Forbes | The SAP Future Series

Digital technology’s exponential growth curve foretells avalanche of business disruption
October 7, 2015

Forbes — June 10, 2015 | Dan Wellers

This is a summary. Read original article in full here.

Processor speed, data storage, bandwidth, connected devices and sensors are leaping ahead exponentially. That’s how it is with digital technologies.

Ray Kurzweil predicted progress in this century could be of equal magnitude to all progress over the last 200 centuries. The fundamental driver behind this is the relentless digitization of everything.

That’s because once something is digitized it can be copied infinitely, perfectly every time, and made immediately available to everyone. It also can be offered nearly for free, because the marginal cost of a digital asset is essentially zero. These are the forces that ignite exponential growth — and the rapid disruption of business models, industries, and practically everything.

Consider these facts:

  • In 2015 Airbnb will become the largest hotel chain in the world, launched in 2008, with more than 850,000 rooms, and without owning any hotels.
  • From 2012 to 2014, Uber consumed 65% of San Francisco’s taxi business.
  • Advances in artificial intelligence and robotics put 47% of US employment — over 60 million jobs — at high risk of being replaced in the next decade.
  • 10 million new autonomous vehicles per year may be entering US highways by 2030.
  • Today’s sensors are 1 billion times better — 1000x lighter, 1000x cheaper, 1000x the resolution — than only 40 years ago. By 2030, 100 trillion sensors could be operational world-wide.
  • DNA sequencing cost dropped precipitously — from $1 billion to $5,000 —  in 15 years. By 2020 could be $0.01.
  • In 2000 it took $5,000,000 to launch an internet start-up. Today the cost is less than $5,000.

Some examples:

1. Self-driving vehicles will dramatically change the driver and passenger experiences, increase productivity and safety, and reduce the need to own vehicles for personal use. The automobile, insurance, legal, and transportation industries will all feel the impact.

2. Bitcoin threatens to undermine the traditional roles played by banks and payment systems by providing a viable alternative to traditional currency and value transfer methods.

3. 3D printing promises to render product complexity essentially free, by bypassing the physical limits of how we make and ship things. This will fundamentally change the manufacturing and distribution industries.

4. Digital biofabrication and DNA sequencing will transform healthcare by greatly extending lifespans and making ultra-personalized medicine available to billions.

5. Organizational structure, the nature of work, and limits of human performance will be re-thought as leadership, management, and education are transformed to fit our digital age.

The SAP Futures Series will explore digital disruptions and the possible futures being shaped by technology.

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