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	<title>Comments on: Moore&#8217;s Law threatened by lithography woes</title>
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	<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/moores-law-threatened-by-lithography-woes</link>
	<description>Accelerating Intelligence</description>
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		<title>By: J.D.</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/moores-law-threatened-by-lithography-woes/comment-page-1#comment-47617</link>
		<dc:creator>J.D.</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 31 Oct 2012 18:34:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=166528#comment-47617</guid>
		<description>Additional information, it seems as though something like I suggest above is already in practice?
http://www.extremetech.com/computing/132604-intel-invests-in-asml-to-boost-extreme-uv-lithography-massive-450mm-wafers</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Additional information, it seems as though something like I suggest above is already in practice?<br />
<a href="http://www.extremetech.com/computing/132604-intel-invests-in-asml-to-boost-extreme-uv-lithography-massive-450mm-wafers" rel="nofollow">http://www.extremetech.com/computing/132604-intel-invests-in-asml-to-boost-extreme-uv-lithography-massive-450mm-wafers</a></p>
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		<title>By: J.D.</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/moores-law-threatened-by-lithography-woes/comment-page-1#comment-40543</link>
		<dc:creator>J.D.</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Oct 2012 18:51:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=166528#comment-40543</guid>
		<description>As I read the article (and some of the comments) I percieved a process design issue - you know time to change the system?  I believe that since Intel will already be forced to re-engineer their fab process and machinery, that it would make better sense to add exposure elements to the system - in other words... you want brighter?  Add more bulbs.  Wouldn&#039;t it be more efficient to increase the number of bulbs used in exposure and increase the etching efficiency and throughput ONCE - to 10 nm - rather than to go through pointless exercises of produce-standdown-upgrade-produce-etc.?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As I read the article (and some of the comments) I percieved a process design issue &#8211; you know time to change the system?  I believe that since Intel will already be forced to re-engineer their fab process and machinery, that it would make better sense to add exposure elements to the system &#8211; in other words&#8230; you want brighter?  Add more bulbs.  Wouldn&#8217;t it be more efficient to increase the number of bulbs used in exposure and increase the etching efficiency and throughput ONCE &#8211; to 10 nm &#8211; rather than to go through pointless exercises of produce-standdown-upgrade-produce-etc.?</p>
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		<title>By: tim the realist</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/moores-law-threatened-by-lithography-woes/comment-page-1#comment-40425</link>
		<dc:creator>tim the realist</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Oct 2012 12:28:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=166528#comment-40425</guid>
		<description>I&#039;ll explain this a little better than the article does.  

10nM feature etching is possible today.  it&#039;s all a matter of focusing the light onto a pattern.  The brighter the light source, the larger the pattern that can be etched at one time.  if a light source is dimmer than it takes several exposure patterns to complete one entire circuit layout.  This takes additional time on the equipment for each chip so there is less throughput / yield from a fab.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;ll explain this a little better than the article does.  </p>
<p>10nM feature etching is possible today.  it&#8217;s all a matter of focusing the light onto a pattern.  The brighter the light source, the larger the pattern that can be etched at one time.  if a light source is dimmer than it takes several exposure patterns to complete one entire circuit layout.  This takes additional time on the equipment for each chip so there is less throughput / yield from a fab.</p>
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		<title>By: Editor</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/moores-law-threatened-by-lithography-woes/comment-page-1#comment-40320</link>
		<dc:creator>Editor</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Oct 2012 08:21:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=166528#comment-40320</guid>
		<description>... or with the laws of physics: the diffraction limit, in this case.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8230; or with the laws of physics: the diffraction limit, in this case.</p>
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		<title>By: Sean Brazell</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/moores-law-threatened-by-lithography-woes/comment-page-1#comment-40272</link>
		<dc:creator>Sean Brazell</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Oct 2012 05:17:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=166528#comment-40272</guid>
		<description>Moore’s Law is NOT losing steam - it&#039;s a problem with mass production - not invention.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Moore’s Law is NOT losing steam &#8211; it&#8217;s a problem with mass production &#8211; not invention.</p>
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		<title>By: Bri</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/moores-law-threatened-by-lithography-woes/comment-page-1#comment-40233</link>
		<dc:creator>Bri</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Oct 2012 04:21:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=166528#comment-40233</guid>
		<description>Don&#039;t they have to cool the quantum computers down to near zereo. That would be one cold laptop!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Don&#8217;t they have to cool the quantum computers down to near zereo. That would be one cold laptop!</p>
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		<title>By: Bri</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/moores-law-threatened-by-lithography-woes/comment-page-1#comment-40231</link>
		<dc:creator>Bri</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Oct 2012 04:18:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=166528#comment-40231</guid>
		<description>I forget which one this is supposed to be. Is it the end by jaguars?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I forget which one this is supposed to be. Is it the end by jaguars?</p>
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		<title>By: Editor</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/moores-law-threatened-by-lithography-woes/comment-page-1#comment-40148</link>
		<dc:creator>Editor</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Oct 2012 02:42:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=166528#comment-40148</guid>
		<description>&quot;Maybe now, quantum computing, neuromorphic engineering, and other novel computing techniques will get some of the big money spent on digital devices&quot;... &quot;huge amounts of money being thrown at quantum computing&quot;

I assume you are referring to the recent $30 million investment in D-Wave? A tiny percentage of the billions spent on chip development and computers (and other digital devices). Will not meeting arbitrary marketing dates have serious impacts? I don&#039;t know. And I don&#039;t have data for spending on neuromorphic engineering, but it&#039;s for R&amp;D, so in the low millions and over many years. I don&#039;t know of any studies predicting development of marketable devices based on speculative quantum and neuromorphic technologies in this decade. If you have better numbers and market research studies on this, I would greatly appreciate updates.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;Maybe now, quantum computing, neuromorphic engineering, and other novel computing techniques will get some of the big money spent on digital devices&#8221;&#8230; &#8220;huge amounts of money being thrown at quantum computing&#8221;</p>
<p>I assume you are referring to the recent $30 million investment in D-Wave? A tiny percentage of the billions spent on chip development and computers (and other digital devices). Will not meeting arbitrary marketing dates have serious impacts? I don&#8217;t know. And I don&#8217;t have data for spending on neuromorphic engineering, but it&#8217;s for R&#038;D, so in the low millions and over many years. I don&#8217;t know of any studies predicting development of marketable devices based on speculative quantum and neuromorphic technologies in this decade. If you have better numbers and market research studies on this, I would greatly appreciate updates.</p>
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		<title>By: MrFriendly</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/moores-law-threatened-by-lithography-woes/comment-page-1#comment-40115</link>
		<dc:creator>MrFriendly</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Oct 2012 00:12:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=166528#comment-40115</guid>
		<description>&quot;Not likely&quot;

Why?  We&#039;re already seeing huge amounts of money being thrown at quantum computing research.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;Not likely&#8221;</p>
<p>Why?  We&#8217;re already seeing huge amounts of money being thrown at quantum computing research.</p>
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		<title>By: Editor</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/moores-law-threatened-by-lithography-woes/comment-page-1#comment-40113</link>
		<dc:creator>Editor</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Oct 2012 23:40:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=166528#comment-40113</guid>
		<description>Yes, we apologize. We are replacing it with Mayan predictions. We advise preparing for the end of the world on Dec. 21. :)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yes, we apologize. We are replacing it with Mayan predictions. We advise preparing for the end of the world on Dec. 21. :)</p>
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		<title>By: Mark</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/moores-law-threatened-by-lithography-woes/comment-page-1#comment-40107</link>
		<dc:creator>Mark</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Oct 2012 23:31:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=166528#comment-40107</guid>
		<description>Does this mean that the Singularity is cancelled?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Does this mean that the Singularity is cancelled?</p>
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		<title>By: Editor</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/moores-law-threatened-by-lithography-woes/comment-page-1#comment-40102</link>
		<dc:creator>Editor</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Oct 2012 23:11:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=166528#comment-40102</guid>
		<description>Yes, and it will be interesting to see if that cost will be passed along down the chain to users.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yes, and it will be interesting to see if that cost will be passed along down the chain to users.</p>
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		<title>By: mikandrial</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/moores-law-threatened-by-lithography-woes/comment-page-1#comment-40075</link>
		<dc:creator>mikandrial</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Oct 2012 20:05:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=166528#comment-40075</guid>
		<description>&quot;Without EUV, Intel believes it will have to write as many as five immersion patterns on a chip which will take more time and money but is still economical.&quot; - which to me means they can, but not without great cost; a stop gap measure till they can use the real thing.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;Without EUV, Intel believes it will have to write as many as five immersion patterns on a chip which will take more time and money but is still economical.&#8221; &#8211; which to me means they can, but not without great cost; a stop gap measure till they can use the real thing.</p>
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		<title>By: melajara</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/moores-law-threatened-by-lithography-woes/comment-page-1#comment-40056</link>
		<dc:creator>melajara</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Oct 2012 18:48:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=166528#comment-40056</guid>
		<description>I&#039;ll answer my own question. I don&#039;t think memristors will be GENERALLY available next year. Initially I estimated their impact on neuromorphic computing for 2015, now say 2017 for actual products.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;ll answer my own question. I don&#8217;t think memristors will be GENERALLY available next year. Initially I estimated their impact on neuromorphic computing for 2015, now say 2017 for actual products.</p>
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		<title>By: alliwant</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/moores-law-threatened-by-lithography-woes/comment-page-1#comment-40047</link>
		<dc:creator>alliwant</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Oct 2012 17:53:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=166528#comment-40047</guid>
		<description>Sounds as though the end for EUV is approaching.  Does anyone know the theoretical max resolution?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Sounds as though the end for EUV is approaching.  Does anyone know the theoretical max resolution?</p>
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		<title>By: Editor</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/moores-law-threatened-by-lithography-woes/comment-page-1#comment-40033</link>
		<dc:creator>Editor</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Oct 2012 16:44:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=166528#comment-40033</guid>
		<description>Added &quot;Without EUV, Intel believes it will have to write as many as five immersion patterns on a chip which will take more time and money but is still economical.&quot;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Added &#8220;Without EUV, Intel believes it will have to write as many as five immersion patterns on a chip which will take more time and money but is still economical.&#8221;</p>
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		<title>By: melajara</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/moores-law-threatened-by-lithography-woes/comment-page-1#comment-40015</link>
		<dc:creator>melajara</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Oct 2012 15:48:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=166528#comment-40015</guid>
		<description>Not before general availability of the memristor.
This was planned for 2013. Still on schedule?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Not before general availability of the memristor.<br />
This was planned for 2013. Still on schedule?</p>
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		<title>By: Marcos Marin</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/moores-law-threatened-by-lithography-woes/comment-page-1#comment-40012</link>
		<dc:creator>Marcos Marin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Oct 2012 15:35:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=166528#comment-40012</guid>
		<description>Good point, I would say none! This is probably a tantrum to scare the industry into getting them more funding.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Good point, I would say none! This is probably a tantrum to scare the industry into getting them more funding.</p>
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		<title>By: Marcos Marin</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/moores-law-threatened-by-lithography-woes/comment-page-1#comment-40011</link>
		<dc:creator>Marcos Marin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Oct 2012 15:32:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=166528#comment-40011</guid>
		<description>Yes, let us continue dripping tech on the undeserving unwashed masses instead of simply coming out with the 3D designs we already have...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yes, let us continue dripping tech on the undeserving unwashed masses instead of simply coming out with the 3D designs we already have&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: Uri</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/moores-law-threatened-by-lithography-woes/comment-page-1#comment-40010</link>
		<dc:creator>Uri</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Oct 2012 15:30:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=166528#comment-40010</guid>
		<description>so we got to wait longer? ;(</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>so we got to wait longer? ;(</p>
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		<title>By: snake0</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/moores-law-threatened-by-lithography-woes/comment-page-1#comment-40009</link>
		<dc:creator>snake0</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Oct 2012 15:30:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=166528#comment-40009</guid>
		<description>The article contradicts itself - it says that &#039;real&#039; 14nm isn&#039;t actually possible without EUV and yet Intel can shrink to 10nm WITHOUT it. So which is it??</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The article contradicts itself &#8211; it says that &#8216;real&#8217; 14nm isn&#8217;t actually possible without EUV and yet Intel can shrink to 10nm WITHOUT it. So which is it??</p>
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		<title>By: Editor</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/moores-law-threatened-by-lithography-woes/comment-page-1#comment-40000</link>
		<dc:creator>Editor</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Oct 2012 15:01:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=166528#comment-40000</guid>
		<description>Not likely</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Not likely</p>
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		<title>By: Dudegonebad</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/moores-law-threatened-by-lithography-woes/comment-page-1#comment-39995</link>
		<dc:creator>Dudegonebad</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Oct 2012 14:39:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=166528#comment-39995</guid>
		<description>Quantum computing is getting thefunding the advances warrant. Sorry - no quantum laptop anytime soon - let&#039;s get on with the EUV.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Quantum computing is getting thefunding the advances warrant. Sorry &#8211; no quantum laptop anytime soon &#8211; let&#8217;s get on with the EUV.</p>
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		<title>By: MrFriendly</title>
		<link>http://www.kurzweilai.net/moores-law-threatened-by-lithography-woes/comment-page-1#comment-39991</link>
		<dc:creator>MrFriendly</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Oct 2012 14:17:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=166528#comment-39991</guid>
		<description>This is good.  Maybe now, quantum computing, neuromorphic engineering, and other novel computing techniques will get some of the big money spent on digital devices.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This is good.  Maybe now, quantum computing, neuromorphic engineering, and other novel computing techniques will get some of the big money spent on digital devices.</p>
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