This robot could transform manufacturing
September 19, 2012
Baxter (credit: Rethink Robotics)
Baxter, is six feet tall, 300 pounds, and a robot. It could bring automation to new areas of manual work and help many U.S. manufacturers regain a competitive edge, Technology Review reports.
Almost anyone, literally, can in very short order be shown how to program it,” says Chris Budnick, president of Vanguard Plastics. “It’s a matter of a couple of minutes.”
Baxter is the first of a new generation of smarter, more adaptive industrial robots. Conventional industrial robots are expensive to program, incapable of handling even small deviations in their environment, and so dangerous that they have to be physically separated from human workers by cages.
So even as robotics have become commonplace in the automotive and pharmaceutical industries, they remain impractical in many other types of manufacturing.
Baxter, however, can be programmed more easily than a Tivo and can deftly respond to a toppled-over part or shifted table. And it is so safe that Baxter’s developer, Rethink Robotics, which loaned Baxter to Vanguard Plastics, believes it can work seamlessly alongside its human coworkers.
Recovering lost jobs and improving competition
Baxter’s talents could, for the first time, bring the benefits of robotics and automation to areas of work where it never made sense before. This might mean lost jobs for an already struggling low-skill workforce. But it could also help the United States compete in the global manufacturing market against countries that offer low-wage labor.
The International Federation of Robotics estimates that there are now 1.1 million working robots around the world.
Some fear that overcoming those obstacles could cost human jobs. But Rethink Robotics founder and AI expert Rodney Brooks doesn’t agree says Baxter is designed to make human workers more efficient, not to replace them. “An electric drill makes a home contractor more productive,” he says. “Should we ban electric drills so there are more jobs for home contractors? You ask any home contractor that.”
Boosting the efficiency of small manufacturers could help fuel the economy and drive job creation. By shifting the balance away from low-cost human labor, Baxter and similar robots could perhaps also make manufacturers in the United States and Europe more competitive with their counterparts in Asia.
Comments (79)
by martinandsusie
This was an interesting article. It also illicited some very interesting comments. What was interesting to me the most was how casually the authors of the article dismissed the “already struggling low-skill workforce”. And then tried to defend themselves by comparing his robot with an electric drill. As if the robot was an irreplacable tool the carpenter can’t do without.
So what is the “already struggling low-skill workforce” supposed to do? These are not just numbers or a very interesting name we put to this class, these are PEOPLE. People who have families to support, childrens mouths to feed, put a roof over thier head. People. They matter. They deserve our considertion if not our compassion. And it’s not just the lower class we have to think about any longer, it’s also the professional class that are now being hit.
These robots are fine if, and ONLY if, we retrain those people whose job(s) the robots have taken. I’m all for making american companies globally competitive, but lets do it responsibly, not forgetting that it’a people’s lives that hang in the balance
by Mr.X
This kind of elitism is not unusual for the self-proclaimed “elites”.
What do you think, how many people in these fields have a lower class background?They can’t really, despite what they may think, relate to us (me and others).
One obvious solution would be to grant anyone enough to live when productivity skyrockets, as long as our economical systems will resemble that of today, and then later on this all may become irrelevant anyway.
But many would shun this option because they deem it socialistic.
by Bri
Again I ask, even beg for someone to tell me a job that they think robots won’t take away in the very near future, that someone can be retrained for. AI is just around the corner and will out compete us at it too.
by GatorALLin
Thought this ted.com video on the subject was worth watching…
http://www.ted.com/talks/andrew_mcafee_are_droids_taking_our_jobs.html
by PedroC.
“Greed is good”
I don’t think the economical and political situation is being fully included in the visions of a rosy future thanks to AI.
We’re living in the end times of an economic system which has reached its limits. The existing elite will not give up their entitlements without a fight. Power only recognizes power.
The reason we’re getting these wonderful advances in technology is because technological progress has embedded meme-like into our very core (otherwise the 0.1% would be actively halting any developments, since they will eventually lead to a change in the status quo).
People here talk about Utopian scenarios where there won’t be any need for jobs and all the Age of Abundance mantra (which I really hope comes to happen). That is but ONE of many possible outcomes from the present crisis.
Once the people who run this game find out that these technologies will be able to empower the rest of the humanity, they will actively try to oppose them. And they might win.
Just remember that there was the promise of Golden Age Greece and then centuries of Dark Ages. Not all change is for the better.
by Bri
When I write about the final outcome, I’m not neglecting the issues you outline. Forbes list of the richest people very clearly shows that the top one percent are wining, so to speak. Despite the hardships that the rest of society is experiencing, they have grown by leaps and bounds. 1.7 trillion dollars have gone into their pockets. Their pundits proclaim in their propaganda, that they need tax breaks so that they will invest in the economy, but they don’t need to do that. They are already having a party raping and pillaging the lower classes. I’m very aware of what they are up to. I still feel, for my own reasons that this story will have a much more happy ending than you might think. There are other unseen forces at work. I have been aware of them since I was about four years old. Watch the mitosis of a cell. A similar process is underway. I know it may seem a litle too fantastic, but this is an eventuality that could have been predicted when the first biological precursors came together to form life. It’s kind of like a fruiting body on fungus. A flowering as it were. It may seem chaotic and nothing Is guarenteed in life, but from what I see it will work out. It will get really bad for awhile. Like in the cell analogy, normal business will come to a halt, but then, something else.
by JC
“Once the people who run this game find out that these technologies will be able to empower the rest of the humanity, they will actively try to oppose them.” They know the key technology that is the effective choke point: ENERGY. Until we get truly easy, distributed energy production, the .1% is in the pilot seat. The errant community has its electricity cut off, the errant country doesn’t get shipped any heating oil, for example. Available Information technology has skyrocketed, but without an equal growth in personally available energy creation humanity will remain a largely shackled global workforce.
by PedroC.
Indeed, that is the key. He who controls the energy controls the world.
Also, as you point out, the more ‘personal (movable/affordable)’ the energy source, the less the elite can exert their power over it.
by alliwant
I have to wonder when we will realize that technologies that make everything we need very cheap and easy to obtain will make greed obsolete. It may take quite a while, a few decades or more, but the clock is ticking on the utility of greed. In the absence of any prospect of need, greed is insane, which will cause most people to renounce greed. Greed is the only reason to starve the needy in the midst of vast abundance. This might be the biggest positive to come out of the disruptions we will soon face.
by Gabriel
Indeed – Abundance makes greed obsolete, and we are moving further and further into an age of it.
by Mr.X
Greed will be there, unless we work quite literally on ourselves.
by Gabriel
Desire is insatiable, yes…but I do believe you get to a point where your needs are so satisfied that it becomes harder and harder to become greedy — the more you have, the harder and harder it is to want more.
Sure, I suppose for some people it’s never truly enough, but for these, the problem is more themselves then any lack of actually not having ‘enough’….again, the more you have, the harder it is to justify that you don’t have enough.
Of course, a little more appreciation for what you have, regardless of what it is, also goes a long way.
by Bri
What the movie Born Rich by one of the Johnson and Johnson heirs. It’s a good study in what happens when you have too much. Maslov’s heiarchy of needs still underlies everything, but your ability to relate to people gets distorted, because some hungers can’t be fulfilled with all the money in the world.
by martinandsusie
Abundance!?! Try telling that to the more than half a BILLION people who don’t know if they will eat today,or the growing number of people who are becoming homeless. Abundance… maybe for the middle or upper classes, not for anybody else.
by Gabriel
Why don’t you try reading the latest book by Peter Diamandis, the books from Kurzweil and other related material, and you’ll get an understanding of what I meant :)
by anthrobotic
It’s excellent to see this coming along and the effect machines like Baxter could have on industry are quite intriguing – and it’s not just here at home. Foxconn has plans to implement as many as 1 million manufacturing robots in the next three years (http://goo.gl/Tq6bX). In conjunction, the rise of 3D printing could lead to some serious repatriation of manufacturing jobs in the U.S. – even if those jobs are in replicator & robot support and maintenance. Oh, and for that 3D printing, we can now 3D-scan stuff with an iPhone (http://goo.gl/tW3fZ).
-Reno at Anthrobotic.com
by S patrick l
There is not a fininite amount of work in the “world economic system”, if demand for a service or good disappears then the ” free workcapacity” will be used as an input in an other service or good which productionprocess has not yet been automatized. People ofcourse worry about labour which has obsolete skillset and are not fast enough to retrain and the social burden of ” loss of face” towards ones social milieu, but a social system that helps labour with the inevitable “transition” period will reduce the pain considerably. Remainder is that almost 50% of living humans in western society is not working! But still seem to beable to survive. Conclusion: shortterm extensive social redistribution without killing of innovation. Long term merge bio with machine intelligence. If we are the AI “the software” we are also the program. And the program will not replace ( although ofcourse replicate) itself since survival is the outmost prority in an evolutionary context.
by Gianluca
I see so many people (and politicians) focusing on “jobs”. On the long run jobs surviving in the future are going to be way too few to allow even half the population to live by them (I guess we have already begun to see the writings on the wall). That’s why the focus should shift from “jobs” to “income”. Noone seems able to think about income decoupling it from a job, but perhaps we should start doing it, because in the future there won’t be enough consumers for the economic system to stand on its feet by this rate, no matter how knowledgable and flexible the workers will be.
by Conrad Green
More than likely income will become obsolete. Exploration and scientific study will be the main focus. We really need our robotic companions to figure out tera forming. That way we don’t overpopulate and kill our planet of origin.
by Bri
Truthfully, almost nobody realizes what’s about to happen. I think AI will couple with robots in about ten years. The ground work has already been laid for it to explosively evolve. If it were to be developed tomorrow, it’s inherent speed would allow it to access information and synthesize novel understandings at blinding speeds. Looking ten years out, the power of computers will make it almost incomprehensibly fast. As I’ve said before, look at what tiny tree spiders can do. There just isn’t that many neurons in that brain. The secrets of intelligence are going to be more basic than we think. We are a little too in awe of human brain complexity. Take that basic circuit and multiply it by the hardware of the day and they will become geniuses times ten fold. Our old mammalian behaviors are recalcitrant. So from about ten years to twenty years, the advances in science and manufacturing will happen far faster than we can follow. They will take the jobs of robot designers and make factories that make more robots for every niche that is necessary for the functioning of society. Ray alludes to this, but reasons that we will upgrade in tandem. Unless we get ride of ouramilian brain, every aspect of our biology will slow us down, where as they can think 24/7. So my belief is that as soon as we have true AI, it should take around ten years for them to destabilize our economy. From there we crash. For them they won’t feel a thing. Every aspect of there design and production will be under their control. The one percent that own everything will think that they have it made. If we riot they have the legal right and the robots to quell the unrest. It can only be resolved when the impoverished masses, the one percent and the robotic AI come together. I think that should be around 2030. I peg the singularity as happening closer to 2040, because AI and robotics will be like rocket fuel on the rate of excellerating knowledge. In the 2030s there will be millions of super smart robots working on every problem and in total sync. In a similar way that our brains are plastic. They will be able to coordinate all those Einstein times ten minds to solve what ever issue they want so if I’m right it’s around the corner. If I’m not, just add ten years and it would happen in the 2040s. I’ve thought about submitting an Ask Ray if he thinks his time line is the same, or if he feels that the rate of acceleration of the rate of acceleration, that he has talked about is actually accelerating faster than what he th
by Bri
(Touched the wrong button) thought in 2006.
by Gabriel
Basically – your projections are practically the same as Kurzweil’s, right down to the Singularity happening in the 2040′s. Kurzweil thinks though that the economy will change earlier however — that by the 2020′s, and I quote: “By the late 2020s, nanotech-based manufacturing will be in widespread use, radically altering the economy as all sorts of products can suddenly be produced for a fraction of their traditional-manufacture costs. The true cost of any product is now the amount it takes to download the design schematics.”.
You are also the same, and I agree, that their won’t be any big conflicts in part because we will merge ourselves with them increasingly as time goes on — their won’t be an Us vs Them, only an Us, which is why their won’t be any big Terminator conflict as some think; their won’t be any huge WW3 because we will increasingly integrate with our tech just as we do now…their won’t be this big rift, and if we live in a world where people and AI’s are so united, it won’t be any easier for the AI’s. I wouldn’t say it’s foolproof, but it certainly helps our chances.
As for the people who don’t, I also don’t believe their will be this giant Luddite vs Everyone Else war….only radicals truly blind to the benefits that these new techs will bring would actually resort to killing and I’d like to think that’s a vast minority….as stressful as it will be for everyone, only a few who see what all this new tech could bring, including reversing aging, would actually refuse it….and for them, I believe they will be just as peaceful and minding-there-own-business as the Amish are today…do you hear of any such Amish conflicts or revolts due to the nature of tech today? What makes one think it will happen in the future? I understand how hard it is to have your world-view shaken, and for many people it will happen….but as you’ve said before to me Bri, their is such a thing as peaceful protest, and only radicals would truly resort to killing, and they only comprise a vast minority.
For them, actually, Kurzweil says they will have their needs fulfilled with personal AI’s who are ready to help them with virtually anything at all — so while it seems they will be on the fringe of society as everyone lives like gods, they will actually be quite taken care of until and unless they choose to take the next step or die a ‘normal’ life.
by melajara
@Bri “look at what tiny tree spiders can do. There just isn’t that many neurons in that brain. The secrets of intelligence are going to be more basic than we think”
Me too, I’m in awe contemplating the true power of tiny brains: the dance of the bees, the cooperation of the ants, the agility of a fly, the sweet spots found by a spider to wait for a prey and so on.
You are saying we are overestimating the true complexity of the human brain, on the other hand you could say (as some biologists do) we are grossly underestimating the power of a single neuron (in current brain building projects), in yet another example of engineering hubris and hype.
This could be tested if more work were put on emulating in silico whole insect brains, including the sensorium for realistic input and the effectors for action on the real world. But the crux is that for quite a while this has to be a crude simulation in interfacing with the real world as we don’t have the resources yet to make parts as efficient as insect’s sensors or legs, muscles and so on (albeit synthetic biology later should help here).
A third possibility is that considering the overwhelming power of evolution been exerciced on the insect realm for more than 400 million years (and doing so with several very stressful ecological catastrophes), the current insect’s brain, (given the scarce constraints it has to cope with), is much more optimized than the average mammal or even human brain.
Yet another very good reason, for core understanding or for bio-inspired robotics, to fully reverse engineer the tiny brains ;-)
by Snake Oil Baron
Once again engineers are threatening to steal the future of today’s kids who will never be able to fulfill their dreams of lifting, drilling, screwing and soldering identical objects continuously for hours at a time.
When will this madness end? Are we headed for a world where no one can get a job labouring on farms and in sweatshops because all food and manufactured goods and constructed buildings are produced too cheaply by robots and computers? Since the poor and uneducated are universally accepted to be incapable of providing any service or value to society beyond backbreaking labor and mind numbing repetition, they will all starve to death, naked in the streets while surrounded by vacant houses, mountains of food and piles of consumer goods. This prediction does not seem at all asinine to me.
by Gorden Russell
That’s exactly what the 1% will bring things to.
by Conrad Green
the main issue with the world is energy : reliable energy. If we had that I think we’d evolve pretty quickly.Don’t mean to go off topic. But the bus system is changing in my city. 11 cameras on every bus and train. I hear once google perfects there automated driving system the first thing it’s gonna replace is public transportation.
by Roger
Who will own the robot that does your job? You or your boss? I expect it will be a little of both capitalist & worker.
by Bri
Corporations will own the robots. If you buy a robot it will become obsolescent very quickly. A new arms race will start, as companies compete to improve efficiency. They can afford to invest in the best of the best, and recycle the rest.
by Qwerty Jones
[quote] Corporations will own the robots. [/quote]
There is nothing stopping you or I from buying shares in said corporations – or to be on the safe side – in hedge funds that invest in all or most of these corporations.
What I expect the government to do is prohibit or at least regulate “management” fees to make it easier for the small investors to buy shares without paying unreasonable admin fees.
by Bri
In the short term,I agree. Once the financial collapse starts the shock market won’t just take a dive, it will totally collapse. Look at the Rubics Cube article. It supports my premise that if AI were developed tomorrow, it wouldn’t just be equal to human intelligence, it would already surpass it. There is no way you will be able to retrainfst enough, in whatever job you have or want to have. Even if it doesn’t have a Watson 6.0 yet, it could store a job specific data base that would make the top human expert look like a rookie. In real Matrix fashion(eyes fluttering as a skill is down loaded) , ot could learn at a pace that is phisically impossible for a human. All jobs will go to them, which I support. Without humans making money, which will happen to every job, including CEO, our consumer based economy will collapse. All stocks will fall like a house of cards
by JFH
With what money do you propose people buy said shares. Money comes from jobs. Jobs are getting scarcer. More robots = less jobs. We are in uncharted territory here. The optimists see utopia on the horizon; for the realists (and pessimists) it looks alot like economic disaster (which we are already experiencing globally). When an increasing portion of the population has no buying power who is going to buy all these “cheap” goods. Cheap ain’t free. To me this is supply side economics taken to its logical (yet absurd) conclusion.
by melajara
“This might mean lost jobs for an already struggling low-skill workforce. But it could also help the United States compete in the global manufacturing market against countries that offer low-wage labor.”
This is illusory if really meant by Brooks & CO. But from such clever men more probably it’s just cynical informercial bullshit to promote their brand as China is already considering to replace its workforce by such robots (e.g. Foxconn among many others).
But in China, they don’t have the labor unions and they have cheaper production costs for the robot parts and the assembling of the robots themselves.
However, I’m not against this trend as it will promote an unprecedented technological competition in order to develop the most “productive” robot, i.e. the most versatile or the most intelligent one.
Then, at last, society will start to really think hard about the post (human) labor society.
by Bri
The costs of production will plummet for all countries. We already reduce the stock of productsin warehouses to reduce overhead. The time it takes to ship and cost to ship start to become significant factors. Not to mention obsolesense of merchandise. Most companies have to liquidate old stock. You can’t just idle a factory of human labor and it’s hard to retrain a production line of humans. All these factors and more, are going to conspire to make production to be more local. Most of chinas future consumers will remain in agrarian circumstances. Our economies are consumer based. And the hands on the spinning ice skater will get pulled in, causing it to spin faster. You think corporations have human rights now. Wait till robots have them.
by Bob Vasquez
Hey Mr. Robot, who is going to buy you or buy your products, when you put everyone out of work? Just asking.
by JC
Could be trouble when the leaders of China have to get creative with an extra 20 million newly unemployed young men.
by Bri
They have built future cities that are empty. Nobody can afford to live in them. They are building high speed railroads that no one will use. They are about to get a hair cut really bad.
by kz
See the book ‘Race Against the Machines’ mentioned here a couple months back…
by karl
Human personal servants will be seen as status symbols once everyone has a cheap robot butler.
by Bri
The robot butler will cook, clean, landscape, do household finances, entertain, etc
by Mr.X
Geeks won’t be alone anymore: I’ll try to sell them robot spouses ^^
by Gorden Russell
Don’t forget the Robopimp 5000.
by UConnRon
I agree with comments by Bri, chrisf, and Hoss. It will not be long before robots start producing slectronics like cell phones and tablets. See my take on the impact of technology on the future of society at rlabate.blogspot.com.
by GatorALLin
Maybe this fable needs to be updated from horse to a robot? Maybe the ending is still not written…. How would you end this fable?
A farmer had only one horse. One day, his horse ran away.
All the neighbors came by saying, “I’m so sorry. This is such bad news. You must be so upset.” The man just said, “We’ll see.”
A few days later, his horse came back with twenty wild horses. The man and his son corraled all 21 horses.
All the neighbors came by saying, “Congratulations! This is such good news. You must be so happy!” The man just said, “We’ll see.”
One of the wild horses kicked the man’s only son, breaking both his legs.
All the neighbors came by saying, “I’m so sorry. This is such bad news. You must be so upset.” The man just said, “We’ll see.”
The country went to war, and every able-bodied young man was drafted to fight. The war was terrible and killed every young man, but the farmer’s son was spared, since his broken legs prevented him from being drafted.
All the neighbors came by saying, “Congratulations! This is such good news. You must be so happy!” The man just said, “We’ll see.”
by Bri
Ultimately our story has a happy end. For now there is going to be much chaos. Many nefarious individuals will try and capitalize on the situation. There are other unseen forces at work that will quell this. For now it is best to prepare for siege. Form organizations that can lessen the short term impact. Learn hydroponics and vertical farming. Buy local products and keep local economies going.
by Mr.X
Depends on who you mean by we…
Happy end?What about existential risks? And the heat death of the universe…. well.^^
I agree, we’ll see.
But I am much more “optimistic” (would not call it that way since it’s based on relevant reasons) than the crocodile.
by Bri
I find you to be highly intelligent and engaging. Although I think our philosophies are very different and even opposed, I’d like it if you would flesh out your statements further. Your analysis of how to improve the perception of the transhumanist movement, was right on target. You also did it in a short time. Of all the commentors in these posts, your comment allude to many subtlies. I look forward to any thing that you write. Even if you attack, I look at it as a friendly chess match.
by Mr.X
If you want, we can play an actual chess game ^^
Thanks for you compliments, though I don’t think I deserve them.another thing we disagree on ;) I just return them to you.
I already wrote in another comment that I do not intend to attack anyone as person.
I see it this way: Thesis, Antithesis = Synthesis.We learn most from those we disagree with (mentors, etc aside).
Anyway: I make most of my thoughts on the topics here up on the go, which explains why they are rather abstract.I’ll try to be more specific.
Have a nice day.
by Bri
I haven’t played chess since I was in high school. You’d probably kick my a**. It could still be fun, I’d sure have to relearn fast. You are very aggressive in your thinking and that’s a good thing. This website is a little too sanitized for my tastes. It doesn’t bother me if someone attacks me. The real world is not so polite. We must abide by the rules set up by the creators of the website. Amara doesn’t take sides persay, she finds my post to be a little to close to over the line, in terms of the rules and I would expect that she disagrees with many of my positions. There is a line in the book of revelations that I think is very applicable. I don’t follow the Judeo, Christian, muslem religious point of view but I often feel in resonance to what it says. It goes something like this: if it is cold that is good and icky is hot that to is good but if it is tepid I shall spit it out. Your thinking is very aggressive and I like that. I won’t wish you a nice day. It could be a nice day or a bad day. I bid you to enjoy the day. Life would be so boring if it was always nice!
by Mr.X
I could say the same about my chess.But since I am younger that won’t mean much ^^
Now, that you said it-I am a rather agressive chess-player.When I started playing it I was very defensive.But I have the ability to switch my style, if I think that will influence my opponent.
In fact, in most strategical situations I seem to have the skill to be surprising.That way I won many games/ situations against people who are generally more skilled than me.
If I ever happen to play some tournaments again (played very successful locally, before I switched to other things- my “teacher” was not amused) I’ll build a very unorthodox repertoire.Offensive players with standard openings are just… standard and predictably.
I think a lot of the perceived agressiveness of my comments stems from the fact that I “write” my mind without all this socializing stuff.Sometimes with people I know, when I am helping them solve some problem. I’ll go as far as proclaiming things like “politicing around”, referals to authority, etc as “ape crap” (translation).
In fact, I was brought up to view lies, especially things like saying nice things without meaning them, as rude.
Dishonesty is almost seen as some form of “treason” here.
For example I’d never ask someone how he is without wanting to know.
In general I won’t lie unless I have to gain something.See how honest I am;) Of course it cost me nothing, since anyone who says he does not lie is assumed (rightly) to be a liar anyway.
If someone dislikes some Mr.X because of that, I could not care less.The only thing that could slightly annoy me would be to be banned just for having a different opinion.
But of course, when in Rome do as the Romans do.Which means, if I ever happen to visit an English speaking country (unlikely^^) I’ll change my behavior for that time.
The thing about censorship: We must take into account that this website bears Mr.Kurzweil’s name and I am sure he does not want to be associated with 4chan style ( exaggerated) behavior.
Nice is abstract anyway.I am wishing others nice days because I am a rather happy person.
This comes from the fact that I know the locus of control concept, shift my focus through (sometimes) exercises like “list 5 things you are grateful for” and make extensive use of reframing, for example seeing problems as challenges, seeking the lesson to learn when something bad happens, etc.
I wish you an exciting, unpredictable but still unlethal day:)
Ps: I am sure my comments are often pretty close to be over the line.
Pps: About the real world: That’s why I want governments to leave the internet mostly as is, since I do not want to be hindered by something I wrote 10/20 years ago.Society in general, for reasons of cohesion, dislikes unpoliteness.
by Gabriel
If you could Bri, could you please elaborate on these ‘unseen forces’? I’m a little curious on your meaning.
by Bri
I’m sorry I can’t for a number of reasons. It isn’t received well for one, but more specifically it involves very personal experiences. My earliest memory has always fascinated me. I was inside the middle of my chest looking up at myself gagging on some fluid as my mother was teaching me to drink from a glass. There were no words just the though ” I can’t believe I’m going to have to learn how to do this again! I’ve always known that I’ve lived before, so my perspective is very different than most peoples. I’ve also always been aware of the conflict that is about to unfold. Not of the details, but of the general outcome. My perceptions of reality wouldn’t make sense if it resolved another way. I’ve hidden my thoughts from people my whole life. Very few have heard me talk of it. Even my wife had absolutely no knowledge of my psychic abilities. She wouldn’t understand. Very few of you would understand. For me it is inescapable and I have spent my whole life not really trying to understand, it all has always made perfect sense to me, not necessarily trying to prove it’s validity, I have done many tests for my own proofs, even calling people up and telling them what they were doing, but rather trying to evoke a clearer understanding of how things really function. Let’s just say it’s going to get really ugly for awhile and then it gets nice, really nice. A very different reality than what we are familiar with.
by Gabriel
:), Well then…in general, could you elaborate on your views? or at least where you have posted them before? You sound like you have very fine-tuned beliefs and I’m curious on learning more about them.
by GatorALLin
…turns out there is this thing called evolution…. what if you can’t stop it, even if you wanted to…..?
…for living things that process of evolution is so slow you can’t really notice the changes…. but for technology you can see that change….and some would argue it is increasing at an ever increasing rate. trying to stop the progress, or process of evolution is a bit like trying to stop the weather…. its on a path… your choice to complain about the rain…or be glad we get rain… doesn’t really matter, you still get the weather…
watching you stand out in the rain and complain about it…… it gets harder to worry about you when there are so many umbrellas out there if you decide to look for them…. is that tree over there an umbrella or a lighting rod…we will see… but choosing not to decide, you still have made a choice.
if you take on the role of the victim, I can guess you will see the negative. If you buy into fear or hate change, it may prove to say more about you at some point than the thing you hate.
JustMy2cents…that and $5 will buy you a cup of coffee
by TomZarek
“This might mean lost jobs for an already struggling low-skill workforce. But it could also help the United States compete in the global manufacturing market against countries that offer low-wage labor.”
This kind of thinking has to stop. It only makes sense if we have a system that will, get ready for the bad word, redistribute the profits being hoarded by the owner/investment class to the population that is being and will only be further squeezed out of the work force. Free trade agreements that make wage competition a race to the bottom have an identical effect as a domestic manufacturing base that is completely automated. Jobs are lost to overseas workers because the well being of domestic workers is simply not a factor in the profit calculations of those at the top. These policies being “good for the United States” only make sense if you consider corporations and the investor class that they enrich as “the United States”. The system must begin to adapt to compensate for the shrinking workforce requirements effect on the population or it will foment revolution.
by Qwerty Jones
There is nothing stopping you from joining the investor class.
by chrisf
beautifully put, 100% agree
by Bri
Good luck on that one.
by Victor Vurpillat
In the comming world of Abundance we are going to have to rethink our economics system and create a guarenteed annual income to every family. Consumers are going to be more valuble than low skilled workers.
by Bri
If we entrust the whole system to benevolent AI, all corporations could be linked. The finances of all companies would go into a central banking system. You would withdraw money to acquire something and the money would end up back in the bank. AI would alter production in accordance to consumption. In effect we would all be trillionaires. There is only so much that any one person could consume. We all could have the most jacked pads( outrageous houses), filled with the latest tech!
by Bri
If we all keep calm and support each other during the years of financial collapse, as robots take all jobs, we could achieve this with minimal pain. We can’t revolt. We must keep focused on the goal at hand. If we act peacefully we can force the one percent that owns it all now to give up control. They will have no choice at some point. We will reach a point soon of total financial collapse. This should start to happen when AI gets coupled with robots. That’s the start of the final spin of the ice skater, as it loses momentum.
by Gabriel
What worries me Bri, is that most people aren’t even aware of this ‘goal’…that most people aren’t aware of any of this stuff — a recent article I read showed that almost half of Americans don’t even believe in evolution of any sort whatsoever….I’m sick and tired of the rampant cynicism, and yet I wonder if people really are ready if all of this stuff begins to happen faster and faster…they simply won’t understand what’s going on, nevermind be able to keep up.
If things happen the way transhumanists say, these next few decades will be extremely and increasingly difficult for many many people, simply because their beliefs completely contradict the upcoming reality and/or they simply aren’t aware of it whatsoever. I want to be as optimistic as Kurzweil that we can make it through this ‘transition’ period as seamless as possible, but he mentions himself how reflexive fundamentalist type thinking can exacerbate all sorts of suffering…and when world-changing events like the type transhumanists talk about start happening exponentially quicker, I worry that suffering will occur explosive out of reflexive-type thinking simply because people are unprepared, can’t understand what’s going on, or simply don’t want too.
I’m not implying, nor hoping, their will be this massive revolt like many people around me are seemingly looking forward too (I never knew a tough economy was proof their is this religious world-ending apocolypse is right around the corner >_>) — I guess their is simply a part of me that worries if things really will go as smoothly and peacefully as we all hope it will…wouldn’t be the first time I was proven wrong.
by Bill
You can revolt without violence. Martin Luther King and Gandhi showed us that. And such a peaceful revolt is happening now and will continue to build as more people feel themselves becoming disenfranchised. You’re right about the 1% having no choice at some point. If anything else, they still need people to buy what they are selling and rely on the mass market system.
by karl
With the continued evolution of 3D printers and vertical farming, the only thing needed is access to raw materials, model designs, and energy. By 2020, most of what we consider the Upper Middle Class will be able to completely produce for themselves all the basic necessities (food, clothing, electronics, furniture, sports equipment) and many specialized foods and luxury items.
by Hoss
Replacing the low-wage Chinese manufacturing jobs is one thing, but most people will sit up and take note when Davinci 10.0 performs a quadruple bypass in an ambulance, or Watson 5.0 wins a high profile murder trial after shredding a team of lawyers in a closing argument.
by GatorALLin
…especially when they are the ones ridding in the back of that ambulance and need the quadruple bypass done on the way to the hospital…….too late once you get there dead….
by Bri
You think DARAPA hasn’t thought about an autonomous robot that could auto correct it’s hands while doing field surgery during enemy bombing. They already have had tremendous success saving lives by administering care right in the field of battle. The first moments are crucial to survival. Keeping the brain alive is the central problem. All the other tissues can withstand oxygen loss for quite awhile. Besides the other tissue types can be regenerated. Just stop the blood loss and oxygenate the brain. Ship them out to field hospitals outside of the actual battle front, use 3d cell printing tech to replicate according to the scanned information stored from before battle, and in no time the wounded would be back on their feet. You mustn’t be afraid to dream bigger darling ( from the movie Inception).
by Bri
Absolutely no way to compete against them.
by thomas
I not agree more. All levels of our workforce are being transformed by the paradigm shift you so aptly describe.
by Gorden Russell
You’re not whistling Dixie, Hoss. In ten years you will go to a clinic and every examination room will have an Autodoc that does the complete exam, then the single doctor on the floor will come in, look at the report, shake your hand and go away.
by Bri
Why wouldn’t your home robot. And who would need the doctor. The future Watson program your home healthcare robot would access with the tricorder info would answer far faster than any human can and better than the best trained specialist. In fact it would access a database of all the best experts experiences.
by Gorden Russell
Baxter will have to start paying the unemployment insurance taxes and the FICA taxes of the workers who are replaced.
by snake0
I didn’t realize we paid tax to China and Indonesia…
by chrisf
Even if it’s true that it’s only Chinese jobs that are going to be eliminated by this “first wave”, I imagine that there will be a knock-on effect in the US and other service-based economies. All those displaced workers will need to go somewhere – they will have no choice but to compete for knowledge-based jobs, further driving down global wages. True, certain highly-skilled professions will remain “safe” for a while – but i’d expect to see downward pressure on relatively low skill office jobs such as paralegals, journalists, programmers etc. A rather scary prospect, but there’s no way of stopping it….
by Bri
Right on target.
by GatorALLin
…..No actually….. Baxter will not have to pay the unemployment insurance… but their company will have to pay for the taxes on profits…. unless of course you are smart like apple and setup offshore accounts and don’t pay your taxes…. and get off shore labor and build better products than others do in the USA….. hey wait.. I love the apple thingy…. Are they just being smart or are they cheating the usa?. Hard to complain when were in line for the new iPhone5… http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-500395_162-57423917/report-apple-legally-avoids-billions-in-taxes/
by Dan Tanna
Looks like a few Occupy scum slipped past the gatekeepers here.
by Bri
These robots will change the dynamics of international trade. The country affected the most will be China. The robots are still crude. In a few years they will start to evolve very quickly, as the companies that make them get more finance.. Everybody around the world will have to focus on upper level skilled jobs, until AI and the rapidly developing robotic platforms start to take away those jobs too. Robots are still hampered by energy issues and AI issues. Five to ten years from now, those issues will start to fall. Then they will evolve at a dizzying pace. They will be everywhere.
by SpottedMarley
“This might mean lost jobs for an already struggling low-skill workforce. But it could also help the “… rich, educated, white people… “compete in the global manufacturing market against” … rich, educated, Asian and Indian people… “that offer low-wage labor.”
there. fixed.
by Bri
You mean the one percent that think they should rule because we don’t have what it takes to govern properly.