Peak Oil Theory faulty: CERA report

November 16, 2006 | Source: KurzweilAI

In contrast to a widely discussed theory that world oil production will soon reach a peak and go into sharp decline, a new report by Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) finds that the remaining global oil resource base is actually 3.74 trillion barrels — three times as large as the 1.2 trillion barrels estimated by the theory’s proponents — and that the “peak oil” argument is based on faulty analysis which could, if accepted, distort critical policy and investment decisions and cloud the debate over the energy future.

Global production will eventually follow an “undulating plateau” for one or more decades before declining slowly, CERA believes.

Source: Cambridge Energy Research Associates

Source: Cambridge Energy Research Associates

The global production profile will not be a simple logistic or bell curve postulated by geologist M. King Hubbert, but it will be asymmetrical — with the slope of decline more gradual and not mirroring the rapid rate of increase — and strongly skewed past the geometric peak. It will be an undulating plateau that may well last for decades.