Comments on: Single-atom transistor is ‘end of Moore’s Law’ and ‘beginning of quantum computing’ http://www.kurzweilai.net/single-atom-transistor-is-end-of-moores-law-and-beginning-of-quantum-computing Accelerating Intelligence Fri, 24 May 2013 23:30:29 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.4.1 By: Editor http://www.kurzweilai.net/single-atom-transistor-is-end-of-moores-law-and-beginning-of-quantum-computing/comment-page-1#comment-86756 Editor Sun, 13 Jan 2013 21:56:34 +0000 http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=142557#comment-86756 "Moore's law" is a business model for the semiconductor industry (not a "law" in the science sense and it's a self-fulfilling forecast), so the meaning of "Moore's law" is defined by that industry, especially by Intel. Intel says their 3D tri-gate silicon transistor is an example of Moore's law, as noted here: http://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/history/history-moores-law-fun-facts-factsheet.html. “Moore’s law” is a business model for the semiconductor industry (not a “law” in the science sense and it’s a self-fulfilling forecast), so the meaning of “Moore’s law” is defined by that industry, especially by Intel. Intel says their 3D tri-gate silicon transistor is an example of Moore’s law, as noted here:
http://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/history/history-moores-law-fun-facts-factsheet.html.

]]> By: Hero http://www.kurzweilai.net/single-atom-transistor-is-end-of-moores-law-and-beginning-of-quantum-computing/comment-page-1#comment-86746 Hero Sun, 13 Jan 2013 21:04:04 +0000 http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=142557#comment-86746 Moore's Law is limited by the a two dimentional plane though is it not? Any three dimentional innovations in spatial assortment of components wouldn't apply to his law necessarily, although they'd still be quite relevant. Moore’s Law is limited by the a two dimentional plane though is it not? Any three dimentional innovations in spatial assortment of components wouldn’t apply to his law necessarily, although they’d still be quite relevant.

]]> By: Jori van Dam http://www.kurzweilai.net/single-atom-transistor-is-end-of-moores-law-and-beginning-of-quantum-computing/comment-page-1#comment-66714 Jori van Dam Mon, 10 Dec 2012 13:36:16 +0000 http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=142557#comment-66714 Moore states that the amount of transistor per mm2 doubles every 18 months so enlarging the chip is not a argument. Increasing transistor density IS possible but it has limitations. Moore also said that there will be limitations to his own law. In his 1965 article he predicted that the trend would last for at least 10 years. Moore states that the amount of transistor per mm2 doubles every 18 months so enlarging the chip is not a argument. Increasing transistor density IS possible but it has limitations. Moore also said that there will be limitations to his own law. In his 1965 article he predicted that the trend would last for at least 10 years.

]]> By: Anon http://www.kurzweilai.net/single-atom-transistor-is-end-of-moores-law-and-beginning-of-quantum-computing/comment-page-1#comment-9862 Anon Thu, 08 Mar 2012 13:43:10 +0000 http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=142557#comment-9862 Not necessarily the end of Moore's law, as Moore's law only states that transistor count will double every 18 months, which can be achieved with other means, eg increasing transistor density or enlargeing the chip. Not necessarily the end of Moore’s law, as Moore’s law only states that transistor count will double every 18 months, which can be achieved with other means, eg increasing transistor density or enlargeing the chip.

]]> By: Dirk Bruere http://www.kurzweilai.net/single-atom-transistor-is-end-of-moores-law-and-beginning-of-quantum-computing/comment-page-1#comment-8960 Dirk Bruere Fri, 24 Feb 2012 14:28:30 +0000 http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=142557#comment-8960 Not the end of Moore's law at all, not if computing substrate increases in area and goes 3D at the same time. Not the end of Moore’s law at all, not if computing substrate increases in area and goes 3D at the same time.

]]> By: Mentalyptis http://www.kurzweilai.net/single-atom-transistor-is-end-of-moores-law-and-beginning-of-quantum-computing/comment-page-1#comment-8933 Mentalyptis Thu, 23 Feb 2012 22:56:04 +0000 http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=142557#comment-8933 Looks like we can do no Moore. Looks like we can do no Moore.

]]> By: Dan Robinson http://www.kurzweilai.net/single-atom-transistor-is-end-of-moores-law-and-beginning-of-quantum-computing/comment-page-1#comment-8880 Dan Robinson Thu, 23 Feb 2012 01:17:57 +0000 http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=142557#comment-8880 That's a very funny looking "single phosphorous atom" shown in the picture. Must have a lot of peripheral stuff connected. So when will I be able to get a computer of proportionate size, perhaps that I can wear under my skin, powered with excess belly fat? That’s a very funny looking “single phosphorous atom” shown in the picture. Must have a lot of peripheral stuff connected. So when will I be able to get a computer of proportionate size, perhaps that I can wear under my skin, powered with excess belly fat?

]]> By: aaallison http://www.kurzweilai.net/single-atom-transistor-is-end-of-moores-law-and-beginning-of-quantum-computing/comment-page-1#comment-8836 aaallison Wed, 22 Feb 2012 16:43:39 +0000 http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=142557#comment-8836 A characteristic of a mirage is that it remains a fixed distance from the observer. By this definition, the end of Moore's Law, like "Peak Oil" is one that's been around for half a century! Gordon himself predicted that the limit was a quarter-million transistors LOL A characteristic of a mirage is that it remains a fixed distance from the observer. By this definition, the end of Moore’s Law, like “Peak Oil” is one that’s been around for half a century! Gordon himself predicted that the limit was a quarter-million transistors LOL

]]> By: Sean D http://www.kurzweilai.net/single-atom-transistor-is-end-of-moores-law-and-beginning-of-quantum-computing/comment-page-1#comment-8786 Sean D Wed, 22 Feb 2012 00:37:06 +0000 http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=142557#comment-8786 Just to clarify, but I believe 2020 was used in reference because according to Moore's Law/Kurzweil/futurists 2020 is the year associated with the physical limitations of silicon transistors as they can only be manufactured so small. This article, to me, means the heir to silicon is closer than we think so we won't be left scraping for its replacement come 2020. Of course, there are still articles on major breakthroughs in graphene transistors, so it's quite possible graphene is the more viable option going forward as a result of the very strict temperature limitations on this particular innovation. Just to clarify, but I believe 2020 was used in reference because according to Moore’s Law/Kurzweil/futurists 2020 is the year associated with the physical limitations of silicon transistors as they can only be manufactured so small. This article, to me, means the heir to silicon is closer than we think so we won’t be left scraping for its replacement come 2020.

Of course, there are still articles on major breakthroughs in graphene transistors, so it’s quite possible graphene is the more viable option going forward as a result of the very strict temperature limitations on this particular innovation.

]]> By: john http://www.kurzweilai.net/single-atom-transistor-is-end-of-moores-law-and-beginning-of-quantum-computing/comment-page-1#comment-8771 john Tue, 21 Feb 2012 20:47:44 +0000 http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=142557#comment-8771 true. ..and that pesky temp limit will be a problem for some time to come. still, its a "quantum leap" (sorry, i had to) forward from current tech. true.
..and that pesky temp limit will be a problem for some time to come.

still, its a “quantum leap” (sorry, i had to) forward from current tech.

]]> By: tim the realist http://www.kurzweilai.net/single-atom-transistor-is-end-of-moores-law-and-beginning-of-quantum-computing/comment-page-1#comment-8727 tim the realist Mon, 20 Feb 2012 22:07:14 +0000 http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=142557#comment-8727 the size at .1nm for the phosphoous atom does not correlate to the size of the the transistor or directly to the logic gate size. You need wires to get data in and out and plenty of addditional separation to prevent crosstalk between the transistor / wires and neighbors. the size at .1nm for the phosphoous atom does not correlate to the size of the the transistor or directly to the logic gate size. You need wires to get data in and out and plenty of addditional separation to prevent crosstalk between the transistor / wires and neighbors.

]]> By: Steven Roth http://www.kurzweilai.net/single-atom-transistor-is-end-of-moores-law-and-beginning-of-quantum-computing/comment-page-1#comment-8711 Steven Roth Mon, 20 Feb 2012 17:00:25 +0000 http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=142557#comment-8711 Too bad these things are 8-10 years away. I wish they'd start making them ASAP!! I would love Mr. Kurzweil's opionion of D Wave "quantum computers" and whether Lockheed Martin got their money's worth when they purchased one of D Wave's computers for 10 million dollars. Too bad these things are 8-10 years away. I wish they’d start making them ASAP!! I would love Mr. Kurzweil’s opionion of D Wave “quantum computers” and whether Lockheed Martin got their money’s worth when they purchased one of D Wave’s computers for 10 million dollars.

]]> By: Editor http://www.kurzweilai.net/single-atom-transistor-is-end-of-moores-law-and-beginning-of-quantum-computing/comment-page-1#comment-8710 Editor Mon, 20 Feb 2012 16:57:46 +0000 http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=142557#comment-8710 Nyc, apparently Prof. Michelle Simmons is saying ~2020. We'll need more information before we can evaluate that claim. Nyc, apparently Prof. Michelle Simmons is saying ~2020. We’ll need more information before we can evaluate that claim.

]]> By: Editor http://www.kurzweilai.net/single-atom-transistor-is-end-of-moores-law-and-beginning-of-quantum-computing/comment-page-1#comment-8709 Editor Mon, 20 Feb 2012 16:54:05 +0000 http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=142557#comment-8709 Atmic: A good question. It's premature to say if this technology will work in practice, but note that the ITRS roadmap puts a 7 nm gate at 2024, so a leap to .1 nm (whatever the actual gate dimension is) by 2020 (their estimate) looks impressive. Based on your question, I just added this statement from the video to the news item: According to University of New South Wales Prof. Michelle Simmons, "We made a single-atom transistor roughly 8 to 10 years ahead of where the industry's going to be," consistent with Moore's law, in 2020. Atmic: A good question. It’s premature to say if this technology will work in practice, but note that the ITRS roadmap puts a 7 nm gate at 2024, so a leap to .1 nm (whatever the actual gate dimension is) by 2020 (their estimate) looks impressive. Based on your question, I just added this statement from the video to the news item:

According to University of New South Wales Prof. Michelle Simmons, “We made a single-atom transistor roughly 8 to 10 years ahead of where the industry’s going to be,” consistent with Moore’s law, in 2020.

]]> By: Nyc Labretš http://www.kurzweilai.net/single-atom-transistor-is-end-of-moores-law-and-beginning-of-quantum-computing/comment-page-1#comment-8708 Nyc Labretš Mon, 20 Feb 2012 16:15:47 +0000 http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=142557#comment-8708 Well, at least now, (even with that whole, 'Won't really work unless we keep things chilled to -196° Celsius' issue), we have a decent End Point from which to work back from. Anybody taking bets or laying odds as to which year between now and the year 2032 that this tech becomes commercially viable? Well, at least now, (even with that whole, ‘Won’t really work unless we keep things chilled to -196° Celsius’ issue), we have a decent End Point from which to work back from.

Anybody taking bets or laying odds as to which year between now and the year 2032 that this tech becomes commercially viable?

]]> By: Atmic http://www.kurzweilai.net/single-atom-transistor-is-end-of-moores-law-and-beginning-of-quantum-computing/comment-page-1#comment-8707 Atmic Mon, 20 Feb 2012 15:52:53 +0000 http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=142557#comment-8707 Is this as big evidence of acceleration as the USB Gene Sequencer was just a little bit ago? Or is it more mundane with respects to jumping ahead of projections? Is this as big evidence of acceleration as the USB Gene Sequencer was just a little bit ago? Or is it more mundane with respects to jumping ahead of projections?

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