KurzweilAI.net,
May 20. 2004
"The fraction of value of products and services attributable to information technology is growing asymptotically [in a steep curve] and will ultimately approach 100 percent," Ray Kurzweil said in a keynote speech at the Eighth Annual Microsoft CEO Summit: Transforming Information Into Impact on May 20, following Bill Gates' keynote.
The event brought together more than 100 top international business leaders to address the role of software in helping organizations realize gains in productivity, quality and cost savings.
"The amazing advances in technology we're now seeing will empower information workers and transform productivity around the world," Gates said. "This innovation will open up exciting new opportunities for every business -- truly enabling them to transform information into impact."
Offering an example of this impact, Kurzweil forecasted that "Once we have full nanotechnology-based manufacturing, virtually all physical products will have their value primarily attributable to information. We're not that far from that today (even without nanotech). The price-performance of all information technologies -- hardware and software -- doubles about every year, so that means 50% deflation (the same information/capability costs 50% less a year later)."
This trend reflects Kurzweil's "Law of Accelerating Returns." The paradigm shift rate is now doubling every decade, so the 21st century will see 20,000 years of progress at today's rate, he said. "Computation, communication, biological technologies (for example, DNA sequencing), brain scanning, knowledge of the human brain, and human knowledge in general are all accelerating at an even faster pace, generally doubling price-performance, capacity, and bandwidth every year.
"Once nonbiological intelligence matches the range and subtlety of human intelligence, it will necessarily soar past it because of the continuing acceleration of information-based technologies, as well as the ability of machines to instantly share their knowledge."
The Microsoft CEO Summit, established in 1997 in response to growing interest in the convergence of technology and business issues among corporate CEOs, is considered one of the most important gatherings of global business leaders, second only to the World Economic Forum.
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