Comments on: Near-Earth asteroid 2012 DA14 to miss Earth on Feb. 15

By: Mr.X

Mr.X — Thu, 31 Jan 2013 21:18:33 +0000

Well, fortunatly only our athmosphere gets hit (often).

My meaning was: Steve can’t do anything about this particular asteriod.Presuming we exclude the usage of time machines;)

In the long run a defense against this kind of existential risk is necessary; I think even the infamous “powers-that-be” know this and will work on it.Furthermore, in the long run, who am I to say what Steve, you, or anyone else can do (or will do)?^^

I think that technological progress is our greatest existential risk in the short-term, not only for us as humans but maybe even for us as “beings”.

About gobbling up meteors etc: If your predictions about the economic system are incorrect, you may use this idea later on.

But I guess others are already planning to do something along these lines ;(

By: Cliff

Cliff — Thu, 31 Jan 2013 21:01:11 +0000

Plus or minus millions of years to the next potential extinction event notwithstanding, we are likely less than 100 years from having the ability to identify and alter the path of a large metor or comet long enough in advance such that it will miss the earth by a comfortable margin.

By: Bri

Bri — Thu, 31 Jan 2013 20:39:45 +0000

Actually we are getting to the point where we can do something. The individual has more power to influence the directions of humanity. We are coming into the true space age. Humanity could address this risk if it understands how imminent an impact could be. Most people don’t realize how frequently the earth is hit by damaging meteors and asteroids. When the first satellites went up to look for nukes they had so many false alarms because of impacts that burned up in the upper atmosphere. I also like the idea of gobbling these up and using them constructively. Communication( propaganda) stimulates awareness. Awareness stimulates action.

By: Mr.X

Mr.X — Thu, 31 Jan 2013 19:44:11 +0000

“I wouldn’t be so complacent. ”

Why not=? Why should he worry if he can’t do anything about it anyway?

By: godot

godot — Thu, 31 Jan 2013 19:03:16 +0000

I calculate this asteroid has a gravitational field of about 4×10^-17 Earth gravity. What is going to keep a rover from drifting into space?

By: WLGJR

WLGJR — Thu, 31 Jan 2013 14:41:29 +0000

We have much better computers (orders of magnitude greater storage and processing speed) than the time of Aldrin and Armstrong.
Of course we can do that. We need more people with will power/determination.

By: WLGJR

WLGJR — Thu, 31 Jan 2013 14:37:53 +0000

Perhaps a Earth populated by only unicellular organism can survive Mass Extinctions better? We know that mass extinctions are not visible (to modern paleontologists) before large multicellular creatures evolved after PreCambrian Explosion.

We know there is a solution. Colonize space ASAP.

By: melajara

melajara — Thu, 31 Jan 2013 12:27:23 +0000

True, in between, this event is a fantastic opportunity for a new observational mission. Let’s put a mini rover on this asteroid for scientific apparatus to be deployed in situ, including a small telescope. Too bad it won’t happen as defining proper rendez-vous at such velocity is not trivial.

By: brainditch

brainditch — Wed, 30 Jan 2013 23:13:03 +0000

A very rough estimate of its velocity at mach 62 (approx. 77,000 k/hr.) would leave me fairly worried should an impact occur….even if it’s only 45 meters in diameter. Quite a lot of potential physical shock damage there, depending on mass, of course.

By: WLGJR

WLGJR — Wed, 30 Jan 2013 23:12:45 +0000

And it would be a great idea to build a space habitat in situ, just like in the Deep Space Industry video. Let’s do that for real, instead of keep that as fancy science fiction forever.

By: WLGJR

WLGJR — Wed, 30 Jan 2013 23:10:58 +0000

We should not rely on luck. We should always be prepared.
There is no guarantee that the next asteroid will ram directly into Earth.

BTW I remember the article about put white-colored paintball to space to deflect asteroids.

I wonder whether are they (NASA and other similar organizations) actually doing it now.

By: GatorALLin

GatorALLin — Wed, 30 Jan 2013 21:15:18 +0000

Thinking along the lines of averages or statistics… going back 5 mass extinctions to 439 million years ago… then count how much time to the next mass extinction… you see it was 78 million years…. then the time between the next one was 113 million years, then only 52 million years, then 134 million years (they cycle under 100 million, then over..then under, then over). The average time between for the last for = 94.5 million years ago so if the last one was 65 million and you use AVERAGE to calculate it then we are lucky and have another 29.5 million. However, if you go by cycles then it is Little (78), big (113), smaller (52), bigger (134), so we are already 65 million from the last… if it was 65 or less it would have already happened….so still think the odds would be sometime less than 29.5 million from now (assuming humans can’t alter our destiny for a meteor or other natural disaster like a super volcano at Yellowstone or a dozen other good spots). Maybe we are long overdue for a non meteor mass extinction? http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2012/05/120501-yellowstone-supervolcano-eruption-science-ellis/

By: GatorALLin

GatorALLin — Wed, 30 Jan 2013 21:05:07 +0000

I guess they think the earth has at last 5 mass extinctions in our history that others can see due to geological and other clues from history just in the last 500 million years. I don’t think they fully agree yet on how many of these 5 were related directly (or indirectly) to a meteor strike. Maybe 3 of the 5… so that is interesting that it could be this high. Note that even the creation of the moon may be related to a major meteor impact (the size of Mars for example). http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/18/moon-form-lunar-rocks-meteorite-impact_n_1974786.html

so our history of mass extinctions may only go back 500 million years or so, when clearly the earth has a history of 4.54 billion years.

-439 million years ago was the Ordovician-Silurian extinction

-364 million years ago was the Late Devonian extinction

-251 million years ago was the Permian-Triassic extinction

-199 million to 214 million years ago, was the End Triassic extinction

-65 million years ago was the Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction

more info here http://www.endangeredspeciesinternational.org/overview.html

We are lucky that we have not had a huge meteor impact or mass extinction from other causes (man made or natural) in the last 4,000 years. I guess it is not really luck as much as it is statistical probabilities.

By: Bri

Bri — Wed, 30 Jan 2013 18:04:25 +0000

I wouldn’t be so complacent. Scientists found large chevron shaped deposits of ocean floor, thrown up onto Madagascar. They are about the size of Manhaten. They traced it back to an impact in the ocean nearby about 5000 years ago. They think that the mega fauna of North America were wiped out by a strike about 12,000 years ago. The Tunguska strike happened in Siberia in the 1800,s. The effects would be devastating if even a small one hits somewhere important. Could make the worst natural disaster that mankind has ever witnessed.

By: Steve Waclo

Steve Waclo — Wed, 30 Jan 2013 17:35:13 +0000

While a large asteroid strike is statistically possible, I take great comfort in the record of geological time…nothing lately :-).

By: Bri

Bri — Wed, 30 Jan 2013 16:27:55 +0000

Such a nice size. There are probably quite a few asteroids of similiar size quizzing by the earth every year. We should try and catch one. It would give us a better understanding of how to deal with one that might hit us and also what it would take to tow and mine them.