KurzweilAI.net,
Feb. 20, 2003
MONTEREY, CA -- We will have complete genomic maps for many thousands of species by 2010, according to Richard Dawkins, Simonyi Professor for the Public Understanding of Science, Oxford University, speaking Wednesday night at TIME's "The Future of Life" conference.
Dawkins said he expected that we will have "complete genomic maps for many thousands of species by 2010." Shortly thereafter, "we should be able to put together the genome for the 'missing link' between humans and chimpanzees, or something very close, and actually bring the missing link back to life." He also speculated about bringing "Lucy" (a celebrated hominid fossil), or at least a close genetic clone of Lucy, to life. His goal: to kiss Lucy.
Jaron Lanier, Chief Scientist, Advanced Network and Services, Inc., and composer and visual artist, who coined the term "virtual reality," expressed his long-term fascination and love for cephalopods (e.g., octopi). He made the point that despite their separate line of evolution, "some structures evolved in a very similar manner to humans." Examples include their eyes and features of their brain, including a cerebellum. Other features evolved very differently. For example, they gave up their skeletal system. An octopus can squeeze its entire body through a small hole.
Trillion times increase in hardware and software by 2030
Commenting on progress in computer software, he said it's moving much more slowly than the rapid exponential pace of hardware (which is doubling every year or so). He proposed a different way of organizing software to keep up with hardware's enormous growth in power: rather than engineering each module with rigid functions and interfaces, we should build each module to communicate through a pattern-recognition paradigm with other modules, he said, pointing out that this is how biology works, and allows for softer edges to the overall competency of a very complex system.
Speaking on Thursday Morning, Bill Joy, Chief Scientist and Corporate Executive Officer, Sun Microsystems, said both hardware and software power are accelerating in their power. By 2010, we will see a 1,000 fold increase in the price-performance of hardware, as well as a 1,000 fold increase in the effectiveness of algorithms, he believes. A cellular simulation that takes a year of computation today will be able to be done in eight hours in 2010. This will allow "realistic simulations of cellular processes."
This will continue and by 2030, we will see another factor of one million in hardware as well as software (in comparison to 2010), for an overall improvement of one trillion. He provided some examples of ratios of one trillion to one to provide perspective on how profound this is. A speedup of one trillion to one would reduce the entire history of the universe to one week. It is the "ratio of the power of an atomic weapon to a match head" or the "ratio of Bill Gates' wealth to a nickel." These powers of computation and algorithmic sophistication will allow "modeling complex biological systems at the level of physics by 2030."
We need to consider today the impacts that these very powerful technologies will have in the future, he added. Some of the answers we will like, for example, far more powerful treatments for disease. Some of the answers we won't like, such as providing far more powerful weapons to terrorists, he concluded.
The Internet and multicellular life
Larry Smarr, Director, California Institute of Telecommunications and Information Technology, drew a comparison between the growth of the Internet and the original evolution of multicellular life. Evolution discovered that there were advantages to organizing what had been individual cells into networks of multicellular organisms, which greatly facilitated communication among cells to improve the survival of the cells. Shortly after multicellular life started, "nervous systems evolved to further improve intercellular communication."
Similarly, the Internet has hooked together what had been separate computers that can now share information over long distances, he pointed out. The growth of the Internet has many biological features and has been developing like a multicellular organism, including a nervous system.
He predicted that rather than designing systems as we largely do today, we will create systems that have the dynamic qualities of living systems. This was similar to point made by Lanier.
Smarr said we are beginning to understand the coding of genes and how they express themselves in metabolic networks. We are a long way, however, from truly understanding the flows of information in complex biological systems, he said.
The case for biotech optimism
Matt White Ridley, author, Genome: The Autobiography of a Species in 23 Chapters, interviewed on stage by Phil Elmer-Dewitt, Senior Science Editor, TIME magazine, presented "The Case for Optimism." He pointed out how often bad things predicted from bioscience keep failing to come to pass. Genetic engineering of microbes was thought to be dangerous, he said. GM of plants was thought to be bad for the environment yet it keeps being good for it.
Discussing the danger of a terrorist bioengineering a new pathogen, Ridley said it would be very difficult to create pathogens worse than those mother nature has already created.
Regarding human cloning, he said he was not against it in principle, but opposed it currently on safety grounds. The current cloning technology is not yet perfected and introduces genetic errors, which were evident in Dolly, who was recently euthanized, and in other cloned animals.
He discussed the European position against genetically modified foods. The Europeans feel there is nothing in it for consumers, only for big business, and in particular American big business, and there is a general distrust of big business. The opposition also reflects a European backlash against the intensification of corporate agriculture versus rural farms.
Ridley made the point that GM foods would help a return to small family farms. Large factory farms were created in part to help control pests, which is easier to do in large fields. However, GM foods allow far less pesticides to be used. This also helps the environment, the opposite of what the anti-GM movement has feared.
KurzweilAI.net article: The Future of Life
-- Ray Kurzweil
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