Vernor Vinge is optimistic about the collapse of civilization
March 22, 2012 | Source: Wired
Noted author and futurist Vernor Vinge is surprisingly optimistic when it comes to the prospect of civilization collapsing.
“I think that [civilization] coming back would actually be a very big surprise,” he says in this week’s episode of the Geek’s Guide to the Galaxy podcast. “The difference between us and us 10,000 years ago is … we know it can be done.”
But could humanity really claw its way back after a complete collapse? Haven’t we plundered the planet’s resources in ways that would be impossible to repeat?
“I disagree with that,” says Vinge. “With one exception — fossil fuels. But the stuff that we mine otherwise? We have concentrated that. I imagine that ruins of cities are richer ore fields than most of the natural ore fields we have used historically.”
In an interview, Vernor Vinge talks about living to be 100,000, how the space program could endanger Earth, and how the Technological Singularity might unfold.
Comments (6)
by DCWhatthe
Interesting ruminations, in the Wired article. A point that always leaves me with hope, is that some of these futurists (including Mr. Vinge) realize the importance of Black Swan thinking.
by Joe
With so many anti groups it is no wonder people feel the end is near. When is the last time you read an article, framed in a positive light, about a successful person that was bold, like to brag, and said the world was theirs?
When was the last time you read an article the was pro government and not crazy anti?
by gaoptimize
I find this incredibly interesting that Mr.Vinge essentially takes it as a fait accompli that a collapse will happen, and this view is effectively endorsed by this site by publishing it.
I agree there will be an economic collapse to resolve politically irresolvable imbalances, mal-investment, and structural problems. But my view is this will be rather short, violent, and like the 1980 forest fires at Yellowstone, create the conditions for unprecedented growth towards the singularity.
by Satan
“I strongly suspect there is a political element to the negative”
The root of that is psychological. What kind of people need more control over themseleves and see others controlled. What kind of peope need to feel the world is falling apart.
by Spikosauropod
As pointed out in another article on this site “Dear science fiction writers: stop being so pessimistic!” we seem to be in a downward spiral regarding the notion of civilization collapsing. Where is all this pessimism coming from?
War is less likely than ever. We are learning that industry and ecology can exist in harmony. (Most modern damage to the environment comes from poor third world farmers who slash and burn.) Much of western civilization is deeply in debt, but we are all in debt to each other, so that problem is bound to work itself out. People are living longer than ever. Technology is advancing at a breathtaking pace. Computers and the internet have added a whole new dimension to our lives. New technologies promise to eliminate disease and even give us all extended, possibly indefinite, lifespans.
Where is all this pessimism coming from?
Perhaps it is related to the observation by Mac in the “Dear science fiction writers” comment string:
“I strongly suspect there is a political element to the negative, as those who desire to empower government gain support for government by fixating on the ‘negative’ that needs to be ‘fixed’ by government…….a society that feels it is helpless as individuals is more prone to turn toward government solutions to problems.”
Are we all the victims of political activists trying to scare us into becoming sheeple?
by steve
Amen!