Comments on: The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don’t http://www.kurzweilai.net/the-signal-and-the-noise-why-so-many-predictions-fail-but-some-dont Accelerating Intelligence Mon, 20 May 2013 02:04:06 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.4.1 By: Gabriel http://www.kurzweilai.net/the-signal-and-the-noise-why-so-many-predictions-fail-but-some-dont/comment-page-1#comment-67145 Gabriel Tue, 11 Dec 2012 05:14:43 +0000 http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=172278#comment-67145 Hmm, I wonder what Silver thinks of Kurzweil or if he's mentioned in this book at all. Hmm, I wonder what Silver thinks of Kurzweil or if he’s mentioned in this book at all.

]]> By: carmel M Toussaint http://www.kurzweilai.net/the-signal-and-the-noise-why-so-many-predictions-fail-but-some-dont/comment-page-1#comment-67025 carmel M Toussaint Tue, 11 Dec 2012 00:45:07 +0000 http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=172278#comment-67025 I haven't read the book yet and I really look forward to do so during the holiday season.In the above abstract, I particular like the "predictions paradox" concept and the acceptation of our limited ability to make predictions.Some years ago Slovic, Finucane...(When Predictions Fail:The Dilemma of Unrealistic Optimism) submitted that humans are better at predicting trends than future events.This was supported by Michael Anissimov in his essay on the The Future Shock Level Analysis with the argument that "humans have few innate mental tools for analyzing the plausibility of or impact events more than a few months distant". Nevertheless,computer,statistical sciences are more advanced today than 8 to 10 years, I look forward to reading Nate Silver's approach to predictions. I haven’t read the book yet and I really look forward to do so during the holiday season.In the above abstract, I particular like the “predictions paradox” concept and the acceptation of our limited ability to make predictions.Some years ago Slovic, Finucane…(When Predictions Fail:The Dilemma of Unrealistic Optimism) submitted that humans are better at predicting trends than future events.This was supported by Michael Anissimov in his essay on the The Future Shock Level Analysis with the argument that “humans have few innate mental tools for analyzing the plausibility of or impact events more than a few months distant”. Nevertheless,computer,statistical sciences are more advanced today than 8 to 10 years, I look forward to reading Nate Silver’s approach to predictions.

]]> By: Marcos Marin http://www.kurzweilai.net/the-signal-and-the-noise-why-so-many-predictions-fail-but-some-dont/comment-page-1#comment-57345 Marcos Marin Tue, 27 Nov 2012 15:46:35 +0000 http://www.kurzweilai.net/?p=172278#comment-57345 Alternative title: "The Signal and the Noise: Why Can a Broken Clock be Right-Twice a Day" Alternative title:

“The Signal and the Noise: Why Can a Broken Clock be Right-Twice a Day”

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