se/andart/archives/2011/04/ai_overlords_and_their_deciles.html A slightly updated diagram (taking the skewness of people’s estimates into account) can be found here: http://www.flickr.com/photos/arenamontanus/5657887546/in/set-72157626583204714
For some more thoughts about the statistics, see my blog post on it, http://www.aleph.se/andart/archives/2011/04/ai_overlords_and_their_deciles.html

]]> By: Singme http://www.kurzweilai.net/machines-will-achieve-human-level-intelligence-in-the-2028-to-2150-range-poll/comment-page-1#comment-3216 Singme Tue, 26 Apr 2011 17:06:06 +0000 http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=116203#comment-3216 Clearly they are thinking linearly and not exponentially! Clearly they are thinking linearly and not exponentially!

]]> By: Machines will achieve human-level intelligence in the 2028 to 2150 range: poll http://www.kurzweilai.net/machines-will-achieve-human-level-intelligence-in-the-2028-to-2150-range-poll/comment-page-1#comment-3215 Machines will achieve human-level intelligence in the 2028 to 2150 range: poll Tue, 26 Apr 2011 16:35:27 +0000 http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=116203#comment-3215 [...] the full article here Share this:SharePrintEmailDiggRedditStumbleUpon Future, [...] [...] the full article here Share this:SharePrintEmailDiggRedditStumbleUpon Future, [...]

]]> By: Natasha http://www.kurzweilai.net/machines-will-achieve-human-level-intelligence-in-the-2028-to-2150-range-poll/comment-page-1#comment-3211 Natasha Tue, 26 Apr 2011 15:35:01 +0000 http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=116203#comment-3211 Are surveys a reliable? I think Sandberg was spot on when he said information pooling should be taken with a "grain of salt." I value this work, but I have to say that I'd like to see Sandberg do more neuroscience. We have plenty of theorists on the future and transhumanism, but not enough practitioners. Are surveys a reliable? I think Sandberg was spot on when he said information pooling should be taken with a “grain of salt.” I value this work, but I have to say that I’d like to see Sandberg do more neuroscience. We have plenty of theorists on the future and transhumanism, but not enough practitioners.

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