Self-driving cars in 2019, report says
August 23, 2012
Advanced Driver Assist Systems (ADAS), use a combination of advanced sensors, such as stereo cameras and long- and short-range RADAR, combined with actuators, control units, and integrating software, to enable cars to monitor and respond to their surroundings (credit: KPMG, Center for Automotive Research)
Autonomous cars will be in showrooms as early as 2019, or maybe even sooner, according to a report released by KPMG and the Center for Automotive Research,
The report’s authors explain that “sensor-based technologies” and “connected-vehicle communications” need to converge. Essentially, cars need to be able to communicate with other vehicles on the road so they don’t bash into each other.
They also need the ability to sense and respond to the surrounding infrastructure: stop signs, street lights, guardrails, and many other basic transportation signals.
Comments (24)
by Julio
A key benefit will be the additional years of independence and mobility that this technno;gy will probide to the elderly. Millions of people that are today considered too old to drive will gain huge control over their daily activities and choice of destinations. The improvement in the quality of living will be substatial.
by Aasim
This is great news for someone with more than a few traffic tickets! Hopefully, insurance rates and other costs of driving can be reduced.
Truckers, bus drivers, and taxi drivers will be gone soon. That will save businesses millions of $$$ and make commerce faster and more efficient. At the same time, there goes millions of jobs….
by Kennita
Which do you think will be the first “autonomous vehicles only” road or munivial zone? Carpool lanes currently are for vehicles with two or more occupants — when/will there be similar “autonomous” lanes — or will they share?
by GVS
This is the real answer to using cell phones in the car. We are already too distracted to drive – we have more important things to do, like texting gossip.
by Cybernettr
That rear-end collision avoidance system is great, and would be a relatively easy to implement feature while we’re waiting for fully autonomous vehicles. Even those of us who couldn’t afford it at first would still benefit from it in the form of fewer rear end injuries from other drivers.
by Dan Kane
I’m looking forward the cost savings that this will provide for virtually everything that has mass by elminating the need for millions of truck and delivery drivers. Time to start retraining …
by beppe
When all the vehicles will be self-driving, their life will be much easier than for google’s car, which is built to be the only one among cars driven by unpredictable people
by scotty
Ive dreamed of this for at least 40 years! safety yes! but this would probally require sensors along the highway also. sounds expensive to really “take off”.
by Erik
“Essentially, cars need to be able to communicate with other vehicles on the road so they don’t bash into each other.”
No they don’t. All they have to do is build a 3D model of how the world looks like and then avoid the obstacles, like every car game AI already does.
That part is not rocket science
What’s tricky is to build a system that can recognize traffic signs, know how to behave when there are accidents, traffic jams etc. Basically have common sense.
by dbamford
No, 3D modeling of an ever-changing world is too resource intensive. There are only two requirements:
1) Broadcast the car’s own position and motion to others.
2) Detect terrain/objects outside the vehicle in real-time.
Bringing a vehicle to a full stop (heck, even a slower collision speed) in an emergency situation would result in the near elimination of all motor vehicle fatalities. Not accidents or injuries even, but fatalities. It would go a long way toward dampening the first two as well.
by joeatiyah
Googles car does build a 3d model of its dynamic surroundings, that bit has been solved. But inter car communication is still needed to do things like optimise 4 way junctions, pass on info on traffic density and jams, and indicate unusual movements. Still should all be possible in fairly near future.
by Ebony
Hahahaha. I’m not too bihrgt today. Great post!
by Michael E. Arth
Self-driving vehicles won’t cost any more than regular cars and most people will stop buying cars because you will be able to get the kind of car you want when you want it, for a fraction of the cost of ownership. Robot cars will be electric and they’ll plug themselves in as needed. We can get rid of most parking garages, on-street parking and a lot of the crud that goes with our automobile dominated society. Fatalities, injuries and the costs associated with crashes will drop to nearly zero. Anyone insisted on doing their own driving may do so, but the car’s computer will overrule errant movements.
It will all be here soon, thanks to the law of accelerating returns.
Michael E. Arth
by Bri
Not own your own car? Americans are in love with cars. I can’t see that going away any time too soon.
by Rich
Actually, Americans are falling out of love with cars. This can be seen in falling NASCAR attendance and TV ratings. The younger generation in particular is more interested in tech toys than in cars.
by DC
Michael, you have hit it on the head. Autonomous taxi cabs will be far cheaper than owning your own car. I am ready yesterday.
by silentrage
It just feels someone wants to tack V2V onto self-driving cars for the regulatory capability, and not much else. Google’s self-driving car is already performing flawlessly, and it didn’t need other cars to tell it where they are.
The example they gave about the ball and child is makes it even more farcical.
by tim the realist
it’s just another backup system to add reliability. if one system disagrees significantly with the other on where vehicles are positionally located then the system can sound an alert and recommended the driver take over control.
by SpottedMarley
i just had a premonition of the future where “manual” or “unassisted” conveyance on public roads will require a special license to do so.
not soon, obviously, but this is the logical evolution of transportation .. assuming we continue to use personal vehicles to move around.
when machines become perfect at driving, no crashes and reduced traffic congestion, trusting a fallible human behind the wheel will seem like an absurdity to our great great grandchildren.
by Bri
Like autopilot in airplanes today, you will still need to know how to drive, in case something goes wrong. To Gordon. It will cost far less than some of the toys on cars today. Seven years is a lot of time to reduce manufacturing costs. What did you say about that full spectrum solar cell manufacturing tech?
by Gorden Russell
This is very exciting news for a tired old New York man with a grandchild in Florida. But how much more will these cars cost? Aye, there’s the rub.
by Roland
My guess is that it will be cheaper than airco. I don’t know what the USA is like but in Holland the less polluting a car is the cheaper it is to buy and drive, tax wise.
To give you an example. A basic Ford F-150 will set you back around $65000, most of this is tax, based on the weight of the car. The annual tax to be paid is $2900. A Suzuki Alto costs $9000 and there is only a sales tax of 19% no annual taxes at all, and with fuel right know at $8.35 per gallon people choose what they need more than what they want.
I would imagine that governments would implement similar stimuli to buy self driving cars when they become available. That combined with VERY steep rises in insurance for people who want to keep driving their own car will remove the old style cars from the road in a few years.
by james
Heaps at first, and then costs will rapidly fall. 10 years later you will be able to buy an ‘autonomous driving module’ for your car for 100 bucks. By then, it may well be mandatory.
by tim the realist
the savings is significantly reduced collisions and the associated $ and human misery costs