TechCrunch | Get ready to lose your job
February 16, 2013
Source: TechCrunch — February 16, 2013 | Jon Evans
For 50 years now Moore’s Law has been (to oversimplify) doubling computing power every two years. People like Ray Kurzweil and Vernor Vinge look at that astonishing history of nonstop exponential growth and predict a technological singularity within our lifetimes.
Kurzweil claims that whenever technology hits a limit, “a paradigm shift (i.e., a fundamental change in the approach) occurs, which enables exponential growth to continue.” That’s not much more than a convenient article of faith. As Peter Thiel points out, “technological progress has fallen short in many domains. Consider the most literal instance of non-acceleration: We are no longer moving faster. The centuries-long acceleration of travel speeds … reversed with the decommissioning of the Concorde in 2003.” [...]
Comments (12)
by Bri
Tre Bon LME!
by Bri
“Me too” in reference to the LME comment. As to the revolution, who do you think is orchestrating it? They know it is only a question of time till they lose power. On many fronts they are creating unrest so that they may clear the field. The rhetoric of conflict will escalate till marshal law is imposed. They are protecting their power base for when the financial system collapses, which is inevitable.
by Boristabby
Bri ,,,,,,,, this is all a many splendored thing …I’ve gotta think some more about this and will check in again at a later time.
considerations:
1. Stock market up, wages and jobs down, who loses? Gun owners?
2. Mind control via organized religion, fading but still formidable. Or too late?
3. Assault weapons rampant, marshall law even possible? Troops still in over 150 countries world wide.
4. Recent two day gun show here in SLC sold out two semi’s of ammo.
(I am not among the gunners …. should I be?)
by Bri
I wouldn’t waste my time with the guns. You see where tech is going. The US gov is making the first itineration of smart dust. Drones can watch you from miles away. You might as well wear a big target on your forehead. Work toward peace and understanding. Through understanding the opposing forces become one.
by Boristabby
LME, you are not just a pretty face … bravo and well done .. I recall a retro visit by Kirk and Spock who were amazed to find our society was still using money.
But will it take a Les Miz type revolution to rid us of those “troublesome priests” of high finance?
by kevin hastings
tre bon.x
by Anne Marie Tobias
“Anything that can be put in a nutshell should remain there” – Bernard Russell
by Dan Judd
Hmm – now try and sum that up short enough for a twitter comment – I rest my case
by LME
Other than a reference to Thiel’s snarky, beside the point comment, and a dreary view of the world a decade or two hence, this article (3 weeks old now) does ultimately seem to be saying something important about the ramifications of accelerating intelligence. I think the author’s dreary view is a consequence of not accepting that Collaboration will be necessary, if our civilization is to survive the phase transition (material to information) that is upon us. The Competitive model, in which resources are scarce and insufficient and must be “worked for” in “jobs” will simply make less and less sense as technology and intelligence continue to accelerate. A civilization built on that Competitive paradigm, seeing the world as material stuff but not as information, will eventually destroy its environment and itself (think Cloud Atlas) the way we seem to be in danger of destroying our world even as we understand it better and better.
The reason for sharing knowledge, using open source, creating the creative commons, and nurturing all the openness of communication in our age is that this is how we can solve the problem of billions and billions of people living on the Earth in relative peace and security (and perhaps expanding our civilization beyond the planet). The dreary future the author of this piece contemplates is the result of trying to keep on in the old paradigm when we have the intelligence to go forward in a way that is better suited to our expanded understanding of reality. To continue on in the Competitive paradigm becomes a prescription for ever more unequal distribution of wealth and increasing social instability, environmental and food chain pollution, and ultimately dystopia or worse.
I have come to think that, given our understanding of accelerating intelligence, the way to accomplish a civilization paradigm shift from Competition to Collaboration might really only come down to doing what enables greater and greater communication, more openness, sharing of ideas and creativity, and all the other kinds of information flow that we ultimately call sharing. I am not appealing to a concept of “good,” only asserting that constricting information and communication flow (as is usually the basis for profit in the personal and social realms of the competition paradigm) is not a way to solve the problems of our age and allow our civilization to continue to flourish. Engaging the creativity and processing power of a connected world is what we need to be able to accomplish the trick of civilization metamorphosis and survival. This is where we can merge with our technology, rather than compete with it for work.
Hope this ramble makes sense to someone besides me as I post it as a comment on this article.
by SmartAndSober
Well said, LME.
by Coin Toss
Thank-you for your clarity & insight LME!
by Gabriel
What a wonderful post LME, I really enjoyed reading it :)