Will future technology--such as supersmart computers, nanobots and genetic mutation--accelerate out of control, perhaps wiping us all out? That's the concern of the pessimists, as stated by Bill Joy in a Wired article last year. The optimists, such as Raymond Kurzweil, believe technological progress is inevitable and can be controlled. The debates continue here (and on our MindX forum).

BREAKPOINT: terrorists vs. transhumanists By Richard A. Clarke
Former counterterrorism czar Richard Clarke’s BREAKPOINT novel, set in the year 2012, is based on emerging technologies. "Globegrid," a high-speed global network, links supercomputers worldwide. Combined with advanced AI software, it promises to reverse-engineer the brain, revolutionize genomics, enable medical breakthroughs, develop advanced human-machine interfaces, and allow for genetic alterations and even uploading consciousness. But it spurs a terrorist-fundamentalist Luddite backlash against transhumanists, as hackers take down the power grid, and destroy vital international data and telecom links, communications satellites, and biotech firms. (Added May 18th 2007)

Space Wars: The First Six Hours of World War III By William B. Scott
Space Wars by Willliam Scott, Michael Coumatos, and William Birnes, Forge Books (April 17, 2007) describes how the first hours of World War III might play out in the year 2010. While fiction, it's based on real-world military scenarios and technologies, dramatically highlighting the West's vulnerability to destruction of its space-based commercial and military communications infrastructure. (Added April 17th 2007)

The Moon as backup drive for civilization By KurzweilAI.net
Imaginative new ideas for using space to protect civilization against existential risks, such as killer asteroids, nuclear war, and global terrorism, are in the works. The public increasingly sees NASA as irrelevant; we need a revitalized new vision of space, says a new breed of space activists. Gerard O'Neill would be proud. (Added September 24th 2006)

Lifeboat Foundation Nanoshield By Michael Vassar and Robert A. Freitas Jr.
Tomorrow's biggest danger may be nanoweapons (grey goo and other) created with molecular manufacturing. The Lifeboat Foundation proposes development of detection methods, such as infrared satellite surveillance for nanobot signatures, along with a three-layer defense system, with devices such as an orbiting mirror to focus concentrated sunlight on an ecophagic outbreak. (Added August 6th 2006)

Biowar for Dummies By Paul Boutin
How hard is it to build your own weapon of mass destruction? We take a crash course in supervirus engineering to find out. (Added July 11th 2006)

Interview: How much do we need to know? By Bill Joy
To limit access to risky information and technologies by bioterrorists, we should price catastrophe into the cost of doing business, rather than regulate things, says Bill Joy. Things judged to be dangerous would be expensive, and the most expensive would be withdrawn. (Added July 10th 2006)

Molecular Manufacturing and the Developing World By Don Maclurcan
What is the purpose of molecular manufacturing, who will create and own it, and what are the risks and impacts on the world? A social scientist believes these questions could best be addressed in an international nanotechnology conference and grassroots events. (Added May 29th 2006)

Nanoethics and Technological Revolutions: A Precis. By Nick Bostrom
If we believe that nanotechnology will eventually amount to a technological revolution, and if we are going to attempt nanoethics, we should consider some of the earlier technological revolutions that humanity has undergone and how our moral principles and technology impact assessment exercises would have fared. (Added May 5th 2006)

What Price Freedom? By Robert A. Freitas Jr.
Is a tyrannized humanity worth preserving, even at the expense of its freedom, in order to maintain the very existence of the human species, recognizing that global tyranny is a logical end-state of the unchecked spread of nanotechnology-enabled dictatorships that are capable of employing perfect mind control? (Added May 5th 2006)

Cultural Dominants and Differential MNT Uptake By Damien Broderick
The impacts of radical and disruptive technologies such as molecular nanotechnology on societies deserve serious study by economists, sociologists and anthropologists. Would civil societies degenerate almost instantly into Hobbesian micro states, where the principal currency is direct power over other humans, expressed at the worst in sadistic or careless infliction of pain and consequent brutalization of spirit in slaves and masters alike? (Added March 30th 2006)

Globalization and Open Source Nano Economy By Giulio Prisco
Some of the problems of today's globalized world could be eliminated or reduced by developing operational worldwide molecular design and manufacturing capabilities. Instead of shipping physical objects, their detailed design specification in a "Molecular Description Language" (MDL) will be transmitted over a global data grid evolved from today's Internet and then physically "printed" by "nano printers" at remote sites. This would allow communities wishing to remain independent to retain their autonomy. (Added March 30th 2006)

Nano-Guns, Nano-Germs, and Nano-Steel By Mike Treder
Within our lifetimes, we are likely to witness battles on a scale never before seen. Powered by molecular manufacturing, near-future wars may threaten our freedom, our way of life, and even our survival. Superior military technology allowed the Spanish to conquer the Incan empire in 1532. Could today’s most powerful civilization, the United States, be just as easily conquered by a nano-enabled attacker? (Added March 29th 2006)

Molecular Manufacturing and 21st Century Policing By Thomas J. Cowper
Will nanofactories foster global anarchy? Will nations devolve into a technologically-driven arms race, the winner dominating or destroying the planet with powerful molecular-manufacturing-enabled weapons? Or will the world's Big Brothers grow larger and more tyrannical, using advanced nanotechnology to "protect" their law abiding masses through increasing surveillance, control and internal subjugation? A law-enforcement executive asks the tough questions. (Added March 29th 2006)

Nanofactories, Gang Wars, and "Feelies" By Damien Broderick
In 30 years, a new intelligent species might share the planet with us and dirt-cheap molecular manufacturing may end poverty and strife. But there exists a risk that a world of lotus-eaters will degenerate into gang wars among those for whom life retains no discipline or meaning. (Added February 3rd 2006)

The Pace and Proliferation of Biological Technologies By Rob Carlson
The parts for a DNA synthesizer can now be purchased for approximately $10,000. By 2010 a single person will be able to sequence or synthesize 10^10 bases a day. Within a decade a single person could sequence or synthesize all the DNA describing all the people on the planet many times over in an eight-hour day or sequence his or her own DNA within seconds. Given the power and threat of biological technologies, the only way to ensure safety in the long run is to push research and development as fast as possible. Open and distributed networks of researchers would provide an intelligence gathering capability and a flexible and robust workforce for developing technology. (Added March 4th 2004)

Statement for Extropy Institute Vital Progress Summit By Ray Kurzweil
Responding to the Presidential Bioethics Council report, "Beyond Therapy," Ray Kurzweil has written a keynote statement for the Extropy Institute's Vital Progress Summit, an Internet virtual discussion and debate. (Added February 18th 2004)

Molecular Manufacturing: Start Planning By Chris Phoenix
Molecular nanotechnology manufacturing is coming soon. The economic value--and military significance--of a nanofactory will be immense. But if a well-designed plan is not in place, serious risks will very likely lead to military destruction, social or economic disruption or unnecessary human suffering on a large scale. Here's what needs to be done. (Added October 9th 2003)

Bioterrorism and SARS By Mae-Wan Ho
The world has been whipped up into hysteria over terrorist attacks and "weapons of mass destruction." Governments want to ban the publication of sensitive scientific research results, and a group of major life sciences editors and authors has concurred. Some even suggest an international body to police research and publication. Dr. Mae-Wan Ho looks at the current SARS epidemic and argues why all of those measures to control bioterrorism are misplaced, and what's really needed. (Added April 17th 2003)

Technology Fear Factor By Daintry Duffy and Sari Kalin
Three futurists -- George Gilder, Ray Kurzweil, and Jaron Lanier -- agree that emerging dangerous technologies will require smarter defenses, such as standards diversity, decentralized systems, a transparent society, better communications between factions, and mutually beneficial collaboration of business leaders. (Added July 21st 2002)

Technotopia and the Death of Nature By James John Bell
There is something missing from the discussion of the technological singularity, says James Bell: the true cost of progress will mean the unprecedented decline of the planet's inhabitants -- an ever-increasing rate of global extinction, some warn. (Added May 22nd 2002)

Connectivity: What it is and why it is so important By Bob Frankston
The difference between the network and the application is crucial to the future of the Internet. Bob Frankston points out that connectivity is the basic resource, telephony and television are simply applications built on connectivity, and that we should replace complex regulation with the power of the marketplace. (Added February 11th 2002)

Review of Lawrence Lessig's The Future of Ideas By Lucas Hendrich and KurzweilAI.net
The fertile ground of the Internet has led to countless innovations, eliminating physical barriers and allowing a borderless, transparent source of information to flourish. How will the story of the Internet be played out in the 21st Century? (Added January 24th 2002)

Software, Property and Human Civilization By Jordan Pollack
In this Edge talk, Jordan Pollack discusses a phenomenon that may restrict innovation: the inability to buy products, due to the established model of software licensing. What are the implications for human civilization? (Added December 19th 2001)

Nanotechnology: Six Lessons from Sept. 11 By K. Eric Drexler
The Sept. 11 attacks confirmed the ongoing terrorist threat and the importance of proactive development of methods to prevent nanotech abuse, K. Eric Drexler, Chairman of the Foresight Institute said in a statement sent to institute members. The "nanotechnology boom" is beginning, he said, urging members to use their brains and their wallets to "ensure that the field of nanotechnology never has its own Sept. 11." (Added December 13th 2001)

Are We Becoming an Endangered Species? Technology and Ethics in the Twenty First Century By Ray Kurzweil
Ray Kurzweil addresses questions presented at Are We Becoming an Endangered Species? Technology and Ethics in the 21st Century, a conference on technology and ethics sponsored by Washington National Cathedral. Other panelists are Anne Foerst, Bill Joy and Bill Mckibben. (Added November 20th 2001)

Are We Becoming An Endangered Species? Technology and Ethics in the 21st Century By Washington National Cathedral
Are We Becoming an Endangered Species? Technology and Ethics in the 21st Century will bring together a panel of leading experts on November 19 at Washington National Cathedral in Washington, D.C. to explore the ethics of technological advances, especially as they relate to genetic engineering, nanotechnology and robotics. The panelists are Bill Joy, author, and co-founder and chief scientist of Sun Microsystems, Ray Kurzweil, author, inventor and president of Kurzweil Technologies, Anne Foerst, visiting professor for Theology and Computer Science at St. Bonaventure University and Bill McKibben, author, environmentalist and visiting scholar at Middlebury College. (Added November 8th 2001)

Identifying Terrorists Before They Strike By Steve Kirsch
Brain fingerprinting, a technique proven infallible in FBI tests and US Navy tests and accepted as evidence in US courts, could accurately identify trained terrorists before they strike. Had it been in place on September 11, it would have prevented all of the attackers from boarding the planes, says Infoseek founder Steve Kirsch. (Added October 4th 2001)

How to stop commercial air hijackings without inconveniencing air travelers By Steve Kirsch
Silicon Valley entrepreneur Steve Kirsch has an idea for preventing skyjacking: we install panic buttons that put the plane on forced autopilot, randomly select one of the nearest airports capable of accommodating that plane type, and automatically land the aircraft. (Added October 4th 2001)

A Dialog with the New York Times on the Technological Implications of the September 11 Disaster By Ray Kurzweil
In preparation for the New York Times article, "In the Next Chapter, Is Technology an Ally?," Ray Kurzweil engaged in a conversation with computer scientist Peter Neumann, science fiction author Bruce Sterling, law professor Lawrence Lessig, retired engineer Severo Ornstein, and cryptographer Whitfield Diffie, addressing questions of how technology and innovation will be shaped by the tragic events of September 11, 2001. (Added September 27th 2001)

Beyond 2001: HAL's Legacy for the Enterprise Generation By Frank Schirrmacher
Bill Joy and Robert Freitas debate the perils of a technology that, in the words of the author, is so far in the future that even the word infancy would be premature. But does science fiction indeed shape the future? (Added August 10th 2001)

One Half of An Argument By Ray Kurzweil
A counterpoint to Jaron Lanier's dystopian visions of runaway technological cataclysm in "One Half of a Manifesto." (Added July 31st 2001)

Postscript Re: Ray Kurzweil By Jaron Lanier
This postscript to his One Half of a Manifesto is a further discussion and criticism of exponential trends. Do these trends exist as predictive models, or are we playing connect-the-dots based upon an arbitrary selection of milestones and paradigm shifts? (Added July 30th 2001)

Excerpts from "One Half of a Manifesto" By Jaron Lanier
Does the optimism of technologists blur the question of quantitative improvements in hardware versus a lack of qualititative improvements in software? Do they point the way towards an eschatological cataclysm in which doom is imminent? (Added July 30th 2001)

In Response to By Ray Kurzweil
Although George Gilder and Richard Vigilante share Ray Kurzweil's grave concerns about Bill Joy's apparently neo-Luddite calls for relinguishing broad areas of technology, Kurzweil is critical of Gilder and Vigilante's skepticism regarding the feasibility of the dangers. (Added July 25th 2001)

Stop everything...IT'S TECHNO-HORROR! By George Gilder and Richard Vigilante
From Silicon Valley via Aspen, Bill Joy wants to call the police. On science. On technology. On the industry that made him rich. The Left is OverJoyed. (Added July 25th 2001)

The Storm Before the Calm By Robert Wright
Are we on the verge of an apocalyptic era? Robert Wright applies game theory to evolution, illustrating how the interdependence and competition between organisms lead to biological, cultural and technological evolution, with chaos and upheaval thrown in the mix. (Added July 2nd 2001)

Techies vs. Neo-Luddites: Progress Action Coalition Formed By Amara D. Angelica
The neo-Luddites are out in force to block new technologies such as genetic engineering, nanotechnology and artificial intelligence. The extropians are organizing to defend progress. (Added June 26th 2001)

Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards By Nick Bostrom
Nick Bostrom defines a new category of risks that could threaten humanity and intelligent life with extinction: existential risks. The future could be a dangerous place indeed. (Added May 29th 2001)

The Unabomber's Manifesto By Ted Kaczynski
This manifesto, presented here in its entirety, ranges from articulate, intelligent psychosocial analysis and criticism to angry delusion. We aren't endorsing Ted Kaczynski's views or actions, but we do believe that this text should be read as part of the debate between those who wish to relinquish further technological development and those who are optimistic about the positive impacts of technology on humanity and oppose impediments to progress. (Added May 14th 2001)

Nanotechnology: What Will It Mean? By Ralph C. Merkle
Ralph C. Merkle weighs in on the debate about the future of nanotechnology, considering its possible uses and abuses. (Added April 27th 2001)

Promise And Peril By Ray Kurzweil
Bill Joy wrote a controversial article in Wired advocating "relinquishment" of research on self-replicating technologies, such as nanobots. In this rebuttal, originally published in Interactive Week, Ray Kurzweil argues that these developments are inevitable and advocates ethical guidelines and responsible oversight. (Added April 9th 2001)

Engineering Humans, Part 1 By Rachel Massey
Genetic engineers are starting to modify human genes, using cloning, somatic cell manipulation, germline manipulation. The potential financial and health rewards are huge, but so are the risks. (Added March 28th 2001)

The Virtual Thomas Edison By Ray Kurzweil
As machines exceed human intelligence, will they threaten humanity? How will inventors keep up? Raymond Kurzweil lays out his vision of the future for Time Magazine's special issue on the future. (Added March 22nd 2001)

The Gray Goo Problem By Robert A. Freitas Jr.
In Eric Drexler's classic "grey goo" scenario, out-of-control nanotech replicators wipe out all life on Earth. This paper by Robert A. Freitas Jr. was the first quantitative technical analysis of this catastrophic scenario, also offering possible solutions. It was written in part as an answer to Bill Joy's recent concerns. (Added March 20th 2001)

Wild Cards: The Nature of Big Future Surprises By John Petersen
In the coming years, the world could experience a series of massively transformative events, or "wild cards," brought on by radical developments in areas such as AI and nanotechnology. Futurist John Petersen suggests strategies for dealing with them proactively. (Added March 7th 2001)

Kurzweil vs. Dertouzos By Ray Kurzweil and Michael L. Dertouzos
In this Technology Review article, Raymond Kurzweil and Michael Dertouzos debate Bill Joy's Wired article urging "relinquishment" of research in certain risky areas of nanotechnology, genetics, and robotics. (Added March 7th 2001)

Evolution and the Internet: Toward A Networked Humanity? By Danny Belkin
Integration of human and machine will lead to an interconnected "organism"--the next major evolutionary step forward for humanity, says immunology PhD candidate Danny Belkin. (Added February 26th 2001)

Building Gods or Building Our Potential Exterminators? By Hugo de Garis
Hugo de Garis is concerned that massively intelligent machines ("artilects") could become infinitely smarter than human beings, leading to warring factions over the question: should humanity risk building artilects? Result: gigadeaths. (See the author's The Artilect War book draft for further details.) (Added February 26th 2001)

Embrace, Don't Relinquish, the Future By Max More
Extropy Institute head Max More finds Bill Joy's Wired essay uninformed, unworkable, and even unethical because it will slow down progress in medicine and other vital areas, he believes. (Added February 22nd 2001)

The New Luddite Challenge By Ted Kaczynski
An excerpt from the Unabomber Manifesto that briefly summarizes the author's charge against technological progress. (Added February 22nd 2001)

Infinite Memory and Bandwidth: Implications for Artificial Intelligence By Raj Reddy
Not to worry about superintelligent machines taking over, says AI pioneer Dr. Raj Reddy. A more likely scenario: people who can think and act 1000 times faster, using personal intelligent agents. (Added February 22nd 2001)