The Microsoft cofounder and a colleague say the Singularity is a long way off.

Their main issue: the “complexity brake. As we go deeper and deeper in our understanding of natural systems, we typically find that we require more and more specialized knowledge to characterize them, and we are forced to continuously expand our scientific theories in more and more complex ways…. Without having a scientifically deep understanding of cognition, we can’t create the software that could spark the singularity.”