Crowdsourcing a TEDx talk: what are the three most important trends shaping humankind’s future in the next 10 years?
January 19, 2012 by Amara D. Angelica
Eric Ezechieli
We received an interesting email from sustainability expert/Singularity University grad Eric Ezechieli:
On January 27, I will be delivering a TEDx Trieste presentation, and I will speak in ‘”Exponentialish.” In exponential times, half a gallon of brain does not suffice to keep up with what is going on, and in any case a single perspective is limited.
So, I am asking for your help: could you please respond to the question in a survey? I am asking you about the 3 top trends/events/news stories you have come across lately, and provide examples.
I am not talking about technology in a strict sense; you may want to highlight the Arab Spring, or the 30 floor building built in China in 15 days. The format is willingly quite open, so I invite you to just write what pops up to your mind.
If you indicate your email in the survey, I will share the results. Estimated time for completion: 1–2 minutes. The survey closes at 8.00 am on Friday January 20th, CET. Thank You Very Much!
Ezechieli invited KurzweilAI readers to participate in the survey (the only question: “What are the three most important trends shaping humankind’s future in the next 10 years?”).
We followed up with a few questions of our own:
Will you select specific responses, or all?
EE: I intend to focus on trends on which there is greater consensus.
Will you cite the specific individuals whose trends you select?
EE: I did not plan to do so, I wanted to have multiple perspectives, I was inspired by Asimov’s logic : ).
Will you provide evidence for the trends, or for respondents’ expertise, or will this be just an opinion survey?
EE: At this stage, I do not pretend this experiment to be “scientific,” even if we could definitely build something robust on this scheme. So, more of the second, but it would be very interesting to structure this and make it a real research project. Any ideas about how to do that?
I’m sure our readers will have ideas (which they can add to comments below). Your question is very broad. Would you consider also asking some more specific questions?
EE: You are right, I am aware about this, but I wanted to get a broad perception/perspective, and the time I have available is too short for something which could have scientific value.
How will you rank the answers? How will know which ones are most credible? What are your criteria?
EE: My idea at this stage is not to rank them, because my assumption is that the core trends will be strongly interconnected with each other. But I may change my mind after analyzing the results. My take is that more people converge on specific areas, those are likely to be the most important ones. I will use my own personal judgement, and my personal knowledge of many of the respondents. I may research their background (if they include an email address) to understand their level of credibility.
Thanks, Eric. We look forward to posting the video of your TedX talk.
Comments (26)
by desert
1. Increase in the number of innocent people being killed
2. decrease of personal freedom, justice, equality and peace
3. the extinction of the capitalistic system coupled with the death of fake money
by weightloss55
ya its v.good
by Snazster
Seriously?
Long term:
1) AI versus human intelligence amplification
2) Life extension
3) Resource allocation in a society with very few productive jobs (and billions of artists, athletes, gamers, entertainers, etc.)
Short term:
1) Automation
2) Privacy
3) Environmentalism/Energy/Pollution
Overriding issue of the century: “How do define what is a human being.”
Only possible answer but only after ENORMOUS troubles: “A human being defines itself by its actions.”
While settling things for Synthetic Intelligences and enhanced animals and virtualized homo sapiens, the battle will immediately switch to whether or not creatures like serial killers are human. :p
by Art
1. Using the ocean’s tides to generate electricity (a free and renewable energy source)
2. Tapping into the Earth’s geothermal reserves to obtain heat (another free and renewable energy source)
3. A complete change in consciousness where the divide between male and female, rich and poor will be broken down and balanced out
by jgrimaldi
Hexacopters. Sky robots to do our errands and make deliveries. Navigable sky avatars to give us a remote view of our world.
by luciano
how can i watch this ???
by wiseman
aye, I’ve been looking for it since the 27th, anyone?
by Snake Oil Baron
1) Government default becomes part of a repeating cycle.
2) This loss of financial power, coupled with technologies which empower indeviduals and the state’s intrinsic need to expand will lead to mounting pressure for more centralized power
by Snake Oil Baron
3) All commenting systems will allow for editing so words like “indevidual” can be quickly repaired.
by eric ezechieli
Thank you everyone for your precious insights so far. I got over 180 more responses to the survey linked in the post. Now I need to crowdsource some I or AI to make real meaning out of that. I’ll keep you posted.
by Charles I. Scudder Jr
Three Important Trends:
1. The diminution of America’s “Llight to the World” status.
2. Reduction in Military influence in politics.
3. More problem solving, less special interest government at all levels.
by RalfLippold
My three bets are:
#OpenEducation (with use of technology across boundaries)
#LeanStartup (entrepreneurs accelerating their business ideas into reality)
#Semperoper (as a role model for how opera & ballet, http://bit.ly/SemperoperBallett, is pulling science, and technology into the future)
Excellent initiative Eric! Congratulations!!!
by FinHead
1) The rise of 3D printing as a home appliance. People will routinely access online marketplaces like Thingiverse to purchase and download common household items.
2) Augmented Reality displays will become more prevalent in smartphones, tvs, internet, car displays, visual glasses, etc…
3) Steampunk, Victorian, Western, and old styles will continue to rise in popularity as people find a way to escape the onslaught of technology and invasive media and marketing.
by toasterdad
I didn’t see a way to edit my post; sorry for double posting.
inaway@gmail.com
by brian123
10 years is a long time nowadays. The most important trends in the 10th year might be created in the 9th year. Based on what’s happening in “my view of the world” today, most important trends are:
1) information speed, analysis tools, and (potential) increased government intervention. Maybe that’s 3 already.
2) mainstreaming effect/reaction of the general population envisioning the world as a place that will undergo systematic change at an increasing rate of speed.
3) methods of determining priorities (post analysis), as more eyes shift focus to the future.
by PaulGillett
In no particular order:
Pervasive internet / computers (only 25% of global population online)
Renewable energy
Growth of China
by virtualted
1. Political Globalization – new global constitution of basic human rights – governance by global representative democracy trending to participatory democracy as we enter the mid-century
2. Genomics and personalized medicine – curing diseases and lengthening lifespans – merging of biology with MEMS / NEMS.
3. Nanorobotics – changing current scarcity economics to new paradigm of abundance economics (nanofactories for food and products – using molecular “toner” and intelligence via the web).
by toasterdad
1. Solar Energy following its exponential expansion track to provide 100% of the energy needed, especially decentralized
2. Digital partnerships with technologies like Siri and Majel as they mature into a more natural extension of ourselves
3. automation and democratization: 3d printing and exponentially advancing robotics replaces millions of jobs, but the cost of living drops substantially
by Ximlab
I’m more worried about the basics. Although this may not be what the survey is asking:
- Solar cell research, best hope for “infinite” energy along with nuclear fusion.
- Vertical agriculture, best hope to feed 10billion+ people.
- Desalinization, best hope (i think), to provide water for 10billion+ people.
If these 3 go fine, all the rest should come along naturally. If one of these 3 fail, civilization is in trouble it would seem.
by Giulio Prisco
I wish I could write about mind uploading, space exploration, and all the cool technologies that have been mentioned in previous comments. But I think in the next 10 years the three most important trends shaping humankind’s future will be:
The conflict between the persons who want to be free, and the establishment (both “right-wing” large financial/corporate interests and “left-wing” nanny-state control freaks) that does not want the people to be free.
The conflict between the rich “North” and the poor “South,” combined with the emerging power of China, which despite its growing affluence remains in conflict with the “North,” and the conflict between the Islamic world and the West.
The conflict between the rich and poor in the “North.” The possible collapse of the Western financial system can only be averted by very radical reforms, but of course the rich want to make the poor pay.
by Wiggletoes
Intelligence is what separates us from other animals so those tools which enhances our intelligence is that which are the most important trends shaping humankinds future, i.e., IBM Watson type computers in the cloud coupled with the Majel type app’s on our smart phones.
by marcalpv@cox.net
1. Progress in NLP especially towards an electronic reader. Such a development will help us use the computer to help understand and use all the knowledge encoded in our books.
2. Robot technology. Automation of control of our mobile and stationary machines.
3. Nanotechnolgy in biological as well as inorganic materials (ala Drexler)
by scorpio13
i THINK peoples attitudes to life would see the biggest change to people as technology explains how cells work how the planets work how stars are formed how everything works. People will have this knowledge and adjust their life to match this new knowledge people will change .
by gbrennan
1. Progress in neuroscience is really getting past the knee of the exponential curve. The connectome projects will not only lead to advances in health care, but will make some Singularity visions closer to reality. The cross-dynamics between neuroscience and AI development will continue to advance both areas dramatically.
2. Automation and robotics. The impact of cloud robotics (Google ROS) is going to be incredible. 3D scanning and image retrieval by robots via the cloud, as well as optimization algorithms will really push robotics to the next level.
3. Genomics. Sequencing is fast and cheap now. This will mean personalized medicine, and the beginning of customized gene augmentation and correction.
http://www.33rdsquare.com
by Randy912
1. Genome sequencing, as exhibited by Ion Torrent’s brand new “$1000 Genome,” and its relation to the medical field.
2. The implementation of virtual 3D worlds for use in the educational environment, specifically K-12.
3. The economic changes brought about by robots eliminating the requirement of certain human jobs, such as manual labor.
by star0
I would say:
1. The explosion of smartphone use in the developing world. This has enormous consequences on health, education, employment, and geopolitics.
2. Artificial tissues and organs, by which I mean to include blood and skin. It could mean the difference between life and death for millions of people in the coming years.
3. The rise in automation, including industrial 3D printing. Not only will it impact our economy and employment, but it has the potential to totally reverse global economic trends: e.g., with industrial 3D printing, the U.S. may not have to rely on China anymore to manufacture its goods. Jaron Lanier wrote about this in the following article:
http://edge.org/conversation/the-local-global-flip